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Message
re: Jimmy butler to Minnesota
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:04 pm to AjaxFury
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:04 pm to AjaxFury
This seems like a missed opportunity for both the Bulls and the Celtics. The Celtics could afford to give a 2-3 draft picks for a sure thing and the Bulls are obviously in rebuild mode.
Since they are rebuilding, can they get something for Rajon? I assume Wade has a no trade
Since they are rebuilding, can they get something for Rajon? I assume Wade has a no trade
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:08 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:But scoring is the only thing he does. His assist and rebounding totals are horrible for a wing player. He's a worse scoring, passing and rebounding version of Carmelo (even a young one).
Wiggins shot like 46% and had 24 ppg in a season that was not very good for him
And while he had the third highest PER on the team, he was 9th in WS/48, 12th in box plus minus, and 15th in VORP. ON HIS OWN 31 win team.
His PER is largely a function of usage though, with a 29 usage, he should have a PER of 20.4, his 16.5 is 3.9 points below the predicted value, and 319th out of 355 players who played more than 500 minutes.
In addition, out of the 355 players that played more than 500 minutes here are his rankings by the various metrics.
PER--94th
Real Plus Minus--234th (estimate since ESPN lists minutes per game)
WS/48--247th
Box Plus Minus--282nd
VORP--328
quote:VORP should track linearly with salary, and his VORP is worse than a replacement player, his value is worth league minimum (543,000), so he's getting paid (6,006,000), 11 times more than his value.
I don't think you want to give up a guy like that on a rookie contract who is in his early 20s.
In other words, his rookie contract was actually a terrible value last season.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:13 pm to molsusports
Wade opted in and has a no trade clause.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:32 pm to Madking
quote:He's been far from awesome, and he's been far from a two-way player. In fact, he's hardly even a one way player--he's been an above average scorer and way below average everywhere else.
What's with all the Wiggins hate? Dude is awaesome and rare as a two way player
His defensive FG% is 49%, which puts him at about 382nd out of 482 players, and 3.3% worse than the team average (about 375th out of 482). And the 6.7 field goals made against him, is the 473rd out of 482 players (obviously minutes play a role).
Altogether, his defensive EFG% is 56.4% compared to the league average of 51.4%. In other words, he gave up 110 more points compared to the league average based on the 1116 shots defended.
His defensive real plus minus is (-3.16) was 460th in the league, his defensive box plus minus (-2.9) was 454th in the league, and his defensive rating (115) was 462nd in the league.
By every measure, Wiggins is one of the absolute worst defensive players in the league.
This post was edited on 6/22/17 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:35 pm to molsusports
quote:
This seems like a missed opportunity for both the Bulls and the Celtics. The Celtics could afford to give a 2-3 draft picks for a sure thing and the Bulls are obviously in rebuild mode.
Doubt the Bulls wanted to trade him to an east coast rival
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:44 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And Portland, Utah, and Milwaukee were all playoff teams and younger.
Minny top 3 players(KAT, Levine, Wigg) all played most of the season at 21yrs old
Utah featured 26yrd old Hayward, Gobert(24), George Hill (30), Favors (25) and veterans like Diaw and Joe Johnson
Portland Lillard (26) CJ (25) Plumlee (26) Nurkic (22)
graph looks off but like you said was from earlier in the year
Milwaukee was young but im not about to compare them to an east team
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:51 pm to Lester Earl
quote:Rubio (26 during season) and Dieng (27 during season) were probably both better than LaVine and definitely better than Wiggins. And Wiggins is arguably not even one of their top 5 or 6 players. He's one of the worst defenders in the league, and his assist totals make Carmelo seem like Magic Johnson.
Minny top 3 players(KAT, Levine, Wigg) all played most of the season at 21yrs old
Wiggins must be the most overrated player in the league.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 10:56 pm to buckeye_vol
not saying Wiggins is great
but they had three 21 year olds play 37mpg. Not much more needs to be said other then their core players were prob the youngest in the league
He was 3rd on the team in PER. KAT was 1st. Levine was 5th. The guys in between were 26(Rubio) and Shabazz (24). They had 1 player over 30 on the roster. Again, young team
but they had three 21 year olds play 37mpg. Not much more needs to be said other then their core players were prob the youngest in the league
quote:
And Wiggins is arguably not even one of their top 5 or 6 players.
He was 3rd on the team in PER. KAT was 1st. Levine was 5th. The guys in between were 26(Rubio) and Shabazz (24). They had 1 player over 30 on the roster. Again, young team
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:00 pm to Lester Earl
quote:But LaVine only played 47 games so he was actually 5th in minutes behind Wiggins, Towns, Dieng, and Rubio (500 less than Rubio who was 4th).
not saying Wiggins is great
but they had three 21 year olds play 37mpg. Not much more needs to be said other then their core players were prob the youngest in the league
quote:Yes. Because he has such a high usage; it should have been over 20. Obviously that plays a role in the age of a team, but they would be better if they played older.
He was 3rd on the team in PER.
quote:But not abnormally young.
Again, young team
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:11 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
they were really really really frickin young
Young and dumb was who the Wolves were last year. I don't think Zach was ever going to grasp what Thibs was preaching on defense. Now he has a guy in Jimmy that knows exactly what he wants to do. Great trade for the Wolves.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:13 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
But not abnormally young.
3rd youngest team according to this
quote:
But LaVine only played 47 games so he was actually 5th in minutes behind Wiggins, Towns, Dieng, and Rubio (500 less than Rubio who was 4th).
i was going off MPG. He was one of their key cogs, and losing him certainly didnt help their record even being as young as they were.
quote:
Yes. Because he has such a high usage;
PER measures efficiency, not usage or volume.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:28 pm to Lester Earl
He's a consistent scorer. But he's just not advancing in any other place. His rebounding is the same, his ast/tov are the same, and he's actually getting worse defensively.
Of players with the same or more FGA/game than him, only one player had averaged less assists.
1. Westbrook: 24.0 FGA -> 10.4 APG
2. DeRozan: 20.9 FGA -> 3.9 APG
3. Davis: 20.3 FGA -> 2.1 APG
4. Cousins: 19.9 FGA -> 4.6 APG
5. Lillard: 19.8 FGA -> 5.9 APG
6. Irving: 19.7 FGA -> 5.8 APG
7. Thomas: 19.4 FGA -> 5.9 APG
8. Wiggins: 19.1 FGA -> 2.3 APG
That's pretty bad.
Of players with the same or more FGA/game than him, only one player had averaged less assists.
1. Westbrook: 24.0 FGA -> 10.4 APG
2. DeRozan: 20.9 FGA -> 3.9 APG
3. Davis: 20.3 FGA -> 2.1 APG
4. Cousins: 19.9 FGA -> 4.6 APG
5. Lillard: 19.8 FGA -> 5.9 APG
6. Irving: 19.7 FGA -> 5.8 APG
7. Thomas: 19.4 FGA -> 5.9 APG
8. Wiggins: 19.1 FGA -> 2.3 APG
That's pretty bad.
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:40 pm to Lester Earl
quote:In the 44% of minutes he played, they had a net rating of -3.5. When he was off the court, they had a net rating of +0.8. So they were 4.3 points better when he was off the court per 100 possessions. In the 47 games he played, they were 16-31 (34%), they were 15-20 in the 35 games he didn't play (42.9%).
i was going off MPG. He was one of their key cogs, and losing him certainly didnt help their record even being as young as they were.
If anything, losing him helped their record.
quote:Usage is a major component of PER. I examined the players who had 500 minutes or more during the season, and over 50% (.71 correlation) of the variance in PER can be accounted for by the usage rate alone.
PER measures efficiency, not usage or volume.
In other words, regressing usage on PER, and with a 29 usage rate, Wiggins had a predicted PER of 20.4, 3.9 points higher than his 16.5.
And I'm not the only one who has identified this relationship.
Fun With Stats: examining PER with usage rate and plus/minus
quote:Now obviously with every relationship, the more extreme the predictor, the more extreme a regression to the mean, and thus, diminishing returns.
but that it seems that in order to have a high PER, a player also needs to have a high usage rate.
Diminishing Returns for Scoring - Usage vs. Efficiency
And I think the above article relates well to Wiggins since his efficiency is largely a function of his scoring, and nothing else.
This post was edited on 6/22/17 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:45 pm to htran90
quote:And he's not even that efficient at that. His EFG of 48.4% is 307th in the league, and 3% lower than the league average of 51.4%. His True Shooting Percentage (53.4%) is 254th in the league, below the league average of 55.2%.
He's a consistent scorer.
And his rebounding and assist totals are abysmal. He's 377th in rebounds per 100 possessions, 259th in assists per 100 possessions, his rebounding rate is 63rd, and his assist rate is 230th.
Add to the fact that he is one of the worst defenders in the league, and I have a hard time saying he's just a below average player. He's actually a BAD player at this point in time. And although he's still young and can improve, his lack of progress, despite his talent and playing time, is troubling.
This post was edited on 6/22/17 at 11:55 pm
Posted on 6/22/17 at 11:56 pm to buckeye_vol
You sure trying hard to come off as the Wiggins expert I'd bet you haven't seen him play even 5 games in his career.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:04 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:I'm not an expert on Wiggins; I'm just able to evaluate and interpret data objectively.
You sure trying hard to come off as the Wiggins expert
quote:And you're right. And unless one is systematically and objectively observing, it's a positive since subjectivity is minimized.
I'd bet you haven't seen him play even 5 games in his career.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:05 am to buckeye_vol
i am way too stupid to understand any of that. You win, baw
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:41 am to Madking
Rubio really came on strong last year from what I saw. Shot the ball very well and he is an excellent passer. His turnovers went down it seemed too.
Rubio has stepped his game up. Wiggins is the player that needs to find his role besides scoring. He gives them nothing in terms of creation for others as his assist numbers are dreadful. He doesn't rebound a lot or attack the boards and his defense (which was a supposed strength out of college) has been lacking and leaving a lot to be desired.
If Wiggins can become the defender he is expected to be and gain some freaking weight, he and Butler could wreck shite. With Rubio facilitating; his improved 3 point shooting to boot, and Towns doing his thing, you have 4 players that will strike fear in the coming years if this core stays put.
Minnesota trading Dunn and Lavine was a good trade for Butler. Butler is solid. He and Wiggins are going to eat.
Rubio has stepped his game up. Wiggins is the player that needs to find his role besides scoring. He gives them nothing in terms of creation for others as his assist numbers are dreadful. He doesn't rebound a lot or attack the boards and his defense (which was a supposed strength out of college) has been lacking and leaving a lot to be desired.
If Wiggins can become the defender he is expected to be and gain some freaking weight, he and Butler could wreck shite. With Rubio facilitating; his improved 3 point shooting to boot, and Towns doing his thing, you have 4 players that will strike fear in the coming years if this core stays put.
Minnesota trading Dunn and Lavine was a good trade for Butler. Butler is solid. He and Wiggins are going to eat.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:02 am to buckeye_vol
C'mon man You've admitted to not even watching wiggins or the t-wolves end of discussion. If all your eveluations come from numbers you have no evaluation. Numbers are subjective without context and dependent upon many variables they tell about a 5th of the story if that. You're knocking a wing who shot over 48% lol that's insane. Plus you have guys like Dennis Rodman who've led the NBA in FG% you're gonna tell me he's an efficient offensive player or an offensive asset? The reality about Wiggins is he's an A++ athlete who is an advanced defensive player for his age he's 6-8 with an above avg wingspan super quick with great speed and his jump shot has developed 3 years faster than initially expected. He's outstanding running the wing on the break and while he isn't someone who's going to tie you in knots dribbling 10-15 time to get to the hole he has a quick first step and 2 bounce explosion. He's ahead of the curve for his age both offensively and defensively and will be a great weapon alongside Jimmy Butler. Compare Wiggins to the other wings in the past 4 years (Justice, Stanley Johnson, Ingram, Parker, Brown, McDermott) none of them are even within 2 levels of Wiggins except Parker who's had the advantage of playing for a solid team and hasn't had a big a sample size cause of the injuries.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 1:48 am
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:32 am to reo45
Don't get me wrong I don't hate Rubio I've been pulling for him since he arrived. I love his handle and passing skill and you're 100% right about him improving I just don't think he's a Tom T guy. Besides that to me I think the 4 spot is where they'll need an upgrade in the starting lineup and of course their bench isn't too good either. They do have a couple guys on the bench that can shoot the 3 but those guys arnt clocking enough minutes and overall as a team they need improvement there too.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 1:33 am
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