re: Nate Silver, most outcomes show republicans retain house

Tomorrow may be epic. When I get home from the polling station tomorrow afternoon I am going to settle down with a bottle of Blanton's and a couple of Cubanos and enjoy the rest of the evening.

Either way, it's going to be fun.

May smoke some Tangerine Dream around midnight or so if it's called for.

He’s basically saying the obvious which is that predicting the house is very hard because there are a shite load of tight races. That doesn’t really jive with the fact that his model says there’s an 85% likelihood that the Dems take the house.

This backpedaling is getting funny

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So they have a 4 in 5 shot of winning but most of the scenarios don’t have them winning the house?

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I'm assuming he means that the shear number of outcomes (like all of the .001% chance outcomes) break around the +23 D mark but that when you account for likelihood, the Dems have a 4 in 5 chance of gaining a majority. He has a long article from yesterday on this. The snippet posted here is just that.

Silver said he has no clue if the polls are accurate, based on the last fe years what possibly makes you think they are?

Why are you melting so hard?

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Also to Staaaaanix, link me ANYTHING that shows the Rs have a chance and I’ll debunk it’s inacuracies or help you understand your misinterpretation.

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Um, Nate Silver’s models which you just referenced display around a 20% chance that GOP retains the House.

Stupid, honest people!

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His latest update still has it at 86%.

...not that you would understand any of it

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How does that jive with...

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"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."

"Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."

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?

Sounds like he's hedging or just full of shite.

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How does that jive with...

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It’s quite simple, some outcomes are more likely than others. Just because there are more possible combinations/outcomes doesn’t mean they’re all equal. Some outcomes are highly probable, some are not.

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Melt

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You’ve yet to contribute anything to this discussion other than “hahaha” and “melt”.

You’ve clearly demonstrated your lack of understanding with respects to general statistical knowledge and how little information you know in general about this topic.

Don’t troll harder, troll smarter...if you can.

You’re the only one in the thread that made a clearly asinine statement showing a fundamental misinterpretation of the article, so spare us your intellectual superiority spiel.