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Reasons for Optimism in 2015 (Not for the Faint of Heart)

Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am
#1 - Jalen Mills, Lamar Louis, Jerald Hawkins, Vadal Alexander, Travin Dural, and Dillon Gordon,
20 LSU underclassmen have declared for the NFL draft in the last 3 years. Thanks to the new CBA, we saw the effects of the mass exodus on the defensive side of the ball in 2012, where SIX underclassmen defenders were taken in the first 3 Rounds of the NFL draft... and again on the offensive side of the ball in 2013 with the departures of FIVE more underclassmen offensive players who each made significant contributions in their rookie years. As a departure from this trend, the 2015 Tigers return between 15-17 starters from last year's 2014 team, the most since the 2007 NC season. The return of the aforementioned players will be critical to the success of this year's Tiger team moreso than any other factor.

Special praise to all players who would forego the NFL Draft to return this year.

#2 SEC Cycles and the Schedule
As LSU faithful, we know firsthand the pain that comes with breaking in inexperienced QBs. To that end, of the 4 teams who finished above LSU in the 2014 division standings, 3 will be preparing new signal-callers to face the SEC gauntlet. The fourth, Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, will contend with replacing 7 starters on each side of the ball. In reflection of the 2014 meeting, it will now be LSU who travels to StarkVegas with a team of seasoned players facing a young team very early in the season.

Having drawn teams with a combined 2014 SEC record of 9-7 and with no substantial OOC teams scheduled, LSU should head into November off its bye week with an 8-0 record before playing @Bama, v.Arky, @Miss, and v.aTm.

#3 Improved QB Play
From 2010-12, LSU compiled a 34-6 regular season record, one conference title, and zero national titles. Over that same span, Alabama has compiled a 35-5 regular season record, one conference title, and two national titles. The only discernible difference between the teams during this time has been a stark contrast in QB depth and development.

Urban Meyer has provided to the CFB nation a false sense of reality, being that any QB should be able to come in immediately and be extremely productive. The nation as a whole typically fails to realize that he has been successful in this regard WITHIN THE CONTEXT of a novel offensive system that he developed, and which did not exist anywhere prior to his assumption of the HC position at OSU.

For the rest of the world, 95% of the time, it doesn't matter who it is, the QB position isn't ready and won't play like a veteran until their Junior year. There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but most of the time...that's the case. To this end, I would like to illustrate the following:

quote:

Points Per Play... Yards Per Play... Yards Per Pass... Pass Rating
Jamarcus Russell
2005 - 27th............. 46th................ 19th................. 24th
2006 - 7th............... 5th.................. 4th................... 5th

Matt Flynn
2007 - 9th............... 34th............... 37th.................. 53rd

Jarrett Lee
2008 - 33rd............. 67th............... 73rd................. 94th

Jordan Jefferson
2009 - 44th............. 87th............... 65th................. 19th
2010 - 31st............. 68th............... 63rd................. 84th

Jordan Jefferson/Jarrett Lee
2011 - 7th............... 36th.............. 42nd................. 19th

Zach Mettenberger
2012 - 48th............ 74th............... 66th................. 80th
2013 - 9th.............. 12th............... 3rd................... 7th

Anthony Jennings
2014 - 78th............ 71st............... 55th................. 82nd

2008 - Jarrett Lee - 2nd year QB
2009 - Jordan Jefferson - 2nd year QB
2012 - Zach Mettenberger - 2nd year QB
2014 - Anthony Jennings - 2nd year QB

*All Rankings Indicated Are From Data Involving ONLY two FBS schools



Whether you stand with the majority who want Harris, the ultra-talented sophomore whose drawback includes having played organized football for only 3 years, or with the minority who want Jennings, freshly reinstated to the team, who is a physically limited film junkie who exclusively corners the market with game experience, improvement from the position is all but guaranteed under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, as well as countless others through his mentorship of one George Whitfield Jr.

#4a Replacement of John Chavis
I was upset to see Chavis leave our team this past January to join a division rival. However, as discussed ad nauseum, his reputation for elite defenses is somewhat of a rouse due to the ball-control, run-heavy offense which complemented him during his time here. I have isolated yardage and point totals surrendered on a single-play basis:

quote:

LSU Defenses against Power 5 Opponents
Yards/Play (Rank) Points/Play (Rank) 3rd % (Rank)
2009..... 4.6 (17)......... .22 (8)......... 36.7% (36)
2010..... 4.9 (26)......... .29 (19)....... 33.3 (8)
2011..... 4.0 (2)........... .16 (2)......... 36.8 (36)
2012..... 4.3 (7)........... .24 (10)....... 31.5 (9)
2013..... 5.1 (34)......... .32 (34)....... 39.5 (63)
2014..... 4.9 (26)......... .28 (17)....... 37.16 (33)


Only in 2011-12 did Chavis field truly ELITE defenses... due in large part to the personnel at the time. That being said, the talent stockpiled at LSU as the 2015 season approaches is embarrassing and rivals that of the 2011-12 defenses.

In addition, his issues with the Mustang Package are well documented... there are been several occasions where his defense faltered down the stretch and surrendered the game... and even more occasions where the opponent failed to capitalize.

2009:
State - Goalline Stand to preserve the win
Georgia - 40 yard KO ret by Trindon + 33 yard TD by Scott in 1:09 after D surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - Down by one score in 4Q, D surrenders an 8 MINUTE scoring drive
Arkansas - with 1:18 remaining, 41 yard FG for OT after D surrenders go-ahead TD

2010:
N Carolina - up 30-10 to start 4Q, D preserves the win at the goal line for the W
W Virginia -
Tennessee -
Florida - 62 yard scoring drive in 3:15 after D surrenders go-ahead TD (+2pt)
Ole Miss - 51 yard scoring drive in 4:13 after D surrenders go-ahead TD

2011:
Alabama Pt. 1 -
Alabama Pt. 2 -

2012:
Auburn -
Alabama - with 1:34 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss -
Arkansas - with 1:26 remaining, down one score, Ark drives 60 yards before falling short
Clemson - with 1:39 remaining, surrenders GW FG

2013:
Georgia - with 4:14 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - with 3:19 remaining, surrenders GW FG
Arkansas -

2014:
Wisconsin -
Florida - converted DE drops TD pass, UF kicks FG for OT
Ole Miss - with 1:19 remaining, Ole Miss drives 45 yards before Bad Bo
Alabama - with 0:50 remaining, Alabama drives 55 yards for FG to OT
aTm - with 2:07 remaining, aTm drives to midfield before "offsides" no call
ND - with 5:41 remaining, ND kicks GW FG as time expires
This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 9:43 am
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am to
#4b Kevin Steele
I would like to say first that surrendering 70 points in a non-OT game is a deserved black eye for any DC. With that out of the way, I would like to dissect his time as the DC at Clemson using the same statistics used above, as well as provide a glimpse into the personnel on the field at the time.

quote:

Clemson Defenses against Power 5 Opponents
Yards/Play (Rank) Points/Play (Rank) 3rd % (Rank)
2009..... 4.5 (14)......... .30 (22)........ 40.3 (68)
2010..... 4.8 (17)......... .27 (13)........ 38.3 (44)
2011..... 5.4 (66)......... .41 (73)........ 41.2 (68)


The 2009 Clemson Defense returned 8 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL). Likewise, the 2010 Clemson Defense returned 6 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL).

In what may not be regarded as a huge variance, the 2011 Clemson Defense returned only 5 starters from the previous year, and featured 5 current NFL players (3 DL).

Additionally, there does seem to be a mild gap in talent between the rosters as indicated by 247 Composite Rankings.

quote:

2009
Returning Starters – 8
.9997 - DE – DaQuan Bowers
.8875 - NG – Jarvis Jenkins
.9704 – NG – Brandon Thompson
.9853 - BE – Ricky Sapp

.9215 - SLB – Scotty Cooper
.8146 - MLB – Brandon Mayes
.7556 - WLB – Kavell Conner

.8667 - CB – Chris Chancellor
.8875 - CB – Crezdon Butler
.8000 - FS – Sadat Chambers
.9127 - SS – DeAndre McDaniel



quote:

2010
Returning Starters – 6
*.9997 - DE – DaQuan Bowers
*.9704 - NG – Brandon Thompson
*.8875 - DT – Jarvis Jenkins
.7899 - BE – Andre Branch

.8567 – SLB – Quandon Christian
.8567 – MLB – Corico Hawkins
*.8146 - WLB – Brandon Mayes

.9629 - CB – Marcus Gilchrist
.9281 - CB – Byron Maxwell
.8579 – FS - Rashard Hall
*.9127 - SS – DeAndre McDaniel



quote:

2011
Returning Starters - 5
.9673 - DE – Mallicah Goodman
*.9704 - NT – Brandon Thompson
.8537 - DT – Rennie Moore
*.7899 - BE – Andre Branch

*.8567 - SLB – Quandon Christian
*.8567 - MLB – Corico Hawkins
WLB – Jonathan Willard

.7566 - CB – Coty Sensabaugh
.9322 - CB – Xavier Brewer
*.8579 - FS – Rashard Hall
.8875 - SS – Jonathan Meeks



A side-by-side average of these composite rankings by year is as follows:
.......2009....... 2010....... 2011
DL .9607........ .9119....... .8953
LB .8305........ .8427....... .8567*
DB .8667....... .9154....... .8585
Total .8850..... .8900...... .8702

While this does not explain the DEGREE of the decline from 2010-11, it at least suggests a relationship.

Which brings me to....

#5 Talent
quote:

Offense - Returning Starters - 9
.9645 - QB – Brandon Harris
*.9135 – QB – Anthony Jennings

*.9996 - RB – Leonard Fournette
.9027 – RB – Darrel Williams

*.8885 – WR – Travin Dural
*.9915 - WR – Malachi Dupre
*.9627 – WR – Trey Quinn
.9200 – WR – Avery Peterson
.9186 – WR – John Diarse

*.8770 – TE – Dillon Gordon
.9225 - TE – Jacory Washington
.9420 – TE – DeSean Smith

*.9728 - OT – Ethan Pocic
*.8897 – OT – Jerald Hawkins

*.9311 – OG – Vadal Alexander
.9316 – OG – Josh Boutte
.9517 - OG – Garrett Brumfield


.9054 – C – Will Clapp
.8886 - C – Andy Dodd



quote:

Defense - Returning Starters – 8
.8848 - DE – Sione Teuhema
.9324 - DE – Deondre Clark
*.9004 - DT – Christian Lacouture
*.9328 - DT – Davon Godchaux
.9187 - DE – Tashawn Bower
.9589 - DE – Arden Key

*.9021 - OLB – Lamar Louis
*.9664 - MLB – Kendell Beckwith
*.8868 - OLB – Deion Jones

*.9732 - CB – Tre White
.9948 - CB – Kevin Tolliver
*.8532 - S – Jalen Mills
*.9847 - S – Jamal Adams



The Talent acquired in the last several years, specifically the first Back-to-Back Top 5 Recruiting Finishes in Miles' tenure is matched only by a chosen few. What's more, the 2016 Class may be the best yet.

quote:


.9760 - QB - Feleipe Franks (6-5/220)

.9533 - WR - Dee Anderson (6-4/177)
.9529 - WR - Stephen Sullivan (6-6/222)
.9236 - WR - Mykel Jones (6-0/180)
.9205 - TE - Jamal Pettigrew (6-6/218)

.9984 - OT - Gregory Little (6-5.5/305)
.9831 - OT - Willie Allen (6-7.5/300)
.9436 - OG - Donavaughn Campbell (6-5/340)
.8996 - OG - Darius Whitfield (6-3/265)

.9951 - DE - Shavar Manuel (6-4/290)
.9896 - DT - Rashard Lawrence (6-4/300)
.9893 - DT - Edwin Alexander (6-2/310)
.9022 - DT - Glen Logan (6-4/270)
.9000 - DT - Stephon Taylor (6-5/260)

.9756 - OLB - Keion Joyner (6-3/200)
.9664 - OLB - Michael Divinity (6-2/218)
.9547 - OLB - Eric Fowler (6-1/232)
.9469 - OLB - Jeffrey McCulloch (6-2/225)
.9308 - OLB - Devin White (6-0.5/235)
.8591 - OLB - Clifford Chattman (6-4/175)

.9909 - CB _ Savion Smith (6-1/ 1175)
.9795 - CB - Trayvon Mullen (6-2/175)
.9789 - CB - Kristian Fulton (6-0/165)
.9119 - CB - Andraez Williams (6-1/160)
.9816 - S - Eric Monroe (6-0/180)
.9767 - S - Deontay Anderson (6-1/192)
.8975 - S - Cameron Lewis (6-1/192)



*Apologies to the recruitniks, I haven't followed the developments of these players since the OP.

This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 9:43 am
Posted by victoire sécurisé
Member since Nov 2012
5151 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 7:20 am to
Good read. Thanks.
Posted by Football_Freak
Member since May 2012
2410 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:28 am to
quote:

under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco,


This is so over-rated. He may have turned them from very good to great, but that is in no way the same as turning them from poor to very good. They all had some level of mental development prior to "being developed" by Cam.
Posted by TigerPanzer
Orlando
Member since Sep 2006
9476 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:27 am to
quote:

improvement from the position is all but guaranteed under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco

The difference between those 3 and Jennings is that they certainly had greater athletic skill at the QB position than Jennings has--in other words, their ceilings were much higher than the one for Jennings. So, the kind of improvement you apparently see for Jennings is HARDLY GUARANTEED--in fact, it's far more likely that Jennings will NOT IMPROVE to the level of a Brees or Flacco.

Naturally I'm cheering for Jennings. I'd like for him to succeed beyond anything I could imagine. He's a good young dude, plus he's ours. It's just very hard for me to believe he's going to develop into one of the top 3 or 4 QBs in our conference. Very, very difficult to see this.
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
80810 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:59 am to
Have an upvote sir - great read
Posted by tigerfan in bamaland
Back Home now
Member since Sep 2006
61212 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 10:07 am to
cautious optimism.
Posted by 0jersey
Paradise
Member since Sep 2006
1859 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 10:14 am to
I gave you an up vote mostly due to the hard work you put into this thread, and for some optimism.

However, the number one reason for optimism is the return of the O linemen in combination with Fournette. LF finally showed the flashes of his potential in the last two games proving he could be a J Hill dominating style rb for us.

I did enjoy seeing how much better our talent grades out to the talent Clemson had, but we also play more teams with higher overall talent than Clemson did. The Jury is definitely still out on Steele.

We hope to be improved on D line, but we haven't had a dominant D line in a few years. O should help, but perhaps the talent we have was over valued during recruiting by the prior coaches. I remain cautiously optimistic there.

To make a run we need to not only have QB improvement, but dramatic QB improvement. We are a long way from being an undefeated or one loss team-which is what it takes to win the west.

We better hope that Miles and company come out of the gate with the right players playing the right scheme. Too many times I've watched him wait until we lose games, or even worse until the season is over to make wholesale adjustments.

Although we have great talent on the roster, recent trends have shown the program going down rather than maintaining or going up. I am hopeful that we can have a great few years, but I am no longer buying into the hope until I see it on the field.

I am placing my faith in Cam and Harris. I think they can do it. If they can then everything else will fall into place.
This post was edited on 2/16/15 at 10:19 am
Posted by LACountyTiger
Los Angeles County
Member since Nov 2013
1338 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 10:22 am to
Jesus Christ. How long have you been unemployed?

No one with a job has time to make a post like that.

Anway, our QB play was so bad last year, anything short of the single greatest offseason improvement in history, we can still expect at least 2 losses solely due to qb play.

Oh and as someone said, Les is still the coach.
Posted by Minnesota Tigah
Somehow, Wisconsin
Member since Jul 2014
883 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, will contend with replacing 7 starters on each side of the ball. In reflection of the 2014 meeting, it will now be LSU who travels to StarkVegas with a team of seasoned players facing a young team very early in the season.


Won't miss Chief's "ghost linebacker" scheme which gave Prescott 20 yards of open field if he got past the line.
Posted by lsusportsman2
Member since Oct 2007
27232 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 11:11 am to
quote:

LSU should head into November off its bye week with an 8-0 record before playing @Bama, v.Arky, @Miss, and v.aTm.


Saying they SHOULD be 8-0 s a bit of a stretch. It is college football where you can lose to any team, so 7-1 or 6-2 might be more realistic. Could they? Absolutely. I'm just saying it's not a guarantee.
Posted by Tiger_n_ATL
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2005
32569 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Whether you stand with the majority who want Harris, the ultra-talented sophomore whose drawback includes having played organized football for only 3 years, or with the minority who want Jennings, the physically limited film junkie who exclusively corners the market with game experience, improvement from the position is all but guaranteed under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, as well as countless others through his mentorship of one George Whitfield Jr.

Chris Warner, is that you? You sound like a member of the rainbows and unicorns brigade with that kind of lingo.
Posted by 1984Tiger
North Carolina
Member since Apr 2006
7375 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

From 2010-12, LSU compiled a 34-6 regular season record, one conference title, and zero national titles. Over that same span, Alabama has compiled a 35-5 regular season record, one conference title, and two national titles.

This just plain hurts and is a big part of the dissention in the fanbase (that and what has transpired in 2013-2014).
Posted by Captain Crown
Member since Jun 2011
51966 posts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:49 pm to
quote:

#3 Improved QB Play


This. If it's Jennings job then it's time for him to show that he has matured into the position.
Posted by Nix to Twillie
Houston, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18177 posts
Posted on 2/17/15 at 7:51 am to
quote:

Whether you stand with the majority who want Harris, the ultra-talented sophomore whose drawback includes having played organized football for only 3 years, or with the minority who want Jennings, the physically limited film junkie who exclusively corners the market with game experience, improvement from the position is all but guaranteed


I know you're a big Jennings guy, and you're right in that most QB's don't develop until year 3. The problem is, Jennings is the only LSU QB I've seen in awhile that, to this point in their career, has had ZERO signature moments, save for one drive against Arkansas. All the other QB's you mention-Lee, Jefferson, and Mett, all had at least one full game before their junior year where they really shined and looked promising. Lee had Auburn '08, Jefferson the Peach Bowl, Mett the '12 Bama game. Jennings hasn't come close to that kind of performance. And the physical limitations you mention are really showing. The arm strength just isn't there. Three years is enough time to learn the game of football and I think, and hope, Harris is the guy. Good post, though.

ETA: I know Mett was a junior in '12, so we'll just call it their "third" year.
This post was edited on 2/17/15 at 9:43 am
Posted by Irish LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2014
2456 posts
Posted on 2/17/15 at 7:53 pm to
GEAUX Tigers!!!
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 12:08 am to
quote:

Reasons for Optimism in 2015


You could have saved some space and listed the only REAL reason for optimism in 2015. We're one year closer to getting a new coach.
Posted by tgerb8
Huntsvegas
Member since Aug 2007
6131 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 12:35 am to
I see 5 main reasons to be excited for 2015.
1. Returning Players. We weren't decimated by early departures, and return the vast majority of starters.(I think it's like 15 of 22).
2. The DL. Coach O (+ Valentine and perhaps Arden Key) will vastly improve our pass rush and sack count
3. QB issue. Harris accounted for 2 less touchdowns than Jennings in about 90 percent less time. If Harris overcomes whatever the coaches think is holding him back (or the coaches wake the f up and realize he's our best chance at winning) then the QB situation is not going to be an issue.
4. Skill positions. Our worst WR was a true freshman who broke every all-time receiving record in the country. Our two deep at RB will make Ingram/Lacey look like scrubs. Donte Jackson could be a huge lift at punt returns and the ever popular "jet sweep".
5. The SEC. Of the 4 teams that beat us last year (that we will play again) - 3 are replacing Qbs. 1 is replacing almost everyone else.
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5023 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

Dillon Gordon




I'm glad you mentioned Big Dillon!

He is so often overlooked.
Posted by YouAre8Up
in a house
Member since Mar 2011
12792 posts
Posted on 2/27/15 at 11:33 am to
quote:

#3 Improved QB Play


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