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re: Best Guess When it's time to Pull out the Market?
Posted on 7/2/14 at 9:43 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 7/2/14 at 9:43 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Brief overview. If you have a charting program you can compare the intraday highs to the smart money flow index.
thanks for the link. I understand the concept, but don't see the divergence in that graph mentioned by you earlier. I'm just eyeballing the 2 graphs, but the seem pretty similar.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 9:44 am to Enadious
quote:
There's no doubt there will be a correction in the stock market.
I've been hearing this for ~9 months.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:05 am to Cold Cous Cous
Brief overview. If you have a charting program you can compare the intraday highs to the smart money flow index.
thanks for the link. I understand the concept, but don't see the divergence in that graph mentioned by you earlier. I'm just eyeballing the 2 graphs, but the seem pretty similar.
What time period are you looking at?
thanks for the link. I understand the concept, but don't see the divergence in that graph mentioned by you earlier. I'm just eyeballing the 2 graphs, but the seem pretty similar.
What time period are you looking at?
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:25 am to Iowa Golfer
As far as timing, Mebane Faber did an interesting study that used the 10-month MVA to signal when to enter and exit. Over the longterm it outperformed buy and hold.
The challenge is it really requires a long-term conviction because you're going to underperform in bull markets but you'll avoid the severe crashes. It's interesting to say the least.
It's a free download here: LINK /
The challenge is it really requires a long-term conviction because you're going to underperform in bull markets but you'll avoid the severe crashes. It's interesting to say the least.
It's a free download here: LINK /
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:28 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
What time period are you looking at?
The chart on your link seems to be Oct 2013 - Jun 10, 2014
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:36 am to Ole War Skule
I'm a mean reverter therefore I'm easing out as we speak. The only thing I've bought lately is the timber cos.-PCL,ACAZF,RYN,PCH. I would refer anybody interested in mean reverting to the articles on the GMO website. It's gmo.com and it's free to register.
This post was edited on 7/2/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:41 am to Ole War Skule
You have to create your own chart using a longer time period so you can see the relationship between whichever index you choose, the smart money index and its relationship to previous pull backs.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 11:30 am to Enadious
quote:
Thinking about just going to cash. Correction will be between 10-40%.
Thanks for the info. How long will it last? When will it get back to where it was before it corrected?
Posted on 7/2/14 at 11:48 am to Enadious
After reading the responses in this thread I've decided the best thing to do is to just sell out right before the market starts going down......
This post was edited on 7/2/14 at 11:52 am
Posted on 7/2/14 at 12:04 pm to LSURussian
Good plan I'm in.
Do we buy back in right before it goes up??
Do we buy back in right before it goes up??
Posted on 7/2/14 at 12:05 pm to LSURussian
Buy low and sell high. At least you’d have the sell high part right. Unless, of course, the market continues to rise. I’m now semi-retired and holding steady about 50% stock and 50% bond mutual funds in my retirement accounts. In my stock trading (non-retirement money account) I am holding what I have but not buying. I’m keeping dividend income in a money market account with the brokerage as dry powder to be used in a correction situation.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 12:11 pm to rintintin
quote:Absolutely. You just have to buy when the market is at its lowest point. It's not difficult at all....
Do we buy back in right before it goes up??
Posted on 7/2/14 at 12:14 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I think we have pullback at 17k (5% mkt drop). May look at correction mid 2015 when "interest rates rise" so the Fed says. I don't think the correction will be more than 20% though. The mkt tried to have a correction in Jan-Feb, but what you saw is a lot of big companies/hedge funds doing exactly what your doing. They were cash heavy and waiting on the drop. So when the market hit -7% they all bought back in and raised the mkt back up. I think you will continue to see that trend as well.
What you need to watch for though is "dumb money" going into E-Trade type accounts. When there is a mass influx of money going into these accounts, then typically institutional money is flowing out and selling. We're not quite there yet, forward P/E's still show the market is at a discount even though we're at the top of the market.
For the record though, buy and hold is the only proven way.
What you need to watch for though is "dumb money" going into E-Trade type accounts. When there is a mass influx of money going into these accounts, then typically institutional money is flowing out and selling. We're not quite there yet, forward P/E's still show the market is at a discount even though we're at the top of the market.
For the record though, buy and hold is the only proven way.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 2:27 pm to LSURussian
quote:
quote:
Do we buy back in right before it goes up??
Absolutely. You just have to buy when the market is at its lowest point. It's not difficult at all....
Anybody can make money doing that. To really stand out from the crowd you need to think outside the box.
I explain it all in my newsletter.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 3:35 pm to tokenBoiler
Boiler Up!
Beef House.
50 yard line tix for $20.
Great road trip. I always make it.
Send me a linky to your extra special Boiler stock picks of the day newsletter.
Beef House.
50 yard line tix for $20.
Great road trip. I always make it.
Send me a linky to your extra special Boiler stock picks of the day newsletter.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 6:28 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Absolutely. You just have to buy when the market is at its lowest point. It's not difficult at all....
I have seen you come to this conclusion multiple times in money talk threads, I am starting to believe your thought process.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 8:50 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
The strategy guarantees a profit when done in the right circumstances.
That is how I see it, particularly for when you want to hold a stock and you think the market is ready to correct.
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:01 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Anyone who claims they know when to sell (or when to buy for that matter) before the time arrives is a liar. I never sell out completely. I'm also never 100% invested either. Warren Buffett said it best, "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."
Posted on 7/2/14 at 10:03 pm to SmackoverHawg
Bout a week after I decide to go all in....SELL!!!
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