re: I am going into Tuesday night with the expectation that the dems will win the house

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Can I get an advance copy? Lol

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Sorry, not done yet.

But here’s something you can do for your own sanity....

Go to RealClearPolitics.com and look at their House map and all their “toss-ups”.

Click on all the Republican ones, and anyone you see that’s D+3 RCP average or LESS, consider it a Solid R lean.

They use NYT/Sienna and Monmouth polls for almost all these, and every single one of them has a ridiculous +Dem skew of +5 to +10, with only like 800-1200 of 40,000-50,000 people answering calls.

These are the most absurd polls I’ve ever seen.

A Republican incumbent that won his race by +15.0, in a district that Trump won by +8.0, they are showing as a +3.0 Dem in the NYT poll, for instance, and are calling this a “toss-up” as a result.

And more than half of their 40 toss-ups are just like this.

These NYT and Monmouth polls are beyond biased and full of shite. They are doing exactly what they did in 2016. Asinine +Dem skews, super low sampling turnout, and they are not just ignoring the silent/secret Trump voter, but they are trying to insist to us that Independents are mostly leaning Dem and that the youth vote will come out strong on Tuesday.

None of that is true, and the polls are crap.

Rule of thumb at this point, take any poll you see on RCP and add +5R/-5D and it’ll be significantly more accurate.

At this moment, I’ll be extremely surprised if Dems end up with more then a +15 net in the House, and I firmly believe it will be a +10 or even slightly less.