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re: Mark Cuban "NFL is ten years from implosion"
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:29 am to Geauxld Finger
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:29 am to Geauxld Finger
quote:
here is the difference in those sports and the NFL. It's a limited number of games so they all matter. Baseball is 162 games, not every one matters, same with basketball.
People get amped up for Sunday football is his point. It is a day that people look forward to in order to unwind after church and such.
When you have it every day, it is no long "the football" day.
Combine that with lawsuits and concussion problems and football is screwed. Glad AU is becoming a basketball school now
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:30 am to JBeam
I think Cuban is right in theory, but I don't think it is applicable to what he is referencing.
Right now, the huge majority of NFL viewers don't have access to most games. With baseball for example, you get your market team almost every night, and a large percentage of fans get at least a fair number of other games nightly. That isn't a problem, but there is no value-added demand for the general product (baseball as opposed to Dodgers/Red Sox/etc. baseball) because it is readily available.
NFL demand, however, is much more generic, in part due to the popularity of the sport and in very large part due to fantasy football. Thus, moving games to other nights is likely to result in access that wasn't there at all before, instead of saturation.
There is a point where NFL can get over saturated, but there is such a strong hand in limiting access to content that I think we're a long way from that.
Cuban recognizes only one part of the NFL strategy in his statement - expansion of access. He doesn't mention that the NFL continues to carefully and selectively limit access as well, thus both keeping demand high and satisfying demand as well.
NFL is essentially throwing the generic football fan a bone by playing on other nights.
Right now, the huge majority of NFL viewers don't have access to most games. With baseball for example, you get your market team almost every night, and a large percentage of fans get at least a fair number of other games nightly. That isn't a problem, but there is no value-added demand for the general product (baseball as opposed to Dodgers/Red Sox/etc. baseball) because it is readily available.
NFL demand, however, is much more generic, in part due to the popularity of the sport and in very large part due to fantasy football. Thus, moving games to other nights is likely to result in access that wasn't there at all before, instead of saturation.
There is a point where NFL can get over saturated, but there is such a strong hand in limiting access to content that I think we're a long way from that.
Cuban recognizes only one part of the NFL strategy in his statement - expansion of access. He doesn't mention that the NFL continues to carefully and selectively limit access as well, thus both keeping demand high and satisfying demand as well.
NFL is essentially throwing the generic football fan a bone by playing on other nights.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:31 am to lsutigers1992
quote:
Middle class white kids will stop playing football. What percentage of the NFL do they make up?
You're not thinking about it properly. you're thinking in terms of players only, and they make up more than you think players-wise. I'd venture to say about 60% of your OL and 80% of your QBs are from middle class white backgrounds.
Plus, who supports the game? Middle class whites and their corporations they work for. If middle class white kids aren't playing the game, they will lose interest. Guaranteed. Look at boxing as a precedent.
And here's the biggest thing. Who pumps money into HS football programs and college football? Mainly middle class-upper class white kids' families. That stops as soon as they don't play or care anymore.
quote:
As long as there is an economic benefit to playing football, it will not end.
The economic benefit ends when the checks stop being cut due to lack of interest. Attendance is already waning in the college ranks.
quote:
And the rich schools and kids won't stop pouring money into football. They'll just bring the poor kids to their schools to play it for them. We've already seen that.
We've seen them bring over a handful of the poor kids, but the team is still comprised of at LEAST 50-75% rich kids/white kids at these schools.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:35 am to Moustache
I dont see enough parents restricting their kids from playing football to come close to that point.
Its one thing to say right now you wouldnt let your kids play, but in 10 years when the NFL has buried this whole thing with settlements and confidentiality agreements, and you look at your son begging to go play football with his middle school team with all his friends? I dont think youre going to give a frick about all this.
Its one thing to say right now you wouldnt let your kids play, but in 10 years when the NFL has buried this whole thing with settlements and confidentiality agreements, and you look at your son begging to go play football with his middle school team with all his friends? I dont think youre going to give a frick about all this.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:53 am to oldcharlie8
You think the NCAA is close to beating the NFL in ratings.
Idiot.
Idiot.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:56 am to BS
quote:
I like Cuban, but he couldn't be more wrong on this.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 12:04 pm to oldcharlie8
quote:
it'll never take over Saturdays. he's an idiot for even thinking that it will. i'd venture to say that Saturday's ncaa ratings may be close to being better than Sunday's.
The highest rated college game last year Mizzou/Aub and Bama & A&M had about 14 Million viewers. The NFL average game draws about 16 million.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 12:39 pm to oldcharlie8
quote:Don't venture, don't do it!
i'd venture to say that Saturday's ncaa ratings may be close to being better than Sunday's.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 1:02 pm to wildtigercat93
quote:
Its one thing to say right now you wouldnt let your kids play, but in 10 years when the NFL has buried this whole thing with settlements and confidentiality agreements, and you look at your son begging to go play football with his middle school team with all his friends? I dont think youre going to give a frick about all this.
I don't think this issue is going away. If anything, it will magnify as more and more people from who retired/played in the 90s come forward with similar injuries.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 1:55 pm to wadewilson
quote:
The Thursday games are a bit ridiculous, but he's crazy.
Only if the NFL can expand beyond US borders and grow international interest. I think there's some truth to what he's saying.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:10 pm to Moustache
quote:
I don't think this issue is going away. If anything, it will magnify as more and more people from who retired/played in the 90s come forward with similar injuries.
Its going to be really hard to plead ignorance after all the lawsuits that have already gone through
And eventually the perception will change from victims into retirees that were loose with their money and now have there hand out. Especially if some of the flashier players from the Free Agent era join in that movement.
The NFL wont have to pay billions of dollars every time a new lawsuit that comes out. They will settle a few here and there and come up with a slightly stronger retirement program with the NFLPA that will get the heat of their back for 20 cents on the dollar.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:19 pm to BS
quote:
I like Cuban, but he couldn't be more wrong on this.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:22 pm to Moustache
quote:
80% of your QBs are from middle class white backgrounds
if you are talking about the NFL this is just wrong. Most of the white QBs come from well off families and we are now having more and more black QBs.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:38 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
There is no "public mandate" for an 18-game schedule or more Thursday night games. This is all about lining YOUR pockets, so just freaking be honest about it.
You don't think increasing ratings is an indicator that the public wants more games? Thursday Night Football ratings increased 10% from '12-'13. So it's not as unpopular as some people want it to be.
The fallacy in Cuban's argument is the schedule has been more or less the same over the last several years. Sure they've added more Thursday games, but they've been playing Saturdays during the dead period in NCAA football for years.
The only thing that's changing next season is that CBS is going to simulcast half of the Thursday night games.
Sounds to me like he has sour grapes because the NFL is killing the NBA in ratings.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:39 pm to Dr RC
quote:
He is saying if they keep spreading to each night eventually it will over-saturate the market and cause people to grow tired of it.
Gamblers never get tired, and that's a huge part of what drives pro football
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:50 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
Gamblers never get tired, and that's a huge part of what drives pro football
These days its more fantasy football dorks
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:52 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:They're going to watch no matter what. They're not the demographic to worry about.
Gamblers never get tired, and that's a huge part of what drives pro football
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:54 pm to goldenbadger08
quote:
I hope he's right.
This doesn't surprise me at all.
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