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Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:18 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19846 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:18 pm





Model Times - Tropical Tidbits
GFS:
00z - 10:30 pm
06z - 4:30 am
12z - 10:30 am
18z - 4:30 pm

Euro:
00z - 12:45 am
12z - 12:45 pm
This post was edited on 10/10/16 at 10:07 pm
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99773 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:19 pm to
So...we're not going to die?
Posted by link
Member since Feb 2009
19867 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:20 pm to
looks like i'll wait another year to get my generator serviced
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19846 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:29 pm to


I typically don't give much time to pouch tracking but P39L is very intriguing. The current MJO forecast and medium range model guidance would suggest a general westward motion. The last few systems have come off of Africa farther north and have been automatic out to sea systems.

The models are in pretty good agreement that P39L will be approaching the Islands in 8 or 9 days with a ridge over the top. At this time, there are a lot of signals pointing to a late season heatwave in the East. That would suggest stronger than normal high pressure over the SE that might keep any future system trapped on a westward course.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3321 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:33 pm to
Punta Cana... Here I come!!
Posted by TypoKnig
Member since Aug 2011
8928 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 10:22 pm to
This is my last hurricane season in New Orleans
This post was edited on 9/20/16 at 10:23 pm
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
63013 posts
Posted on 9/20/16 at 10:55 pm to
So, how far off were the "preseason" estimates off from actual?
My guess is close to the number of named storms, but too high on the number of major hurricanes, since I'm not sure we got one this season.
Yet.
Posted by LucasP
Member since Apr 2012
21618 posts
Posted on 9/23/16 at 8:37 am to
Man I'm so glad there's no hurricanes now or ever again. I was so sick of those things.
Posted by The Sad Banana
The gate is narrow.
Member since Jul 2008
89498 posts
Posted on 9/23/16 at 11:54 am to
One looks like a dick, one looks like a boomerang and the other one looks like a corn dog.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11598 posts
Posted on 9/24/16 at 5:09 pm to
An interesting historical fact is that since 1851 a hurricane has not made landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Texas between October 5 and October 11. Here are the landfalls by date:

Sep. 27 - 1901
Sep. 28 - None
Sep. 29 - 1915, 1917, 1998
Sep. 30 - None
Oct. 1 - None
Oct. 2 - 1860, 1867, 1893
Oct. 3 - 1964, 2002
Oct. 4 - 1867, 1949, 1995
Oct. 5 - Oct. 11 - None
Oct. 12 - 1886
Oct. 13 - None
Oct. 14 - None
Oct. 15 - None
Oct. 16 - 1912, 1923, 1989

That's about 1 every 14 years between Oct. 2 and Oct. 16. And the last one was Lili in 2002 - 14 years ago. Based on climatology, the potential is there.

This potential system would most likely be between Oct. 7 and Oct. 9.

LINK
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 5:17 pm
Posted by moffettduck
Mobile, Alabama
Member since Feb 2016
857 posts
Posted on 9/24/16 at 5:23 pm to
Another dud of a season.. everyone it was fun with no major damage or storms to worry about.
Posted by DustyDinkleman
Here
Member since Feb 2012
18176 posts
Posted on 9/26/16 at 5:27 pm to
All the spaghetti plots are pointing to the Gulf, and we're a week and a day out...


Que the "armchair meteorologists" meltdown....

Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
36244 posts
Posted on 9/26/16 at 5:49 pm to
Going to Florida panhandle on Oct 9th. Be an issue?
Posted by skinny domino
sebr
Member since Feb 2007
14352 posts
Posted on 9/28/16 at 9:21 am to
Where's Peeej?
Posted by TidenUP
Dauphin Island
Member since Apr 2011
14455 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 5:50 pm to
When it hits 200, sell.
Posted by SG_Geaux
Beautiful St George
Member since Aug 2004
78232 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 10:47 pm to
Poor Jamaica
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98667 posts
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:54 am to
That death figure of 20,000 predicted for Katrina might happen in Kingston instead.
Posted by Carolina_Girl
South Cackalacky
Member since Apr 2012
23973 posts
Posted on 10/1/16 at 8:12 am to


Well, I certainly hope and pray the UKM2 prediction is as wrong as it appears to be. If it maintained cat 5 strength it would make what Hugo did to us look like child's play.
Posted by ZULU
Member since Sep 2009
1014 posts
Posted on 10/2/16 at 8:51 pm to
Posted by Monkeyboy
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
766 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 9:52 am to
So I'm supposed to be heading to Orange Beach this weekend. Any chance I'm going to regret not buying hurricane insurance for the condo I rented or is this thing pretty much looking like it's headed for the east coast? Thanks.
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