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The case against Derek Barnett
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:06 am
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:06 am
Derek Barnett seems to be the most mocked player to the Saints, and the guy everyone "expects".
Sometimes, like last year, the most "likely" guy is the pick. And more often than not, it isn't even close.
Barnett is logical because the Saints #1 need is DE, he's an edge rusher with spectacular college production, and he's the DE most likely to be there and highest rated when the Saints pick.
The problem lies in Barnett's athleticism. His combine and proday were about as mediocre as they get. A true, elite pass rusher is almost always an incredible athlete. I have struggled to find elite pass rushers that didn't do very well at the combine or the proday. Those guys are typically next level athletes, and Barnett simply isn't. The only guy I can think of is Suggs, and he had like 24 sacks his senior year.
For instance, while JJ Watt had a similar 40 time (but better), he blows Barnett away in almost every other drill, and JJ Watt went at a similar position in the draft. Khalil Mack blows him away even more.
Yes, we are talking about elite rushers...but if you're picking a DE in the top 12, you probably want elite or close to elite production. And it is rare to see an elite pass rusher without athlete athleticism.
The question is...is Derek Barnett that much better than what you can get at 32 or 42, to pass on other players that might have much higher upside?
(FWIW, I'm actually totally fine with taking Barnett, just stoking conversation on a very likely pick)
Sometimes, like last year, the most "likely" guy is the pick. And more often than not, it isn't even close.
Barnett is logical because the Saints #1 need is DE, he's an edge rusher with spectacular college production, and he's the DE most likely to be there and highest rated when the Saints pick.
The problem lies in Barnett's athleticism. His combine and proday were about as mediocre as they get. A true, elite pass rusher is almost always an incredible athlete. I have struggled to find elite pass rushers that didn't do very well at the combine or the proday. Those guys are typically next level athletes, and Barnett simply isn't. The only guy I can think of is Suggs, and he had like 24 sacks his senior year.
For instance, while JJ Watt had a similar 40 time (but better), he blows Barnett away in almost every other drill, and JJ Watt went at a similar position in the draft. Khalil Mack blows him away even more.
Yes, we are talking about elite rushers...but if you're picking a DE in the top 12, you probably want elite or close to elite production. And it is rare to see an elite pass rusher without athlete athleticism.
The question is...is Derek Barnett that much better than what you can get at 32 or 42, to pass on other players that might have much higher upside?
(FWIW, I'm actually totally fine with taking Barnett, just stoking conversation on a very likely pick)
12
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:09 am to Fun Bunch
Barnett had a VERY good 3 cone. He isn't the fastest and didn't have the best jump numbers, but both he and Suggs had great 3 cone times.
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:16 am to Fun Bunch
All of the scouting reports I've read on him say he has "elite hands that are ready for the NFL" that has me excited.
But just as you pointed out, he's not the flashy athlete. His elite hands are what kept him in the mix throughout his college career. It's such a tough spot to be in for the Saints. Taco has a lot of questions as well. If we do not take a PR at 11, I either hope we go with an big time offensive play maker like Howard or McCaffery, or perhaps trade back with someone like the Cardinals (13th) or Eagles (14th) simply to gain an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick, especially if we are going to trade with the Patriots for Butler. So trading back 2 or 3 spots will essentially cancel out the loss of picks through the Butler trade and we can use our newly aquired 1st round pick on BPA at a position of need.
But just as you pointed out, he's not the flashy athlete. His elite hands are what kept him in the mix throughout his college career. It's such a tough spot to be in for the Saints. Taco has a lot of questions as well. If we do not take a PR at 11, I either hope we go with an big time offensive play maker like Howard or McCaffery, or perhaps trade back with someone like the Cardinals (13th) or Eagles (14th) simply to gain an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick, especially if we are going to trade with the Patriots for Butler. So trading back 2 or 3 spots will essentially cancel out the loss of picks through the Butler trade and we can use our newly aquired 1st round pick on BPA at a position of need.
This post was edited on 4/21/17 at 11:17 am
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:19 am to Fun Bunch
big fat asterisk next to his combine #s being that he probably shouldn't have fought through an illness and gone home. but he showed up and toughed it out. on top of that had a hamstring injury during pro-day so #s weren't realistic their either. coaches and scouts know what his real 40-time is via him directly or his coaches at UT. i can promise you they put more stock in those #s than the injury/illness reflective combine and pro day #s
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:34 am to Fun Bunch
I think the combine is just like pulling the wool over your own eyes. Gametape should be your primary source.
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:47 am to Fun Bunch
This thread makes me really glad I'm not the front office guy who has to make this decision. Great points on both sides
Posted on 4/21/17 at 11:56 am to Fun Bunch
I'd almost say just double up at edge rusher at 11 and 32. It's a position we HAVE to get right.
Or, my hope is that Lattimore falls to 11 and then we take two pass rushers at 32 and 42. But that's just me.
Or, my hope is that Lattimore falls to 11 and then we take two pass rushers at 32 and 42. But that's just me.
This post was edited on 4/21/17 at 11:59 am
Posted on 4/21/17 at 12:15 pm to Fun Bunch
I'm just gonna leave these here......
Posted on 4/21/17 at 12:36 pm to Fun Bunch
You could also find far more examples of guys who put on a show at the combine and were complete busts in the league
Posted on 4/21/17 at 12:40 pm to Fun Bunch
The Terrell Suggs stuff is silly. One of a handful of outliers over a 15 year period.
By simply playing the percentages he is way way way more likely to fail then to become Suggs. Which is why I've maintained it's too risky to pick a 27th percentile DE at pick 11. Esp if we give up pick 32. The payoff isn't high enough
By simply playing the percentages he is way way way more likely to fail then to become Suggs. Which is why I've maintained it's too risky to pick a 27th percentile DE at pick 11. Esp if we give up pick 32. The payoff isn't high enough
Posted on 4/21/17 at 1:14 pm to Fun Bunch
Barnett would be an extreme reach at 11. He will be a poor mans Will Smith. Can't believe so many Saints fans want him at 11. He doesn't have any real upside. Give me a RB or TE over him any day of the week
Posted on 4/21/17 at 1:48 pm to Fun Bunch
Similar combine numbers to Joey Bosa.
Posted on 4/21/17 at 2:47 pm to Fun Bunch
I don't feel Barnett at 11. I've been on the Reuben Foster train, but he may be more of an idiot than I realized. But my rationalization remains the same... there is not a huge gap, if any gap between Barnett and the pass rushers available at 32/42. So take a baller at 11, Foster, McAffery, etc
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