re: Chances of a 22 shooting 76,82,81

quote:

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Handicap is basically reflective of your 10 best rounds of your last 20.

Beating your index happens about 1 in 4 rounds. If you beat it by 10 shots, that is long odds. Beating your index by more than 3 strikes 3 times in a row is lottery like.

I’m a 12 index. 15 course. The 83 I shot is about 120 to 1. I shot 94,91 the next rounds which are slightly worse than my handicap, but close to my average of 90.

I checked my entire group of partners. 12 guys from +4 to a 20.
Every single guy had only 4 to 5 rounds of their last 20 where they beat their index.

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I do understand the mechanism, but I still don't believe handicaps measure variance well. It is designed to measure peak performance, and I'd be interested to see the analysis the USGA has on determining that based off a rolling 20 score data set.

In my case, and what probably is probably not all that uncommon for players who live in colder climates, my index will peak every year around June or July as I roll off my scores from the previous fall when I was playing well and had been playing for 4 - 5 months and start including more scores from crap rounds in the spring when I haven't played in 7 or 8 months. My index will steadily fall until September or October, and then I stop playing again until the next April or May. My gut feeling is that the variance is just higher in this case, especially compared to when I lived and played in places where you can comfortably play 8 or 9 months per year.

Not to excuse this particular guy the OP mentioned, because he sounds like a cheating turd, but I have seen cases of guys who live in the city who have talent because they grew up playing a lot but never get to play much any longer because it takes an hour to get to a course, is expensive, and can only play five months a year here. The variance on those players is just a hell of a lot higher than it is in other cases I've seen. I played Cog Hill, an exceptionally difficult course, last weekend with a group that is all in the same boat - guys who have some ability (would probably all be in the 10 - 12 range if we carried an index), don't get to play that much for one reason or another, but can occasionally put it together for a day or two: 77, 86, and two above 90. Just a huge variance there, and I am not sure an index captures that very well.

By the way, hole 18 on Cog Hill #4 might legit be the most difficult hole I have ever played. Only comparable hole I can recall would be hole 7 at Chambers Bay.