- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Anyone have any experience with an MBA in data and analytics?
Posted on 10/8/18 at 8:34 am to RoyalWe
Posted on 10/8/18 at 8:34 am to RoyalWe
quote:
So, you can choose which way you think it will go. Strong employment = strong economy = bull market or strong employment = rising yields = falling market. My position is that if the market fundamentals are strong and the Fed Chairman echo's that, then bet the market.
That's what I'm saying too, so I think we're in partial agreement here, at least for the very short-term. Expected interest rate hikes from accelerating nominal inflation and low real GDP growth is bearish, but expected interest rate hikes from low nominal inflation and good real GDP growth is bullish. Payroll figures got adjusted up massively for both July and August, so that's a sign that the Fed will tighten on good economic news, and why I'm not totally sold yet on the recent exploding-bond-yields correction narrative.
quote:
I think trying to understand is interesting but at the end of the day your guess will be as good as mine.
Yeah, probably so, but if the S&P 500 drops to its 200-day MA, then I will be out of the U.S. equities market.
EDIT: Also, before someone else chimes in and says it, I should make it clear--the spiking interest rates for 10-year and 30-year USTs are not totally (or even mostly) within the control of the Fed. Spikes that far down the yield curve are being caused either by long-term nominal growth expectations, or other factors related to bond supply and global demand; and I don't think long-term growth expectations are a reasonably plausible cause.
This post was edited on 10/8/18 at 8:51 am
2
Posted on 10/9/18 at 4:12 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Final takeaway = I'm bearish on U.S. stocks over the next 10-12 years, but I see no reason to allocate a lower percentage of your portfolio to stocks based on recent events from the last 3-4 weeks. I've been getting killed on my bonds lately, but I'm going to stick with my 20% allocation in U.S. equities until I see a clearer sign that 9-10-month stock price momentum has been broken.
OK, maybe saying "this is the time to short" was getting a little ahead of myself. What you just posted in the first sentence is ultimately what matters. Shiller has actually said almost the exact same thing: Predicting US equity fate over the next few months is quite difficult, but over the next 10 years, it is much clearer.
Posted on 10/9/18 at 4:49 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
EDIT: Also, before someone else chimes in and says it, I should make it clear--the spiking interest rates for 10-year and 30-year USTs are not totally (or even mostly) within the control of the Fed. Spikes that far down the yield curve are being caused either by long-term nominal growth expectations, or other factors related to bond supply and global demand; and I don't think long-term growth expectations are a reasonably plausible cause.
Is there any research out there on long duration insurers shifting investing strategy?
Based on insurance regulation regarding investments, a shift back into UST would be extremely attractive at the right yield
Posted on 10/9/18 at 6:30 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Final takeaway = I'm bearish on U.S. stocks over the next 10-12 years, but I see no reason to allocate a lower percentage of your portfolio to stocks based on recent events from the last 3-4 weeks. I've been getting killed on my bonds lately, but I'm going to stick with my 20% allocation in U.S. equities until I see a clearer sign that 9-10-month stock price momentum has been broken.
What does your portfolio look like out of curiosity?
Posted on 10/9/18 at 9:18 pm to GenesChin
It's pretty simple. An ETF for U.S. equities, an ETF for U.S. bonds, and some cash. I vary the allocations based on a system that I'm developing, based on whether I see positive or negative indications for long-term metrics (like non-fin. market cap / GVA), medium-term metrics (like 9-month momentum), and short-term metrics (like dispersion and high-yield spreads). The primary motivation is to be a little over 100% invested in U.S. equity indices most of the time, while also being able to ease off in particularly dangerous periods based on my readings of where we are in the long-term market cycle. It's still a work in progress.
Posted on 10/9/18 at 9:34 pm to GenesChin
"Is there any research out there on long duration insurers shifting investing strategy?"
Probably, but I'm not too well acquainted with it. Of the links I gave earlier, the closest to answering your question would likely be this one:
That article emphasizes the increase in U.S. bond supply more than anything else (and foreign demand after that), and it doesn't really talk about insurers, but it does mention a Fed study from last year claiming that the household sector was the primary driver of shifting investing strategy in the wake of QE.
But the referenced portion of that Fed study comes from a 2015 article by Carpenter et al., " Analyzing Federal Reserve asset purchases: From whom does the Fed buy?", and then infers that the reverse occurs from an unwinding of QE. I know that's not long duration insurers, but it's the closest thing I can find in the realm of shifting investing strategies.
Probably, but I'm not too well acquainted with it. Of the links I gave earlier, the closest to answering your question would likely be this one:
quote:
GMM (9/24): " The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0"
That article emphasizes the increase in U.S. bond supply more than anything else (and foreign demand after that), and it doesn't really talk about insurers, but it does mention a Fed study from last year claiming that the household sector was the primary driver of shifting investing strategy in the wake of QE.
But the referenced portion of that Fed study comes from a 2015 article by Carpenter et al., " Analyzing Federal Reserve asset purchases: From whom does the Fed buy?", and then infers that the reverse occurs from an unwinding of QE. I know that's not long duration insurers, but it's the closest thing I can find in the realm of shifting investing strategies.
Posted on 10/10/18 at 2:17 pm to Doc Fenton
Y'all hijacked the shite out of this thread. 
To the OP - I was moved into analytics in my company earlier this year. I have taken tons of online classes on coding and stats and can recommend a good list if you are interested.
Start with learning SQL (which is pretty easy) then pick either R or Python to focus on. I recommend Python first.
To the OP - I was moved into analytics in my company earlier this year. I have taken tons of online classes on coding and stats and can recommend a good list if you are interested.
Start with learning SQL (which is pretty easy) then pick either R or Python to focus on. I recommend Python first.
Posted on 10/10/18 at 2:25 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
To the OP - I was moved into analytics in my company earlier this year. I have taken tons of online classes on coding and stats and can recommend a good list if you are interested.
Start with learning SQL (which is pretty easy) then pick either R or Python to focus on. I recommend Python first
Please, I think so far the mini masters linked by Lynx is my number one option.
Posted on 10/10/18 at 4:30 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
I've done some R programming and have worked with consulting Data Engineers / Scientists at McKinsey & Company. I asked them about the "R versus Python" deal, and they said if you're just doing analysis for yourself then go with R. If you are doing it for other people and/or want to integrate with apps then go with Python.
Posted on 10/10/18 at 5:12 pm to RoyalWe
I prefer using Alteryx...built on top of R but with a nice GUI interface and easy to read object-based workflows. Democratization of big data capability for folks that aren’t able to completely retool their skill sets technically.
Posted on 10/10/18 at 5:44 pm to lynxcat
quote:
I prefer using Alteryx
What we use
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:37 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Y'all hijacked the shite out of this thread.
It's what I do. ;)
Anyway, I'm now out of U.S. equities again, and dipped slightly into SPXU. The 50d MA for the S&P 500 is still nearly 4% above the 200d MA, but the index is now below both its 200d MA and its price from 9-months prior. The death cross will come eventually, but for now it still seems a bit on the horizon.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:39 pm to Doc Fenton
Do death crosses actually happen though? Feel like I read it was bs
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:51 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Something happens that is called a death cross, but I guess you are asking if it's really the most useful statistic, and honestly, it probably isn't. Most academic momentum studies are based on ordinary lag periods, without mixing two different MAs into a designed trading strategy. That being said, there have been studies based on 50-200-day crosses indicating that they are statistically useful, such as this one from Mebane Faber. But more to the point, it's a classic indicator that is still widely cited for good reason. I wouldn't devise a strategy around using it in isolation or anything, but it's a useful rule-of-thumb type of benchmark for indicating when you might want to switch from the dipping-your-toe-in-the-water phase, to the big-confident-directional-investment phase.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:43 pm to Doc Fenton
Cool thank you
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News