Halfway to Realignment Status Report

This off-season marks the halfway point to the next big era of conference realignment in college football when most of the media contracts come up for renewal.

Halfway into this era lets take a look at what the landscape actually looks like as we head towards the next era.

Doing great since 2011 Realignment:

Mizzou, Rutgers, Maryland, Texas A&M

All of these programs got a big pay upgrade (especially Rutgers), and are well positioned no matter what happens in the future of the sport in one of the top two conferences

Utah, TCU, WVU, Louisville

Not part of the top two conferences, but they avoided being locked in the other 5 conferences.

College football fans

Thanks to an explosion of channels to see our favorite teams post-realignment, for most fans the days of missing games due to a lack of a broadcast are long gone. This is the golden era for college football fans, as grandma is still subsidizing our favorite sport and its easier than ever to watch a pile of games each weekend.

Doing ok since 2011 Realignment

The ACC conference

Once seen as a potential place for the SEC or even Big 12 to poach from, now with some recent national titles this conference looks stable for the long-term.

The Big 12

Everyone thought that the Big 12 would limp through this era, but thanks to a nice revenue deal and success of their top programs in the playoffs (ok, just OU) this conference might still have some life left in it. It isn't the worst off Power 5 conference, that is for sure.

Notre Dame

They navigated the landscape better than some, and put themselves in a position where they have a lot of options in the next era including the obvious one of just joining the ACC fulltime.

Not doing great after 2011 Realignment

The PAC 12

In retrospect the PAC ended up being the biggest loser last round. They went from almost having a PAC 16 that spanned half the country, to having a regionally locked PAC 12 with a conference network that is not bringing in near the money they thought it would. Now they are falling behind other Power 5 conferences in revenue, missing playoffs, and overall seem like the weakling of the bunch. I expect them to make big moves next realignment cycle to try and fix these problems.

The Longhorn Network

Texas thought that the LHN would build a moat around their program, and instead its been an anchor around their neck. As a business venture its unsuccessful, and its relegates the games played on it to obscurity. What was once viewed as the future of the sport is now the example of what not to do. Only upside is the money Texas gets from it, but that contract also locks them beyond the Big 12 GOR so who knows what will happen.

ESPN

The sports king has been taken down a peg by streaming services, and soon the entire model of bundled cable channels subsidizing college football will fall apart. The ACC Channel will probably never come thanks to this changing environment, and soon maybe even the SEC Network might find its revenues inching backwards.

College Football Traditions

The 2011 realignment did a number on traditional rivalries in the sport, and it only looks to get worse going forward. Amazon and Netflix (aka the guys who will be making the big decisions next cycle) have already made it clear they don't care about the traditions in place so I expect even more rivalries to die next round.

Other five conferences

At the end of the BCS era we saw "BCS Busters" like TCU and Boise St keep their coaches and rise up the rankings year after year in an attempt to break through the glass ceiling. In the new era none of these conferences have even sniffed a playoff, and the closest thing to a cinderella (UCF) lost their coach almost immediately after they had a great year. This group gets more and more marginalized, which will make these programs more desperate to move next time. The Big 12 jerking them around with the whole The Bachelor act they pulled (only to pick no one) just rubbed salt in the wound.


Things to look forward to next round of expansion

Fans using the wrong yardsticks

Just like how in 2011 many fans got caught up on TV markets (aka the driver of 1990's expansion), this next cycle many people will talk about cable footprints and conference networks and the things that drove expansion in 2011. But the world will be different than, and Amazon and Netflix want brands not conferences or footprints.

Contraction not Expansion

Netflix and Amazon made their fortunes disrupting traditional markets (books and tv), and they have made it clear that they don't give a shite about the tradition of the sport or the conferences in place. They will try to pick the conferences apart by going after teams directly next round instead. I can see powerful conferences (aka SEC and B1G) resisting and forcing all-or-nothing, but I can also see conferences without that level of leverage (so Big 12, PAC, indies) playing ball.

My prediction for the next round

The SEC and B1G will remain intact and not add teams or lose teams. The ACC's fate rests on what Notre Dame does, if they join fulltime that conference is secured if not who knows. The Big 12 and PAC will merge, losing some programs while gaining some in the process. This "Netflix Conference" will be a hodgepodge that will do what Netflix wants and will try to push the sport in a direction that is more conducive to Netflix's bigger goals. We might even see an outright split in the sport and two national title games (Netflix's and ESPN's) before this all shakes out.