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re: Retroactively predict the CFB playoff participants each year since 2000 and the results

Posted on 7/16/18 at 1:36 pm to
Posted by cbree88
South Louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
5635 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 1:36 pm to
Absolutely. I think Miami and USC were best and the other 3 were quite close to each other. Take the red and black glasses off.
Posted by Dupont3
Keithville
Member since Nov 2011
1731 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 1:47 pm to
LSU still wins it in 2007. They got healthy over the break and went on to drum OSU. Without injuries LSU probably goes undefeated.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86599 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

Take the red and black glasses off.


They are off. We had 1 loss to OU/Texas's 2.

Our loss was at a neutral site by 7 to an unranked team. OU lost twice to unranked teams once by double digits. Texas lost twice, also including to an unranked team. USC and UGA were the hottest teams in the country by January of 2003. OSU was fool's gold all season and should still thank God to this day that Miami got banged up in the title game.
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

Absolutely. I think Miami and USC were best and the other 3 were quite close to each other. Take the red and black glasses off.

Georgia would've made it. Both of Oklahoma's losses were to teams who finished unranked and Texas not only had 2 losses (1 being to a unranked team) but didn't win their conference.
Posted by cbree88
South Louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
5635 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Georgia would've made it. Both of Oklahoma's losses were to teams who finished unranked and Texas not only had 2 losses (1 being to a unranked team) but didn't win their conference.


The question was NOT about whether or not Georgia would have gotten into the playoff. They definitely would have gotten in

The question was about who the best team was that year. He said they Georgia was clearly better than anyone except for maybe Miami. I disagree with that strongly.
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 2:59 pm
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 4:52 pm to
My bad.
Georgia was similar to Ohio State that season. They won a lot of ugly games. I still think they were better than both OU and Texas though.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

Our loss was at a neutral site by 7 to an unranked team. OU lost twice to unranked teams once by double digits. Texas lost twice, also including to an unranked team. USC and UGA were the hottest teams in the country by January of 2003. OSU was fool's gold all season and should still thank God to this day that Miami got banged up in the title game


You are going way overboard with the Quality of Loss business. There’s no question UGA would have been a 4 team playoff and I doubt OU would have made it (Iowa or USC would have). But not all unranked teams are a like. OU lost twice on the road and yes they lost by 10 oh double digits, to an in state rival with a winning record.

And I’m gonna say the team with a 34 game winning streak was the hottest team homer
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

What?How do the Gators get in over UGA?Beat em head to head and won the Eas


Bro we’re you paying attention to who UGA played in the title game last year

Same scenario
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86599 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

My bad.
Georgia was similar to Ohio State that season. They won a lot of ugly games.


I get where you're going but you're incorrect. We did have some nailbiting close games (especially early on), but OSU was doing that all year against some shite teams. To compare:

UGA
-3 point win over 7 win clemson
-6 point win over 6 win SC
-2 point win over 10 win and 11th ranked bama (this team would have won the west if they weren't on probation)
-5 point win over 8 win (ranked 10th at game time) UT

however, after the UF loss (specifically halftime of the AU game) they flipped a switch.

-won on the road against top 20 AU
-beat a 7 win GT by 44
-won the SECCG by 27
-doubled up FSU in the sugar bowl


Now let's look at OSU:

-4 point win over 7 win Cincy
-5 point win over 8 win wiscy
-6 point win over 9 win PSU
-needed a late 4th down TD pass (literally dubbed as "holy buckeye or hail buckeye or something like that) to beat a 7 win purdue by 4
-needed overtime to beat a 5 win illinois. Go watch the highlights of this game, Illinois was absolutely hosed by the officials in the OT on not 1 but 2 illinois TDs. If replay existed then like now who knows how it turns out.
-5 point win over top 10 michigan
-OT win over a Miami team without their best player

Both teams played a high number of close games, but ours were early in the season while OSU did it all year. Towards the end of the year we were a juggernaut while OSU was still continuing to skirt by. We would have wiped the floor with OSU. Miami or USC would have been a battle for us. OSU/Tx/OU we would have won.

Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

We would have wiped the floor with OSU.


Man, I’ll give you credit you are a huge homer

Ohio State beat Miami, regular season ugly wins aside, if they could beat Miami, they could beat UGA and by no means would. UGA “wipe the floor” with them just because you pounded a crappy Arkansas and Florida St. That 2002 tOSU D was nasty, they had close games because their offense was horrible. In the pre spread era you could win like that
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 5:25 pm
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

Georgia not in the final four in 2007 or 2005?


2005. Maybe since they won the SEC. but they were 7 in the BCS behind tOSU who’s only losses were to #2 Texas and #3 PSU. Oregon who was 10-1, only loss to #1 USC and Notre Dame losses to unranked MSU and the infamous Bush push

2007: though that was arguably Richts best team save maybe 2002 and they were the hottest team (I sure was happy LSU got to play UT in the SECCG ) I doubt UGA makes it in 2007 over Va Tech and OU who won their conferences and were 3-4 in the BCS. VTs losses were to LSU and BC who was ranked #2 at the time. OU best previous #1 Missouri in CCG

What people are forgetting about 2016 Ohio St and 2017 Bama is they both finished with fewer losses than the conference winners they went over. 16 Ohio St had 4 games and 3 wins over top 8 teams going into the playoffs.
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 6:16 pm
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27310 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

Bro we’re you paying attention to who UGA played in the title game last year



No "bro",it wasn't

Bama doesn't go if AU doesn't shite the bed at LSU and/or loss to Clemson and played UGA to the last 2nd in the SECCG.

No way the selection committee denies UGA a shot after
the SECCG.

Alabama also never fell out of the top 4 after their AU
loss,UF did.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 5:44 pm to
quote:

Bama doesn't go if AU doesn't shite the bed at LSU and/or loss to Clemson and played UGA to the last 2nd in the SECCG.


And if LSU didn’t lose to MSU, Troy and Bama we would have gone
But if you don’t like the 2017 SEC scenario then see 2016 Ohio St over PSU. Like PSU UGA has a 4 TD loss

quote:

No way the selection committee denies UGA a shot after the SECCG.


Man you are way to much of a homer I’ll be curious if they ever put a team that loses a CCG in especially if the winner of that game is in. My guess they’d want to avoid that like the plague, short of 2 undefeated teams going in and no other good options like 09 they don’t.

For 2012 I think it would have been Oregon and K-State with Bama and ND rather than a 2nd SEC team but I could see Florida over UGA given UGA had more losses including a beat down. Clearly the last 2 years have shown head to head is not as important.
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 6:03 pm
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59487 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

Pre-BCS you used to get dropped the same amount of places for a loss...about 7.


This was always such bullshite. 1) that the pollsters did it, but 2) everybody accepted it. Wins and losses should never “penalize” or “reward” a certain level of dropping or rising. Every week should be a separate RE-RANKING of all teams with the previous week just being another data point with which to rank. You don’t say, oh, this team looks like a #15 ranked team. It’s all relative to THAT PARTICULAR YEAR. Take each weeks games, add the results to the previous weeks games, and rank your top 25. You don’t arbitrarily drop or raise somebody a particular amount of spots. It’s all relative.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27310 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

And if LSU didn’t lose to MSU, Troy and Bama we would have gone


What?Completely missed the point and not close your imaginary scenario ...I'm the homer!

quote:

Like PSU UGA has a 4 TD loss

And the avenged that loss,correct?

quote:

Clearly the last 2 years have shown head to head is not as important.


Not sure what is has to do with 2012 and each year had different circumstances apart from head to head.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 8:20 pm to
quote:

What?Completely missed the point and not close your imaginary scenario ...I'm the homer!


No i got the point, I was making a joke that you obviously didn’t get
Bama was in last year regardless of who won the SECCG. If Auburn has beat LSU or Clemson but still lost to UGA in the SECCG, Auburn would have been out. If they had beaten both, then maybe they go, especially given they beat UGA as well but if and buts are candies and nuts.

quote:

And the avenged that loss,correct?


You are confusing the years. I was comparing 2016 PSU to 2012 UGA. So no you did not avenge the 35-7 loss to USCe just like PSU did not avenge their loss to Michigan in 2016. The point is a team with fewer losses, that PSU beat head to head made the playoffs over them so yes it’s very possible 11-1 Florida would have gone to the playoffs in 2012 over 11-2 UGA despite the head to head loss and UGAs close loss in the CCG. But as I said I think 2012 it would have been 11-1 Oregon and 11-1 KState with Bama and ND.

quote:

Not sure what is has to do with 2012 and each year had different circumstances apart from head to head


It’s a real world example where the committee chose a team with fewer losses over a qualified team they lost to. Yes every year is different so no examples are 100% but I feel 99.9% sure 2012 UGA would not have made the playoffs
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 8:23 pm
Posted by RandySavage
Member since May 2012
30949 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:40 pm to
Someone must have forgotten to tell the 5 mediocre teams USC beat by a score or less how amazing they were
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59172 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Someone must have forgotten to tell the 5 mediocre teams USC beat by a score or less how amazing they were


What year are you talking about.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
204115 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:16 am to
(no message)
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12867 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 10:02 am to
quote:


What year are you talking about.



Probably 04. That’s the year they sleepwalked through a bunch of games with lessor opponents.
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