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Message
re: Statistics: Why LSU will beat Wisconsin: A response to Wisc Trolls
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:46 am to Johnkester59
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:46 am to Johnkester59
quote:
Wisconsin is a vastly superior team to Iowa. What we take away from that game is that all these recruiting rankings that people are throwing out don't mean much. A much less talented team played you close, I see no reason why a better team (UW) couldn't as well, especially when you have to replace multiple players that rank as some of the best to ever play at LSU.
What you are describing is football. Alabama constantly has the #1 ranked recruiting class yet they lose games. Teams lose to "inferior" talent all the time.
quote:
LSU is the clear favorite, but it is by a much smaller margin than many here suspect. If UW plays well we have every chance of pulling out the W.
I completely agree.
the reason why most assume it's a win is because there is only two situations in which Wisky would win.
We'll say there are 5 levels of performance
Terrible
Bad
Average
Good
Great
IF Wisky beats LSU by 3 levels it could win. So if LSU plays Terrible and Wisky plays good.. or if LSU plays Bad and Wisky plays Great.
To put it another way.
WIS LSU
Great Great = LSU win
Great Good = LSU win
Great Average = LSU win
Good Great = LSU win
Good Good = LSU win
Good Average = LSU win
Good Bad = LSU win
Anything below good for wisky = loss.
So yes. Just like any game. The favorite could lose. But they are the favorite for a reason.
My prediction. LSU, GOOD. Wisky, GOOD. 7+ victory for LSU.
And hopefully Wisky goes undefeated from there.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:06 am to tgerb8
quote:
What you are describing is football. Alabama constantly has the #1 ranked recruiting class yet they lose games. Teams lose to "inferior" talent all the time
Exactly. I just thought it might be a nice reminder for the 48-17 crowd.
quote:
So yes. Just like any game. The favorite could lose. But they are the favorite for a reason.
My prediction. LSU, GOOD. Wisky, GOOD. 7+ victory for LSU.
And hopefully Wisky goes undefeated from there.
I can't argue with that take though I think the 3 level difference is overstating it a bit. I would be pretty shocked if it was more than a one score game either way in the 4th quarter and as you said, LSU is the favorite for a reason.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:08 am to tgerb8
lsu v iowa wasnt a close game. we dominated early and went into cruise control. wisconsin isnt a vastly superior team either, theyre both also rans. on a different note, ped mall beats state street every day of the week.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:21 am to Johnkester59
quote:
I would be pretty shocked if it was more than a one score game either way in the 4th quarter
I get what you're saying, but this mentality is what fuels the "48-17 crowd"..
Would you REALLY be shocked if it was 13 point LSU lead in the 4th?
I mean, REALLY?
Or would you just turn around to your friends and be like "well, we were supposed to lose that one anyway."
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:24 am to tgerb8
I'd be pretty shocked. That would be our worst loss in 5 years. It is far from impossible but, again, I'd be pretty shocked. We are at a point were we expect to win every game we play. If we lose by any amount I will be disappointed and have to fall back on the 'what'cha going to do its LSU' justification. But looking at the two teams I really don't see the huge talent gap the recruiting experts claim and a blowout seems unlikely either way from where I'm sitting.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 1:29 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:50 am to Johnkester59
Fair enough.
We'll leave out the fact that you have played (maybe) 3 teams in those 5 years with our talent, and have lost to all 3 by 7, mainly because the past is irrelevant.
We'll just say this would be, by far, Wisconsin's signature win in the past 5 years.
And you would be shocked by a 7+ point LSU victory? because you loss by less than that to the other 3 teams?
Come on.
We'll leave out the fact that you have played (maybe) 3 teams in those 5 years with our talent, and have lost to all 3 by 7, mainly because the past is irrelevant.
We'll just say this would be, by far, Wisconsin's signature win in the past 5 years.
And you would be shocked by a 7+ point LSU victory? because you loss by less than that to the other 3 teams?
Come on.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 2:10 am to tgerb8
quote:
And you would be shocked by a 7+ point LSU victory? because you loss by less than that to the other 3 teams?
Come on.
No I would be shocked because I know my team. We have a Heisman Trophy favorite at our most important position and NFL talent at every other position except QB (which is kind of a big flaw I will admit). This is not an unfamiliar position for UW to be in, playing against a team with far more 'talent'. The history does play a role in that. Every good team we have played recently has had a similar take on how they are going to have too much speed and athleticism for us to handle. Everyone of those teams has come out the backend and said, 'wow we underestimated the skill level of those guys, that was a dog fight we could have easily lost (or did lose).' Added on to that is the hope that Coach Anderson has brought a better mentality (and skill level) to the late game than Bert did and we won't have the inexcusable breakdowns that have cost us those games in the past. UW just doesn't get blown out, partly because of the system we run and also partly because of the mental toughness of our players.
If any team is going to do it, it will probably be LSU but I just don't see it happening. It is not as if LSU was some unbeatable juggernaut last year and you lost significant stars from that team at some very important positions. I realize you are LSU and there are more 5* guys just waiting their turn, but its the first game of the season under some very bright lights and freshmen tend to make some mistakes in those kinds of situations. I think it is a miscalculation to expect them to be in top from from the get go in their very first CFB game. I think (hope) that UW will be able to capitalize on those mistakes when they happen, and thus the game will be close.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 2:43 am to Johnkester59
Just to add some thoughts to the last post; The turnover on D is not as concerning as it would normally be. We are still in the midst of a transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new coordinator Dave Aranda. Last year with the completely wrong personal to run what he wanted UW still finished with a top ten defense nationally. This year he has many more pieces that fit his scheme so the turnover may work out better than it should in theory and expectations are pretty high for the new look. In addition the D is built around pre-snap motion and heavy blitzing from all over the field. That may cause some problems for whichever young QB LSU starts and provide UW with some of the breaks we need.
On the other side of the ball, the one scheme that gave LSU trouble last year were power run attacks that came right at them and neutralized some of the speed advantage. UW is the poster child for that kind of O. We are not going to be running sideline to sideline all that often against your D, saving on the jet sweep which may be scratched early if LSU is prepared for it (which I would guess they will).
On the other side of the ball, the one scheme that gave LSU trouble last year were power run attacks that came right at them and neutralized some of the speed advantage. UW is the poster child for that kind of O. We are not going to be running sideline to sideline all that often against your D, saving on the jet sweep which may be scratched early if LSU is prepared for it (which I would guess they will).
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:02 am to Johnkester59
I agree with Johnkester about LSU not winning 48-17.
Simply stated, Wisconsin is very capable of long, grinding drives down the field. Therefore, their time of possession will be a limit to LSU running up the score.
To be a homer......I do see Wisconsin struggling with their own front 7 on defense. 7 new faces going against LSU will be a serious challenge for first game of the season.
#1 threat to LSU????? Turnovers.
#1 threat to Wisconsin??? Playing LSU on a turf field.
Simply stated, Wisconsin is very capable of long, grinding drives down the field. Therefore, their time of possession will be a limit to LSU running up the score.
To be a homer......I do see Wisconsin struggling with their own front 7 on defense. 7 new faces going against LSU will be a serious challenge for first game of the season.
#1 threat to LSU????? Turnovers.
#1 threat to Wisconsin??? Playing LSU on a turf field.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:24 am to Johnkester59
How many 1 score games did Wisconsin win last year?
Zero.
Losing close games is something your current coaches are just as capable of doing it seems.
Zero.
Losing close games is something your current coaches are just as capable of doing it seems.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:08 pm to Johnkester59
Gordon is a Heisman Candidate......
But how did he get his yards last year???
Against the cupcakes.
The teams I would look to for having a decent to good defense on Wisconsin's schedule last year are:
OHIO STATE, IOWA, PENN ST & MINNESOTA.
Here are the rather pedestrian results by Gordon in those games:
OHIO STATE 79 yards 0 TD's
PENN STATE 91 yards 0 TD's
IOWA 68 yards 0 TD's
MINNESOTA 75 yards 0 TD's
But, he shredded Umass, Tenn Tech, Arizona St, Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana.
LSU would have a Heisman candidate every year too!! But we just play many more top-ranked teams and much, much better defenses.
Gordon is in a perfect program and conference to really grind out some great games this coming season. But in games against decent to good defenses, he was sub-par to decent.
I will say this......if he shreds LSU and delivers victory to the Badgers, he will be the shoe-in for Heisman.
But, I think our D will surprise you. Ask Iowa.
In fact, your Heisman candidate got 68 yards against Iowa. Our back got 217 yards against the same team in the bowl game.
Do these statistics not make you nervous? Less confident? They should
But how did he get his yards last year???
Against the cupcakes.
The teams I would look to for having a decent to good defense on Wisconsin's schedule last year are:
OHIO STATE, IOWA, PENN ST & MINNESOTA.
Here are the rather pedestrian results by Gordon in those games:
OHIO STATE 79 yards 0 TD's
PENN STATE 91 yards 0 TD's
IOWA 68 yards 0 TD's
MINNESOTA 75 yards 0 TD's
But, he shredded Umass, Tenn Tech, Arizona St, Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana.
LSU would have a Heisman candidate every year too!! But we just play many more top-ranked teams and much, much better defenses.
Gordon is in a perfect program and conference to really grind out some great games this coming season. But in games against decent to good defenses, he was sub-par to decent.
I will say this......if he shreds LSU and delivers victory to the Badgers, he will be the shoe-in for Heisman.
But, I think our D will surprise you. Ask Iowa.
In fact, your Heisman candidate got 68 yards against Iowa. Our back got 217 yards against the same team in the bowl game.
Do these statistics not make you nervous? Less confident? They should
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:25 pm to NotRight37
quote:
If you look at their schedule(very bad I know)they have to believe with a win they can run the table till playoffs. If LSU wins, I'm not sure we can say that(much tougher table to run)
Totally agree. The Tiger could very well win this game and still drop 3 or 4 in conference if they don't bring their A game every night. On the other hand I believe LSU represents the toughest game on Wisconsin's schedule.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:48 pm to Johnkester59
Rivals Team Rankings
You can look for yourself and see why the professional recruiting experts see the talent gap between us over last several years.
2014-LSU #2 UW #33
2013-LSU #6 UW #57
2012-LSU #18 UW #57
2011-LSU #6 UW #40
2010-LSU #6 UW #88
You can look for yourself and see why the professional recruiting experts see the talent gap between us over last several years.
2014-LSU #2 UW #33
2013-LSU #6 UW #57
2012-LSU #18 UW #57
2011-LSU #6 UW #40
2010-LSU #6 UW #88
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:53 pm to WAR TIGER
I like your style, but comparing this years teams to those of the past is completely irrelevant. Hope you're right though.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:16 pm to LSUShock
One other X factor.
Wisky's coach has a history of doing a whole lot with just a little.
That's why, in the end, you just put on the pads and okay some fricking football!!!!!
Wisky's coach has a history of doing a whole lot with just a little.
That's why, in the end, you just put on the pads and okay some fricking football!!!!!
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:32 pm to WAR TIGER
Love the effort, but most to all of your data is 4, 7, 10 years ago. I don't know how relevant that is. It much more relevant to look at the players that will actually play in this game and evaluate these teams as the matchup with each other. But I love the effort though!!!!
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 11:33 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:32 pm to WAR TIGER
Curious that you ignore the results playing against a team from the SEC.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:36 pm to Jenar Boy
quote:wtf happened to our recruiting in 2012??? Pfft, it's still 15 spots better than Wiskys best class!!
2014-LSU #2 UW #33 2013-LSU #6 UW #57 2012-LSU #18 UW #57 2011-LSU #6 UW #40 2010-LSU #6 UW #88
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:17 pm to TigerBlood17
My analysis is inclusive up to last year.
I'm not sure what you mean.
I'm not sure what you mean.
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