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re: The Golden State Warriors will be WORSE next year, and I'll explain why.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:14 pm to PrimeTime Money
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:14 pm to PrimeTime Money
Yeah, it's going to be hard to improve on their regular season for sure. I think this will definitely make them better come playoff time.
1
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:24 pm to htran90
quote:
With that being said: Barnes' 10 goes straight to KD. Bogut's 4 will most likely go to Zaza. The others whether they come back or not and/or they're gone: Speights, Barbosa, Livingston, and Ezeli combine for 21 shots. Easily can cede 10 of those 21 shots to KD. while the new bench takes the other 11.
Yeah but it doesn't really work that way.
Barnes only shot the ball 10 times a game, but he was playing 31 minutes per game too. KD will replace those minutes, but the vast majority of them were with the starters, so to carve out another 5-7 shots per game is going to cut into Curry, Thompson, and Green's attempts no matter how you slice it.
Everyone thinks that the biggest advantage the Warriors will have is with "resting" guys by cutting back minutes and staggering their subs to keep 2-3 stars in at all times, but once again, if you do that, you're going to be replacing those minutes with more inefficient players, especially with the bench you'll be left with after this signing.
I still think it is a slight net positive for the Warriors, but there are a lot of things at play with this move.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:25 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
turning him into a shooter running off screens takes away the things that makes him Kevin Durant.
disagree. I think it'll give Durant more opportunities and being in a free flowing offense with great passing should make Durant more effective in getting to the rim, pulling up for mid-range shots, or getting open looks on the outside.
Durant doesn't need to fundamentally change his game. Kerr will plan him into their offense and with his skills it shouldn't be too rough of a transition.
The Warriors did get softer and weaker however, it's small ball to a new level.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:28 pm to slackster
quote:
Everyone thinks that the biggest advantage the Warriors will have is with "resting" guys by cutting back minutes and staggering their subs to keep 2-3 stars in at all times, but once again, if you do that, you're going to be replacing those minutes with more inefficient players, especially with the bench you'll be left with after this signing.
I still think it is a slight net positive for the Warriors, but there are a lot of things at play with this move.
The end game isn't to win more regular season games, it is to win in the playoffs. You might get more inefficient minutes in the regular season. Let's say they win 58 games staggering guys. When benches tighten in the playoffs, those stars are going to play heavy minutes and that is when you will see the difference. It doesn't mean they will win it all or they won't struggle to integrate, it just means they replaced a serviceable Barnes with an elite Durant.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:34 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Disagree, they will be able to have 2 of KD/Steph/Klay on the court all the time.
There are only 240 minutes to go around. Some people are arguing they'll cut minutes to keep everyone fresh and others think they'll use their 4 stars to stagger minutes and offset their shorter bench. It can really only be one or the other.
You can cut everyone to 30-33 minutes or so per game, but that still leaves 120-108 minutes going to other, lesser players. Steph, Klay, and Draymond only played 33-34 MPG this season already, so I'm not sure how much more people expect them to realistically cut.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:35 pm to slackster
quote:in the playoffs
offset their shorter bench.
quote:in the regular season
Some people are arguing they'll cut minutes to keep everyone fresh
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:36 pm to slackster
The idiocy in this thread is giving me a headache.
So many poor analysts all in one place trying to shite on GS's IMPROVED team.
So many poor analysts all in one place trying to shite on GS's IMPROVED team.
This post was edited on 7/5/16 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:36 pm to slackster
quote:
You can cut everyone to 30-33 minutes or so per game, but that still leaves 120-108 minutes going to other, lesser players. Steph, Klay, and Draymond only played 33-34 MPG this season already, so I'm not sure how much more people expect them to realistically cut.
Who said cut their minutes? I'm pretty sure it was just keep them rested. That's what I imagine they will continue to do.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:37 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:Sure it can improve
1. They had no trouble scoring last season. Their offensive rating was 112.5. The team with the 2nd best offensive rating was the Thunder at 109.9. So they were nearly 3 points better than the 2nd place team. That number really cannot be improved on much if at all.
quote:Fair point on the defense
2. Their defense has gotten worse. Bogut is gone, and he was a great rim protector. Ezeli will be gone, and he was one of the best rim protectors in the league. Barnes is gone, and he was solid on defense at the SF spot.
quote:I'm guessing he can hit a wide open 3 off the catch. I also don't see why he'd have much issue with an offense predicated on ball movement, he's a good passer and smart player
3. Kevin Durant is an isolation player
quote:The bulk of the shots will be taken from Barnes and the bench IMO.
Something's gotta give, and someone is going to be getting less shots
quote:Bingo. They'll lose more regular season games but be a better playoff team I'd imagine.
There are some positives such as being able to keep at least two all-stars on the court at the same time
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:38 pm to quail man
quote:Their "bench" unit will or could have 2 top 15 players on it at all times now.
Their bench had been a major advantage in the past. It's gone now
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:38 pm to PrimeTime Money
They replaced Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant.
Harrison "4 for 50 in the playoffs" Barnes for Kevin fricking Durant.
They might not win 73 games, but they will be better in the playoffs. They just need a center.
Harrison "4 for 50 in the playoffs" Barnes for Kevin fricking Durant.
They might not win 73 games, but they will be better in the playoffs. They just need a center.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:38 pm to slackster
quote:
but that still leaves 120-108 minutes going to other, lesser players.
Yea but those lesser players will now be on the court with KD/Klay instead of Klay and 4 bench players.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:38 pm to therick711
quote:Elite players are elite when there is enough room to take advantage of their skills fully.
it just means they replaced a serviceable Barnes with an elite Durant.
Too many stars will push others out. It happened to Bosh in Miami, and it happened to Love in Cleveland.
They will have to change their games to fit the new offense.
The Warriors will now have 4 all-star players in Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green. How they are going to fit together I don't know.
Somebody will be pushed out, and they'll have to change their game. That change may take away things that make them better than other players if they were on another team.
Bosh and Love both had to give up strengths of theirs in order to fit in the offense. Bosh was a great post player who could really score if he was given the ball. But they had him shooting outside jumpers and reduced his role in the offense.
Sure, he's still good, but there wasn't enough room to take full advantage of Chris Bosh's skills.
That's my point. It's as if it is a zero-sum game, and the players' games will take a hit. You don't just add Kevin Durant's ability on top and think it is going to translate.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:39 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:Now imagine they shifted the playmaking duties to KD and all Steph had to do was stand around and shoot wide open 3s.
Curry was hurt in the playoffs. His shot was way off.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:40 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:Kd is a shooter with length who can move the ball.
I think the Warriors are forgetting what made them so great. They had a team full of shooters with length who could all move the ball.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:42 pm to PrimeTime Money
Durant's game is nothing like Love's game and Bosh's game. That being said, he will have to integrate. Where Love and Bosh didn't fit, Durant is the prototypical pace and space player. I would argue his game is more ready to fit into what the Warriors do then putting Love with two ball demanders or Bosh with same.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:42 pm to NOLA Bronco
To the bench criers:
Lets not count our chickens before they hatch. I admit, I questioned how they will replace the rebounding and ability to bang down low but they answered that question in about two hours when they signed Zaza.
Now they have
Durant + Zaza >> Barnes + Bogut
in terms of rebounding.
Livingston isnt going anywhere, nor is Iggy. Now we hear they have multiple veterans CALLING THEM to sign for the minimum to chase rings. In all likelihood they replace Speights with David West, and some other ring chasers. People are really engaging in some wishful thinking. They are gonna be good, really good.
quote:
Alex Kennedy: Sources: A number of free agents have contacted the Warriors asking for a minimum deal today. Bob Myers won't have trouble filling roster.
Lets not count our chickens before they hatch. I admit, I questioned how they will replace the rebounding and ability to bang down low but they answered that question in about two hours when they signed Zaza.
Now they have
Durant + Zaza >> Barnes + Bogut
in terms of rebounding.
Livingston isnt going anywhere, nor is Iggy. Now we hear they have multiple veterans CALLING THEM to sign for the minimum to chase rings. In all likelihood they replace Speights with David West, and some other ring chasers. People are really engaging in some wishful thinking. They are gonna be good, really good.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:44 pm to therick711
quote:
The end game isn't to win more regular season games, it is to win in the playoffs. You might get more inefficient minutes in the regular season. Let's say they win 58 games staggering guys. When benches tighten in the playoffs, those stars are going to play heavy minutes and that is when you will see the difference. It doesn't mean they will win it all or they won't struggle to integrate, it just means they replaced a serviceable Barnes with an elite Durant.
Yeah, I get all of that and that is why I believe it is a net positive. However, I think it is marginally better, not drastically better like others may think. In this past postseason Durant shot a worse FG%, 3PT%, and eFG% than the entire Warriors' team average. Even if you isolate Barnes, Durant's eFG% was 46.8% while Barnes was 44.6%. KD can fill it up and he's one of the best in the game, but on the whole he isn't significantly more efficient than the shots he is going to be replacing. That is my concern, although the counterargument is that he should get better looks on the Warriors.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:45 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:He can take a more active role when not all 4 are on the court, which will be a good bit of the time.
Turning him into Klay Thompson takes away the advantages that Kevin Durant has.
Posted on 7/5/16 at 2:46 pm to slackster
quote:
KD can fill it up and he's one of the best in the game, but on the whole he isn't significantly more efficient than the shots he is going to be replacing. That is my concern, although the counterargument is that he should get better looks on the Warriors.
I'd like to see him in a system that they install for this personnel. I don't think anyone will argue that Billy Donovan in his first year knew how to really deploy KD. That being said, Kerr's task will be integrating everyone. Assuming they buy in, those kicks that ended up in the hands of Barnes or LB now might end up in KD's hands.
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