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Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:18 pm
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/145747W5_NL_sm.gif)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png)
Model Times - Tropical Tidbits
GFS:
00z - 10:30 pm
06z - 4:30 am
12z - 10:30 am
18z - 4:30 pm
Euro:
00z - 12:45 am
12z - 12:45 pm
This post was edited on 10/10/16 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:19 pm to rds dc
So...we're not going to die?
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:20 pm to rds dc
looks like i'll wait another year to get my generator serviced
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:29 pm to rds dc
![](https://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satanalatl2016/current_NRL.png)
I typically don't give much time to pouch tracking but P39L is very intriguing. The current MJO forecast and medium range model guidance would suggest a general westward motion. The last few systems have come off of Africa farther north and have been automatic out to sea systems.
The models are in pretty good agreement that P39L will be approaching the Islands in 8 or 9 days with a ridge over the top. At this time, there are a lot of signals pointing to a late season heatwave in the East. That would suggest stronger than normal high pressure over the SE that might keep any future system trapped on a westward course.
Posted on 9/20/16 at 2:33 pm to rds dc
Punta Cana... Here I come!!
Posted on 9/20/16 at 10:22 pm to rds dc
This is my last hurricane season in New Orleans ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconbanana1.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconbanana1.gif)
This post was edited on 9/20/16 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 9/20/16 at 10:55 pm to rds dc
So, how far off were the "preseason" estimates off from actual?
My guess is close to the number of named storms, but too high on the number of major hurricanes, since I'm not sure we got one this season.
Yet.
My guess is close to the number of named storms, but too high on the number of major hurricanes, since I'm not sure we got one this season.
Yet.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 8:37 am to rds dc
Man I'm so glad there's no hurricanes now or ever again. I was so sick of those things.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 11:54 am to rds dc
One looks like a dick, one looks like a boomerang and the other one looks like a corn dog.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 5:09 pm to rds dc
An interesting historical fact is that since 1851 a hurricane has not made landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Texas between October 5 and October 11. Here are the landfalls by date:
Sep. 27 - 1901
Sep. 28 - None
Sep. 29 - 1915, 1917, 1998
Sep. 30 - None
Oct. 1 - None
Oct. 2 - 1860, 1867, 1893
Oct. 3 - 1964, 2002
Oct. 4 - 1867, 1949, 1995
Oct. 5 - Oct. 11 - None
Oct. 12 - 1886
Oct. 13 - None
Oct. 14 - None
Oct. 15 - None
Oct. 16 - 1912, 1923, 1989
That's about 1 every 14 years between Oct. 2 and Oct. 16. And the last one was Lili in 2002 - 14 years ago. Based on climatology, the potential is there.
This potential system would most likely be between Oct. 7 and Oct. 9.
LINK
Sep. 27 - 1901
Sep. 28 - None
Sep. 29 - 1915, 1917, 1998
Sep. 30 - None
Oct. 1 - None
Oct. 2 - 1860, 1867, 1893
Oct. 3 - 1964, 2002
Oct. 4 - 1867, 1949, 1995
Oct. 5 - Oct. 11 - None
Oct. 12 - 1886
Oct. 13 - None
Oct. 14 - None
Oct. 15 - None
Oct. 16 - 1912, 1923, 1989
That's about 1 every 14 years between Oct. 2 and Oct. 16. And the last one was Lili in 2002 - 14 years ago. Based on climatology, the potential is there.
This potential system would most likely be between Oct. 7 and Oct. 9.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 9/24/16 at 5:23 pm to rds dc
Another dud of a season.. everyone it was fun with no major damage or storms to worry about.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 5:27 pm to rds dc
All the spaghetti plots are pointing to the Gulf, and we're a week and a day out...
Que the "armchair meteorologists" meltdown....
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconrolleyes.gif)
Que the "armchair meteorologists" meltdown....
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconrolleyes.gif)
Posted on 9/26/16 at 5:49 pm to rds dc
Going to Florida panhandle on Oct 9th. Be an issue?
Posted on 10/1/16 at 12:54 am to rds dc
That death figure of 20,000 predicted for Katrina might happen in Kingston instead.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 8:12 am to rds dc
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png)
Well, I certainly hope and pray the UKM2 prediction is as wrong as it appears to be. If it maintained cat 5 strength it would make what Hugo did to us look like child's play.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconScared.gif)
Posted on 10/3/16 at 9:52 am to rds dc
So I'm supposed to be heading to Orange Beach this weekend. Any chance I'm going to regret not buying hurricane insurance for the condo I rented or is this thing pretty much looking like it's headed for the east coast? Thanks.
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