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Landrieu outperformed the rcp poling averages by 8 points
Posted on 12/7/14 at 12:40 am
Posted on 12/7/14 at 12:40 am
RCP showed her down 20.2, and she lost by 12.
Even in a red tide year that saw other southern dems go down by twenty or more, this lady managed to over-perform expectations.
Why has she been able to "defy odds" so damn much in elections? I'm glad she's gone, but I wanted a wendy davis type landslide.
Cassidy annoying robocalls probably worked against him.
Even in a red tide year that saw other southern dems go down by twenty or more, this lady managed to over-perform expectations.
Why has she been able to "defy odds" so damn much in elections? I'm glad she's gone, but I wanted a wendy davis type landslide.
Cassidy annoying robocalls probably worked against him.
13
Posted on 12/7/14 at 12:49 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
My conservative relatives hated, hated Cassidy's negative ads, especially the spelling bee one. So much that they would change the channel or get up and leave the room. They probably still voted for Cassidy, but his advertising really turned them off. So it may have motivated a few of his voters to stay home.
Ideology aside, Cassidy is kind of a doofus and apparently has some ethical baggage related to his double billing LSUMC. He had the wind at his back this time, but I expect somebody to make a hard run at him when he comes up for reelection. Either a Democrat or somebody from his own party.
Ideology aside, Cassidy is kind of a doofus and apparently has some ethical baggage related to his double billing LSUMC. He had the wind at his back this time, but I expect somebody to make a hard run at him when he comes up for reelection. Either a Democrat or somebody from his own party.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 12:54 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
I decided not to vote rather than vote for Cassidy after getting daily robocalls for a while from his supporters, up to 2 or 3 calls a day this past week. I will never vote for a candidate that robocalls me ever again.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 4:37 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I know of two who didn't vote because "he's got this." Anyone else?
RCP showed her down 20.2, and she lost by 12 because RCP showed him up by 20.2
Posted on 12/7/14 at 5:27 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why has she been able to "defy odds" so damn much in elections?
Hunting season.
quote:
I'm glad she's gone, but I wanted a wendy davis type landslide.
Other than the D and the parts I don't see much in common between the two.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 6:30 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Considering she received >40% in the primary, anyone seriously predicting she'd lose by >20% needed their head examined.
RCP showed her down 20.2, and she lost by 12.
Even in a red tide year that saw other southern dems go down by twenty or more, this lady managed to over-perform expectations.
Why has she been able to "defy odds" so damn much in elections? I'm glad she's gone, but I wanted a wendy davis type landslide.
Make no mistake though. Landrieu was crushed.
Don't take my word for it.
Here is Politico's account:
quote:
DEMS' FINAL INSULT: LANDRIEU CRUSHED
Cassidy trounces incumbent with Republicans set to control 54 Senate seats in the next Congress.
By James Hohmann
12/6/14 9:49 PM EST
In the final insult of a devastating 2014 election for Democrats, Sen. Mary Landrieu, the party’s last remaining statewide officeholder from the Deep South, was trounced Saturday in the head-to-head Louisiana Senate runoff election.
Republican Bill Cassidy’s resounding victory is the ninth Senate seat picked up by the GOP in this year’s elections, three more than the party needed to take control of the chamber. With nearly all the ballots counted, Cassidy led Landrieu by 14 points, 57 percent to 43 percent.
LINK
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:22 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
She gone,
and that is all that matters right now.
Christmas has come early!
and that is all that matters right now.
Christmas has come early!
This post was edited on 12/7/14 at 7:24 am
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:43 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:44 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
I have a very hard time believing she legally got 85% of the vote in Orleans Parish.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:16 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
An election like this is very difficult to predict with precision. The big problem is turnout. In a general election we have a lot of previous experience that can be used to predict who the likely voters are and how the likely voters are likely to vote. In a runoff election like this, it is more difficult to predict who is going to vote. I suspect that the polls showing Cassidy up 24 were based on likely-voter models that were flawed. They were based on a general election instead of a unique situation like a runoff, and hence they overpredicted turnout among Cassidy voters.
One thing that strikes me about this result is that ML did not improve appreciably on her vote percentage in the first election. In a multi-candidate field she got 42% of the vote, and in the runoff she got 43% of the vote. In order to win she needed to get a higher turnout rate from her supporters than from the supporters of the other candidates, and this did not happen. I don't remember seeing a poll throughout the campaign in which she broke 45% of the vote. Barring a major mistake by Cassidy, she has been a goner for some time.
One thing that strikes me about this result is that ML did not improve appreciably on her vote percentage in the first election. In a multi-candidate field she got 42% of the vote, and in the runoff she got 43% of the vote. In order to win she needed to get a higher turnout rate from her supporters than from the supporters of the other candidates, and this did not happen. I don't remember seeing a poll throughout the campaign in which she broke 45% of the vote. Barring a major mistake by Cassidy, she has been a goner for some time.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:42 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
especially the spelling bee one
This was with out a doubt my favorite ad!! Finally, something creative from the Republican stiffs. " I support this message".
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:43 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Irrelevant. Cassidy is all of the things even his own Party/Ideology critics point out...but what he ain't...is an Obama Ideological team-player. And that is all that matters.
Obama is as slick as they come behind that teleprompter...and where has that got us. Cassidy will push the right button for Louisiana...and not just for the NO Dem base that has kept Mary at the trough. Good enough.
Obama is as slick as they come behind that teleprompter...and where has that got us. Cassidy will push the right button for Louisiana...and not just for the NO Dem base that has kept Mary at the trough. Good enough.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:13 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Landrieu didn't outperform diddly.
Any 18 year incumbent getting their arse stomped by 12 points is a disaster, no matter if you try to spin it as less than predicted. She probably got her arse kicked worse than other incumbent democrats this cycle and far worse than any other Senate incumbent. What other incumbent lost by 12 points?
To lose by 20 points would require she would get about ZERO white votes instead or the whopping 14 percent she seems to have gathered.
Anyone that refuses to vote for their candidate because a candidate they prefer tries to win the election by turning out their voters is a moron.
The stupidity in this forum is endless.
Any 18 year incumbent getting their arse stomped by 12 points is a disaster, no matter if you try to spin it as less than predicted. She probably got her arse kicked worse than other incumbent democrats this cycle and far worse than any other Senate incumbent. What other incumbent lost by 12 points?
To lose by 20 points would require she would get about ZERO white votes instead or the whopping 14 percent she seems to have gathered.
Anyone that refuses to vote for their candidate because a candidate they prefer tries to win the election by turning out their voters is a moron.
The stupidity in this forum is endless.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:24 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
She still lost by 12. That is big for a three term incumbent.
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