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Message
Tesla.....Tech vs Financial Realities.....Discuss The Investment Thesis
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:28 pm
I've tried to discuss this with the OT and the money board and all I get is just a ton of its going bankrupt, the debts astronomical, electric cars are silly, etc. I want to discuss the realities of what tesla has, what competitors have, and whether you think its a worthwhile investment at this stage.
Obviously at $33b the market cap is up there for a company with continued losses,dilution, and now a ton of new debt coming from solar city and their losses. I obviously am intrigued by what tesla has because I believe margins on an electric car will be significantly higher than those of an internal combustion engine maker like ford or gm. I also am a big believer in solar panels, as I bought a system from solar city for just under $20k and my electricity bill went down almost 70%. The law in texas doesnt allow you to replace 100% of your electric needs with solar, up to 80% is allowed, but due to constraints of my roof, 70% or so was achievable.
The company is obviously building this gigafactory that will be the biggest building on earth when done, its still around 15% done. Bears say its nothing special, sure doesnt seem that way from watching vids and reading about it. The model 3 seems revolutionary in that 400k+ were reserved 2 years before its release, bears again say it wont come out on time and will cost well north of $35k advertised price. The company is led by obviously one of the greatest visionaries of our time in Elon Musk, he's overpromised alot, but always deliver albeit late more often than not. The master plan 1 sounded nuts, but he got through it, and now master plan 2 sounds crazy, and financially he doesnt have the money at tesla to get there today.
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock? I mean can ford,gm,mercedes,etc come in and do the same stuff and if so, why haven't they to the scale tesla is doing it? Are all these companies really going to sit around and let one company scale electric cars the next few years while they catch up. Tesla is worth $33B and Ford is worth $48B, what do you see tesla becoming, Ive read the gamut from bankrupt POS to worlds largest company that goes well beyond cars into energy becoming a modern day Exxon so to speak.
The financials look awful, the story looks amazing, the new solar city bonds issued yesterday with elon musk buying a ton at 6.5% interest have raised tons of eyebrows on the basis the yield is so high due to risk + elon and his family buying a ton of them. I've read some bull thesis on the stock having 20x in it if all goes and obviously the near future involves more dilution and raising of capital. To me money is so cheap today that I dont mind all the borrowing tesla is doing, the demand is there but my fear is access to capital is running out with these new 6.5% solar bonds.
So thank you for taking time to read this long question and Id love to hear responses from the Tech guys on what this thing is today and what you think it can be in the future.
Obviously at $33b the market cap is up there for a company with continued losses,dilution, and now a ton of new debt coming from solar city and their losses. I obviously am intrigued by what tesla has because I believe margins on an electric car will be significantly higher than those of an internal combustion engine maker like ford or gm. I also am a big believer in solar panels, as I bought a system from solar city for just under $20k and my electricity bill went down almost 70%. The law in texas doesnt allow you to replace 100% of your electric needs with solar, up to 80% is allowed, but due to constraints of my roof, 70% or so was achievable.
The company is obviously building this gigafactory that will be the biggest building on earth when done, its still around 15% done. Bears say its nothing special, sure doesnt seem that way from watching vids and reading about it. The model 3 seems revolutionary in that 400k+ were reserved 2 years before its release, bears again say it wont come out on time and will cost well north of $35k advertised price. The company is led by obviously one of the greatest visionaries of our time in Elon Musk, he's overpromised alot, but always deliver albeit late more often than not. The master plan 1 sounded nuts, but he got through it, and now master plan 2 sounds crazy, and financially he doesnt have the money at tesla to get there today.
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock? I mean can ford,gm,mercedes,etc come in and do the same stuff and if so, why haven't they to the scale tesla is doing it? Are all these companies really going to sit around and let one company scale electric cars the next few years while they catch up. Tesla is worth $33B and Ford is worth $48B, what do you see tesla becoming, Ive read the gamut from bankrupt POS to worlds largest company that goes well beyond cars into energy becoming a modern day Exxon so to speak.
The financials look awful, the story looks amazing, the new solar city bonds issued yesterday with elon musk buying a ton at 6.5% interest have raised tons of eyebrows on the basis the yield is so high due to risk + elon and his family buying a ton of them. I've read some bull thesis on the stock having 20x in it if all goes and obviously the near future involves more dilution and raising of capital. To me money is so cheap today that I dont mind all the borrowing tesla is doing, the demand is there but my fear is access to capital is running out with these new 6.5% solar bonds.
So thank you for taking time to read this long question and Id love to hear responses from the Tech guys on what this thing is today and what you think it can be in the future.
7
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:41 pm to dabigfella
Financials are a mess, hard pass.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:59 am to dabigfella
quote:
The company is obviously building this gigafactory that will be the biggest building on earth when done, its still around 15% done. Bears say its nothing special, sure doesnt seem that way from watching vids and reading about it.
In my opinion...this will be the make or break factor for Tesla. Right now, they are saying they will be producing battery cells in early 2017. If they can start cranking out high capacity batteries for significantly lower costs than the current producers over the next 5 years, I believe the demand will be there.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:43 am to dabigfella
its an extreme case of love the company, hate the stock
im a new model s owner, but honestly wouldnt put much of my future on the table for this stock
the tech and vision are awesome and potentially world changing, and Musk is a guy that makes things happen obviously
im a new model s owner, but honestly wouldnt put much of my future on the table for this stock
the tech and vision are awesome and potentially world changing, and Musk is a guy that makes things happen obviously
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:54 am to dabigfella
I always seem to be pumping sunshine when it comes to Tesla/Musk, but I think it's for good reason. This post will be more of the same.
But first, wtf is this about?
Meanwhile, Tesla is all-in. What other company has even hinted that they might start building a network of charging stations? Tesla has 700 of them. Do you think each company will build out their own proprietary stations, or will they end up paying Tesla to use theirs? The latter seems more sensible. Tesla is on the brink of having their cars drive themselves to a charging station to get charged by one of these:
Meanwhile, I haven't heard a peep from the big boys about a single station, much less a network of automated robotic ones. In a couple years, Tesla owners will be able to drive for 4 hours, stop for lunch while their car drives itself to get charged up, then returns as they're paying the check before getting right back on the road. Can you imagine another manufacturer doing that? I can't, but maybe they'll surprise me.
Also, what other manufacturer could eschew 3rd party dealers at this point? Think of the uproar. Is it even possible? That's a lot fewer hands in Tesla's pockets.
What other manufacturer would attempt something of the scale of the gigafactory? Probably none of them. What manufacturers will end up buying Tesla batteries for their electric cars in the future? Probably all of them.
How many billions are the big boys spending, in 2016, trying to eke another mpg out of gas, knowing full well it can never match the efficiency of electric? Lots and lots of billions. They have all this inertia going this direction, multiplied by the inertia of big oil, that I can't see any of the big boys doing what's necessary to compete with Tesla for the foreseeable future.
But first, wtf is this about?
quote:Why the hell not? How is this even enforced?
The law in texas doesnt allow you to replace 100% of your electric needs with solar
quote:Well, most of them have dabbled in electric cars with varying degrees of success, but most of their offerings seem like they only built them as good faith efforts toward government incentives. They seem more interested in maintaining the status quo, as if they are tied to big oil interests.
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock? I mean can ford,gm,mercedes,etc come in and do the same stuff and if so, why haven't they to the scale tesla is doing it? Are all these companies really going to sit around and let one company scale electric cars the next few years while they catch up.
Meanwhile, Tesla is all-in. What other company has even hinted that they might start building a network of charging stations? Tesla has 700 of them. Do you think each company will build out their own proprietary stations, or will they end up paying Tesla to use theirs? The latter seems more sensible. Tesla is on the brink of having their cars drive themselves to a charging station to get charged by one of these:
Meanwhile, I haven't heard a peep from the big boys about a single station, much less a network of automated robotic ones. In a couple years, Tesla owners will be able to drive for 4 hours, stop for lunch while their car drives itself to get charged up, then returns as they're paying the check before getting right back on the road. Can you imagine another manufacturer doing that? I can't, but maybe they'll surprise me.
Also, what other manufacturer could eschew 3rd party dealers at this point? Think of the uproar. Is it even possible? That's a lot fewer hands in Tesla's pockets.
What other manufacturer would attempt something of the scale of the gigafactory? Probably none of them. What manufacturers will end up buying Tesla batteries for their electric cars in the future? Probably all of them.
How many billions are the big boys spending, in 2016, trying to eke another mpg out of gas, knowing full well it can never match the efficiency of electric? Lots and lots of billions. They have all this inertia going this direction, multiplied by the inertia of big oil, that I can't see any of the big boys doing what's necessary to compete with Tesla for the foreseeable future.
quote:Whoever phrased it that way was trying really hard to give Tesla a black eye. That makes it sound like they lose $19k on each car they sell, as if selling more cars would lose them more money. That $19k figure just comes from dividing their losses by the number of cars they sold. The margins per vehicle are obviously in the positive, so they just need to sell more cars. Which, if the Model 3 reservations are any indication, that's going to happen.
I've read online tesla loses $19k/car? How is that possible?
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 10:56 am
Posted on 9/1/16 at 10:20 pm to dabigfella
Speaking about Musk or Tesla in your OP without a single mention about SpaceX kinda makes you look silly.
I can also remember you dogging the idea of autonomous and electric vehicles on the Money Talk when folks talked Tesla and Musk up. Mainly because you are invested in petrol stations it seems.
Odd to see this stance now. Your position seems to have evolved.
SpaceX is the real gem in Musks crown. It will bankroll Solar City and Tesla for decades.
I can also remember you dogging the idea of autonomous and electric vehicles on the Money Talk when folks talked Tesla and Musk up. Mainly because you are invested in petrol stations it seems.
Odd to see this stance now. Your position seems to have evolved.
SpaceX is the real gem in Musks crown. It will bankroll Solar City and Tesla for decades.
This post was edited on 9/1/16 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 2/23/17 at 1:03 pm to dabigfella
quote:
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock?
Not yet, but it's getting close.
If Tesla can ever produce a car that has all the bells and whistles consumers want, at least ~250-300hp, can go for at least 300-400 miles on a single charge, can be recharged within 30-60 minutes and do it all for under $30k without needing to spend $1k on new batteries every couple of years, they'll change the world (at least first world countries). They're not there yet though.
Posted on 2/24/17 at 8:51 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
quote:
I've tried to discuss this with the OT and the money board and all I get is just a ton of its going bankrupt, the debts astronomical, electric cars are silly, etc. I want to discuss the realities of what tesla has, what competitors have, and whether you think its a worthwhile investment at this stage.
Obviously at $33b the market cap is up there for a company with continued losses,dilution, and now a ton of new debt coming from solar city and their losses. I obviously am intrigued by what tesla has because I believe margins on an electric car will be significantly higher than those of an internal combustion engine maker like ford or gm. I also am a big believer in solar panels, as I bought a system from solar city for just under $20k and my electricity bill went down almost 70%. The law in texas doesnt allow you to replace 100% of your electric needs with solar, up to 80% is allowed, but due to constraints of my roof, 70% or so was achievable.
The company is obviously building this gigafactory that will be the biggest building on earth when done, its still around 15% done. Bears say its nothing special, sure doesnt seem that way from watching vids and reading about it. The model 3 seems revolutionary in that 400k+ were reserved 2 years before its release, bears again say it wont come out on time and will cost well north of $35k advertised price. The company is led by obviously one of the greatest visionaries of our time in Elon Musk, he's overpromised alot, but always deliver albeit late more often than not. The master plan 1 sounded nuts, but he got through it, and now master plan 2 sounds crazy, and financially he doesnt have the money at tesla to get there today.
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock? I mean can ford,gm,mercedes,etc come in and do the same stuff and if so, why haven't they to the scale tesla is doing it? Are all these companies really going to sit around and let one company scale electric cars the next few years while they catch up. Tesla is worth $33B and Ford is worth $48B, what do you see tesla becoming, Ive read the gamut from bankrupt POS to worlds largest company that goes well beyond cars into energy becoming a modern day Exxon so to speak.
The financials look awful, the story looks amazing, the new solar city bonds issued yesterday with elon musk buying a ton at 6.5% interest have raised tons of eyebrows on the basis the yield is so high due to risk + elon and his family buying a ton of them. I've read some bull thesis on the stock having 20x in it if all goes and obviously the near future involves more dilution and raising of capital. To me money is so cheap today that I dont mind all the borrowing tesla is doing, the demand is there but my fear is access to capital is running out with these new 6.5% solar bonds.
So thank you for taking time to read this long question and Id love to hear responses from the Tech guys on what this thing is today and what you think it can be in the future.
This is a huge shift in your opinion. You have stated you are a total non believer in Tesla in the past on the Money Board. You also are involved in gas station investments and when I questioned you, you tried to say that had nothing to do with your negativity re: electric cars or Tesla.
Realllllllly strange 180 by you...
ETA: Didn't realize this was an old thread. Guys this dude owns gas stations and has TRASHED Tesla and Musk and the very concept of EV's in the past there. It's obviously because they have the potential to turn gas stations into the next Blackberry Phones.
Notice he also ignores the massive cash cow that SpaceX is. They'll already be 40-60% cheaper than any other competitor in terms of launching payloads into space, and once they start totally reusing everything, they'll cut even further into their competitors, and eat up the entire market, generating STAGGERING sums of money.
SpaceX will bankroll Tesla and Solar City and not even yawn...He can't and won't discuss that aspect of Musk's businesses because it confirms that he will soon be able to run Tesla and GigFactory and Solar City at a loss like Bezos did with Amazon for years because SpaceX will float them for decades.
But anyone who researches how badly SpaceX is outclassing everyone in the space payload business would realize that this is the case. He knows...and he can't really respond to that aspect of the discussion.
Because his angle is to trash Tesla and EV's in reality.
This post was edited on 2/24/17 at 9:06 pm
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