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Started By
Message
No, mass school shootings aren't getting worse
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:35 am
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:35 am
Mises.org
quote:
Mass school shootings are incredibly rare events. In research publishing later this year, Fox and doctoral student Emma Fridel found that on average, mass murders occur between 20 and 30 times per year, and about one of those incidents on average takes place at a school. Fridel and Fox used data collected by USA Today, the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Report, Congressional Research Service, Gun Violence Archive, Stanford Geospatial Center and Stanford Libraries, Mother Jones, Everytown for Gun Safety, and a NYPD report on active shooters. Their research also finds that shooting incidents involving students have been declining since the 1990s. Four times the number of children were killed in schools in the early 1990s than today, Fox said. “There is not an epidemic of school shootings,” he said, adding that more kids are killed each year from pool drownings or bicycle accidents. There are around 55 million school children in the United States, and on average over the past 25 years, about 10 students per year were killed by gunfire at school, according to Fox and Fridel’s research.
quote:
…my colleagues and I at FiveThirtyEight spent three months analyzing all 33,000 lives ended by guns each year in the United States, and I wound up frustrated in a whole new way. We looked at what interventions might have saved those people, and the case for the policies I’d lobbied for crumbled when I examined the evidence... I researched the strictly tightened gun laws in Britain and Australia and concluded that they didn’t prove much about what America’s policy should be. Neither nation experienced drops in mass shootings or other gun related-crime that could be attributed to their buybacks and bans. Mass shootings were too rare in Australia for their absence after the buyback program to be clear evidence of progress. And in both Australia and Britain, the gun restrictions had an ambiguous effect on other gun-related crimes or deaths... By the time we published our project, I didn’t believe in many of the interventions I’d heard politicians tout. I was still anti-gun, at least from the point of view of most gun owners, and I don’t want a gun in my home, as I think the risk outweighs the benefits. But I can’t endorse policies whose only selling point is that gun owners hate them.
quote:
What Libresco did conclude, was that a host of societal issues are driving much of what we hear about in terms of so-called gun violence. Mental illness, suicide, gang violence, and domestic violence are all important factors that drive gun violence. The problem, Libresco admits, is that simply prohibiting certain types of guns doesn't really address these issues.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:38 am to Revelator
quote:
Mental illness, suicide, gang violence, and domestic violence are all important factors that drive gun violence.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:44 am to Revelator
quote:...while news outlets have grown!!!
Their research also finds that shooting incidents involving students have been declining since the 1990s. Four times the number of children were killed in schools in the early 1990s than today,
Like to know the stat of how many news outlets have been created since the 1990s. Think 4xs?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:56 am to Revelator
quote:
But I can’t endorse policies whose only selling point is that gun owners hate them.
The entire Democratic platform at this point. If Republicans hate something, then it must be virtuous.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:57 am to BestBanker
This is like when the media does a story on the disease du jour of the moment (Zika, SARS, Bird Flu, etc.). They will say something like "there have been 200,000 cases of disease du jour diagnosed in the United States this year." On the surface that sounds like an epidemic that everyone needs to beware of. However the one thing the media never tells anyone in these type of stories is that the United States has a population of over 320 million people. The media wants you to look at this as if every man, woman, and child in Lincoln, Nebraska has came down with this disease. The proper way to look at stories like this is that no man, woman, or child in the United States who does not live in Lincoln, Nebraska has come down with this disease.
They also do this whenever they do a story on white supremacists. They will quote some statistic that says there are 300,000 white supremacists in the United States. Again, if you do not know the population of the United States (and the media is never, ever going to give you that number in their story) it sounds like the United States is being overrun with white supremacists. If you do the actual math it comes out to white supremacists=Pittsburgh, Pa. , non-white supremacists=the entire rest of the United States outside of Pittsburgh, Pa. 300,000 vs 319,700,000, no one in Las Vegas is going to put this fight on the betting boards.
They also do this whenever they do a story on white supremacists. They will quote some statistic that says there are 300,000 white supremacists in the United States. Again, if you do not know the population of the United States (and the media is never, ever going to give you that number in their story) it sounds like the United States is being overrun with white supremacists. If you do the actual math it comes out to white supremacists=Pittsburgh, Pa. , non-white supremacists=the entire rest of the United States outside of Pittsburgh, Pa. 300,000 vs 319,700,000, no one in Las Vegas is going to put this fight on the betting boards.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:03 am to 88Wildcat
yeah i used to do that kind of thing with white supremacists specifically. the estimates are under 1M but i'd grossly over-estimate to 1M just to (a) cover sampling issues and (b) give a nice, round number. people would be like "OMG ONE MILLION THAT'S A LOT" and i was like "that's less than 1/3 of 1% of the US population
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:09 am to 88Wildcat
quote:
They also do this whenever they do a story on white supremacists. They will quote some statistic that says there are 300,000 white supremacists in the United States.
I thought there were KKK members behind every rock?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:15 am to Revelator
Playing liberal devils advocate....
It is a good article but it looks like the data only goes through 2013. I wonder if there has been an uptick since then?
It is a good article but it looks like the data only goes through 2013. I wonder if there has been an uptick since then?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:19 am to 88Wildcat
quote:
. If you do the actual math it comes out to white supremacists=Pittsburgh, Pa. , non-white supremacists=the entire rest of the United States outside of Pittsburgh, Pa. 300,000 vs 319,700,000
That’s an odd way to put that. You’ll have sky screamers wanting to nuke Pittsburgh.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:22 am to Revelator
quote:
Fox and Fridel’s research.
Too close to Fox and Friends, Dems will ignore.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:40 am to PsychTiger
quote:
Too close to Fox and Friends, Dems will ignore.
That's funny, but Fox and Friends was also my first thought when I read the researchers names.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:42 am to Revelator
Did they adjust for the overall declining crime rate?
Instead of measuring "children killed at school" did they split out mass-casualty events?
No?
Instead of measuring "children killed at school" did they split out mass-casualty events?
No?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:57 am to 88Wildcat
quote:
They also do this whenever they do a story on white supremacists. They will quote some statistic that says there are 300,000 white supremacists in the United States. Again, if you do not know the population of the United States (and the media is never, ever going to give you that number in their story) it sounds like the United States is being overrun with white supremacists.
Same can be said about transgenders. There are about 700,000 in the US but conservative politicians think they’re in every public restroom.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 2:03 pm to uway
quote:
That’s an odd way to put that. You’ll have sky screamers wanting to nuke Pittsburgh.
That's fine, I can't stand Sidney Crosby and the Penguins.
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