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Message
re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:29 am to LSU1NSEC
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:29 am to LSU1NSEC
quote:
Monday 8/1/2016 - 9 am ET/8 am CT: In my opinion, Invest 97-L is already a tropical storm based on satellite data & I fully expect to see the National Hurricane Center initiate advisories and upgrade it to Tropical Storm Earl as soon as this afternoon.
*** For those of you on the island of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading across Jamaica sometime this afternoon or this evening and then reaching the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. ***
After that, Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula may be impacted by tropical storm or even hurricane conditions by Wednesday night and Thursday.
Fortunately for the Texas coast and the rest of the US Gulf Coast, a large high pressure ridge should guide this system into Mexico rather than it turning northwestward towards the United States.
Full comprehensive discussion at LINK -…/
2
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:33 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Fortunately for the Texas coast and the rest of the US Gulf Coast, a large high pressure ridge should guide this system into Mexico rather than it turning northwestward towards the United States.
:whew:
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:54 am to rds dc
Great video. According to that video, a stronger storm would give it a better chance to track northward.
I'll say this, the satellite imagery looks pretty damn good, or bad, depending on your perspective.
I'll say this, the satellite imagery looks pretty damn good, or bad, depending on your perspective.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:45 am to slackster
quote:
Great video. According to that video, a stronger storm would give it a better chance to track northward.
I'll say this, the satellite imagery looks pretty damn good, or bad, depending on your perspective.
Luckily for interest in the Gulf, it looks like the ridge over the top will be stout enough to keep even a stronger system moving west. The Euro has pretty steady strengthening starting today up until landfall and the HWRF goes bonkers but they both stay pretty much due west. Anyone vacationing in Cozumel might be worried.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:52 am to rds dc
That looks awfully organized to still be an "Invest"
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:56 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
That looks awfully organized to still be an "Invest"
I believe that is a computer model a few days down the road, but your point remains.
rds, any insight as to how the "invest" naming system comes about? Is it based on the latitude or longitude where the storm originates? I'm too lazy to look it up.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:01 am to slackster
Just a tracking system that rotates between 90 - 99 and repeats as necessary during the season. Next will be 98, probably wave coming off Africa that the models seem to be indicating will take a similar track as 97. "L" designates that the invest is in the Atlantic.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:04 am to rds dc
quote:
Just a tracking system that rotates between 90 - 99 and repeats as necessary during the season.
Gotcha. I thought it might be a system that counts down from 99 considering I've see 90s and 91s before, but I could never recall a system below 90, so I wasn't sure.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:26 am to LakeViewLSU
They could probably use a bath
Posted on 8/1/16 at 1:18 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:we haven't seen any westerly winds in sat derived products yet.
That looks awfully organized to still be an "Invest"
recon is currently en route, so we'll know by tonight if it's a TD yet
Posted on 8/1/16 at 1:46 pm to baytiger
quote:
we haven't seen any westerly winds in sat derived products yet.
recon is currently en route, so we'll know by tonight if it's a TD yet
The sat images have been very misleading, esp. with the feathering outflow. Closer looks at the visible & RGB seem to still indicate just a sharp wave axis but that might be starting to change. I wouldn't be surprised if recon found just a wave or a TS.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
Updates are coming too slow. Need to get Chicken to man up and get TD its own satellite, and C-130 so our resident meteorologist can keep us all up to speed in a manner befitting.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 3:46 pm to rds dc
Actually pretty good agreement b/w the 12z Euro and HWRF that compact rapidly intensifying system will move in near Belize:
12z Euro
12z HWRF
12z Euro
12z HWRF
Posted on 8/1/16 at 3:55 pm to baytiger
quote:
recon is currently en route, so we'll know by tonight if it's a TD yet
Recon has bailed on this mission and returning to base.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 5:28 pm to rds dc
What can go wrong while I am on playa Del Carmen with this shite coming?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 5:48 pm to CaptainJ47
How long until they start sending drones into hurricanes instead of manned planes?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 6:47 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/1/16 at 6:56 pm to NorthEndZone
I'm not sure if charts exist that are more confusing to the layperson than some weather charts.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:19 pm to slackster
That's a sand trap in the middle of a green.
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