A guide to the French Elections

Why are you making this list?

Because at least one person's going to make a thread on 23 April talking about how x candidate is now the President of France despite it going to a run-off.

So you think people on this board are stupid?

There are at least a few Bama sidewalk fans on here, yes.

So get to it. What's complicated about the French elections?

Well, France has a system that, on first glance, looks a bit like the American system before the 17th amendment. They have a bicameral legislature, but only the lower house (the National Assembly) gets elected by the people. They also have a President.

Then things get complicated. In order to win the Presidency or a seat in the National Assembly, you have to have 50% + 1 of the vote. If no candidate in a race hits that mark, the top two candidates go to a run-off. Further, the elections for the National Assembly and the Presidency are held on separate days.

So the French are going to the polls this year on 23 April, 7 May, 11 June, and 18 June.

frick me.

Yep.

And who goes first?

The presidential elections are the first two dates. The elections for the National Assembly follow.

Ok.

Who's running for President?

11 people, but only five have a real shot. They are:

Marine Le Pen



She's the candidate for Front National, a party founded by her father, a Vichy-apologist and Holocaust denier. Her main issues are getting out of the EU, leaving NATO, reforming France's immigration laws, the nationalisation of banks, the abandonment of nuclear power, major tax hikes on corporations, the Havana Charter, lifting sanctions on Putin, recognising Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and banning the public, personal display of religious imagery.

Emmanuel Macron



He's the candidate for En Marche!, a 'centrist' party that he formed last year after resigning from President Francois Hollande's government. His key policies are cutting the corporate tax rate to 25%, merging benefit systems, allowing companies to negotiate on the work week, local housing tax exemptions.

Francois Fillon



He's the candidate for the Republicans. He wants a return to the 39 hour work week, raising the retirement age to 65, he wants to dramatically cut spending, he wants to end the wealth tax, and he's a social conservative.

Jean-Luc Melenchon



A former Socialist who thought they weren't left-wing enough, he's the candidate for France Unbowed. He wants to leave the EU, to leave NATO, to nationalise the banks, and a massive minimum wage hike.

Benoit Hamon



He's the Socialist. He wants all of current President Hollande's policies (possibly bumped up a bit), plus the legalisation of marijuana, universal basic income, and a tax on robots.

What do the polls say?

The polls have the top two as Le Pen and Macron, but about 1/3 of the population are undecided and another 1/3 are abstaining altogether because they think France is fricked with this group.

If those two do end up making the run-off, what would happen?

Going by history, Macron would end up winning big. The FN candidates in the National Assembly normally do well in the first round and then get ganged up on in the run-off. This happened in the last elections round of special elections, where the FN really thought that they'd do something BIG, but ended up getting smashed.

But what happens if it's Le Pen and some nut like the Melenchon guy?

Do you remember the recent Austrian elections? Probably the same thing - Melenchon would probably win.

Have there been any scandals?



A better question would be 'which candidate's scandal has hurt them the most?' That answer would probably be Fillon's. His dumbass Welsh wife gave an interview where she said that she and her sons haven't done any work in years. Unfortunately for Fillon, he's been paying them to work as his advisers (this is a very normal thing in France). He had been promoting himself as the 'moral, trustworthy' candidate, so this hurt him a ton.

Does he still have a shot?

Yes, but only because of the National Assembly. Both he and Hamon (who has been an afterthought in the polls), are the only candidates with any polling behind them who have an actual, established party.

Why is that important?

In the French system, if the President and the National Assembly don't agree, you get something called 'cohabitation', and the President becomes a largely ceremonial role. You see, although the President has the power to choose a Prime Minister, the National Assembly can overthrow the Prime Minister and pick their own.

Oh.

Yep.

Le Pen's FN currently has two members of the National Assembly and Macron's party, being brand new, has zero. If they're able to win the Presidency, their party will likely get some more people in the National Assembly in June, but not enough to stop cohabitation.

So if Le Pen or Macron wins, France has a cermonial President for five years?

If it's Le Pen, almost certainly. If it's Macron, it's possible that his former party will support some of his policies.

So why are they leading in the polls?

Because Francois Hollande managed to cause massive disillusionment in France. Also, because Fillon really, really hoped that his scandal would blow over and he'd easily make the run-off, so he refused to step aside for another candidate.