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Comparing Bama, FSU, Oregon, OSU objectively
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:18 pm
I was playing with some numbers and thought I’d share. It doesn't mean much but thought I’d pass it on. Doesn't tell you much one wouldn't already conclude, but I’d give the edge to Bama and Oregon if they all finish undefeated and feel good about it.
Comparing Bama, FSU, Oregon, and Ohio St, here is what I found looking at the point differential of their games (final and at halftime) and also the ranking of their opponents. I used BCS rank for teams ranked in the BCS and current Sagaran for everyone else.
Average Point Differential/ Average opponent Rank/ Score/Rank (higher is better)
Bama 31.50/ 70.00/ 0.45
FSU 38.00/ 63.13/ 0.60
Oregon 38.75/ 77.00/ 0.50
OSU 31.22/ 90.33/ 0.35
Median Point Differential/ Median opponent Rank/ Score/Rank (higher is better)
Bama 30.00/ 60.50/ 0.50
FSU 34.50/ 64.50/ 0.53
Oregon 40.00/ 68.50/ 0.58
OSU 20.00/ 71.00/ 0.28
When you throw out the extreme scores, number gets a little closer
Average Pt Diff Final-Halftime/ Average % of Point Diff Scored at Halftime/ Median Pt Diff Final-Halftime/ Median % of Point Diff Scored at Halftime
Bama 8.63/ 73%/ 9.0/ 70%
FSU 18.25/ 52%/ 15.5/ 55%
Oregon 17.13/ 56%/ 17.5/ 56%
OSU 10.44/ 67%/ 9.0/ 55%
What this says, is Bama does their work in the first half, as 73% of their average point differential comes before halftime. Oregon and FSU come close to doubling up in the second half. Interpret how you will. Bama does less garbage. Looking at median, all but Bama expand the lead in second half by about 45%.
Moving forward, if you take the current rank of past and present actual and potential opponents you have:
AVE Opponent/ Median Opponent
Bama 59.23/ 47
FSU 66.10/ 65
Oregon 57.85/ 40
OSU 76.85/ 54
Top 4 Games
Bama
Neutral Mizzou TBD No. 8
at Auburn TBD No. 9
vs LSU TBD No. 13
at Tex A&M 49-42 No.15, 6 at time
FSU
at Clemson 51-14 No. 7, 3 at time
vs. Miami 41-14 No. 11, 7 at time
Neutral Miami TBD No. 11
at Florida TBD No. 22 (Sagaran)
Oregon
at Stanford TBD No. 5
at Washington 45-24 No. 18 (Sag), 16 at time
vs UCLA 42-14 No. 19, 12 at time
vs ASU TBD No. 22
Ohio St
Neutral Michigan St TBD No. 17
vs Wisconsin 31-24 No. 24, 23 at time
at Michigan TBD No. 38 (sag)
vs Iowa 34-24 No. 42 (Sag)
Cliffs:
-All four have played some BAD teams. Median is a better indicator IMO
-Still a ton left, obviously
-Bama scores early with less action in the second half (taking off the gas, you judge)
-Other 3 score a lot more in second half
-FSU has a solid argumnent for No. 1 today, but it's all down hill
-Bama and Oregon's schedules get much tougher
-Oregon plays the tougher schedule looking at average and median of opponents
Comparing Bama, FSU, Oregon, and Ohio St, here is what I found looking at the point differential of their games (final and at halftime) and also the ranking of their opponents. I used BCS rank for teams ranked in the BCS and current Sagaran for everyone else.
Average Point Differential/ Average opponent Rank/ Score/Rank (higher is better)
Bama 31.50/ 70.00/ 0.45
FSU 38.00/ 63.13/ 0.60
Oregon 38.75/ 77.00/ 0.50
OSU 31.22/ 90.33/ 0.35
Median Point Differential/ Median opponent Rank/ Score/Rank (higher is better)
Bama 30.00/ 60.50/ 0.50
FSU 34.50/ 64.50/ 0.53
Oregon 40.00/ 68.50/ 0.58
OSU 20.00/ 71.00/ 0.28
When you throw out the extreme scores, number gets a little closer
Average Pt Diff Final-Halftime/ Average % of Point Diff Scored at Halftime/ Median Pt Diff Final-Halftime/ Median % of Point Diff Scored at Halftime
Bama 8.63/ 73%/ 9.0/ 70%
FSU 18.25/ 52%/ 15.5/ 55%
Oregon 17.13/ 56%/ 17.5/ 56%
OSU 10.44/ 67%/ 9.0/ 55%
What this says, is Bama does their work in the first half, as 73% of their average point differential comes before halftime. Oregon and FSU come close to doubling up in the second half. Interpret how you will. Bama does less garbage. Looking at median, all but Bama expand the lead in second half by about 45%.
Moving forward, if you take the current rank of past and present actual and potential opponents you have:
AVE Opponent/ Median Opponent
Bama 59.23/ 47
FSU 66.10/ 65
Oregon 57.85/ 40
OSU 76.85/ 54
Top 4 Games
Bama
Neutral Mizzou TBD No. 8
at Auburn TBD No. 9
vs LSU TBD No. 13
at Tex A&M 49-42 No.15, 6 at time
FSU
at Clemson 51-14 No. 7, 3 at time
vs. Miami 41-14 No. 11, 7 at time
Neutral Miami TBD No. 11
at Florida TBD No. 22 (Sagaran)
Oregon
at Stanford TBD No. 5
at Washington 45-24 No. 18 (Sag), 16 at time
vs UCLA 42-14 No. 19, 12 at time
vs ASU TBD No. 22
Ohio St
Neutral Michigan St TBD No. 17
vs Wisconsin 31-24 No. 24, 23 at time
at Michigan TBD No. 38 (sag)
vs Iowa 34-24 No. 42 (Sag)
Cliffs:
-All four have played some BAD teams. Median is a better indicator IMO
-Still a ton left, obviously
-Bama scores early with less action in the second half (taking off the gas, you judge)
-Other 3 score a lot more in second half
-FSU has a solid argumnent for No. 1 today, but it's all down hill
-Bama and Oregon's schedules get much tougher
-Oregon plays the tougher schedule looking at average and median of opponents
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:20 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Point differential is silly. Say what you want about Saban, but he makes it a point not to run up the score.
Unlike some other schools out there.
Unlike some other schools out there.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:22 pm to genro
quote:
Point differential is silly. Say what you want about Saban, but he makes it a point not to run up the score.
That what it shows, without spending much more time digging. Bama adds about 30% in the second half, the other 3 add 45%.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:23 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Missouri isn't a lock to make the SECCG brah
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:25 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
I think this was going into last week, but Mark Packer on College Sports Nation said FSU's opponents had great W-L, while Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State's were all just under .500.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:28 pm to DMagic
quote:
Missouri isn't a lock to make the SECCG brah
Obviously, but as of today they're in first place. MSU, ASU, and Miami are not locks either.
Speculation is pretty pointless, but I threw it in there anyway.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:29 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
1st- Why not include Baylor?
2nd- Why the frick do you have Mizzou as one of Alabama's top 4 games? Same with Ohio State/Michigan State? And Miami and FSU?
If you're going to try to post a bunch of stats and facts, don't include any hypotheticals.
2nd- Why the frick do you have Mizzou as one of Alabama's top 4 games? Same with Ohio State/Michigan State? And Miami and FSU?
If you're going to try to post a bunch of stats and facts, don't include any hypotheticals.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:31 pm to CockRocket
Also, even if Mizzou does make the SECCG, I would say OM should be listed instead of them since OM will beat Mizzou.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:34 pm to CockRocket
quote:
1st- Why not include Baylor?
ran out of time. Baylor has beaten no one to date and scored a lot of points.
quote:
2nd- Why the frick do you have Mizzou as one of Alabama's top 4 games? Same with Ohio State/Michigan State? And Miami and FSU?
If you're going to try to post a bunch of stats and facts, don't include any hypotheticals.
I picked the teams currently in first place. It's clearly rankings as of today and potential matchups. Everything at the top is based on what's happened today.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:36 pm to CockRocket
quote:
Also, even if Mizzou does make the SECCG, I would say OM should be listed instead of them since OM will beat Mizzou.
As of today, Mizzou is the highest ranked team bama could potentially play. Obviously if USC wins the east they would replace Mizzou in the top 4.
I'm not publishing a paper, just looking at the teams potential future schedules.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:40 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Nice work man.
Thanks for posting.
Thanks for posting.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:40 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Here is what CFB fans know:
FSU has played several good teams.
Bama will play three more in the next five weeks.
Oregon will play one tonight (and again later).
OSU will not play any decent team until the B10CG.
Perhaps save this analysis for the end of the month?
FSU has played several good teams.
Bama will play three more in the next five weeks.
Oregon will play one tonight (and again later).
OSU will not play any decent team until the B10CG.
Perhaps save this analysis for the end of the month?
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:45 pm to EZE Tiger Fan
quote:
Perhaps save this analysis for the end of the month?
Of course, but that wouldn't be any fun
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:01 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
Of course, but that wouldn't be any fun
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:58 pm to EZE Tiger Fan
Setting all time records for victory margin over Top 25, Top 10, & spread vs undefeated top 10 opponent. As in.... EVER!
So, all you doubters come in here saying Maryland wasn't good or Miami was a soft top 10....
Ask yourself, we're they the worst ever? Not likely.
Oh yeah, Clemson that beat a loaded UGA.
FSU should be number 1 on performance to date. Easily.
So, all you doubters come in here saying Maryland wasn't good or Miami was a soft top 10....
Ask yourself, we're they the worst ever? Not likely.
Oh yeah, Clemson that beat a loaded UGA.
FSU should be number 1 on performance to date. Easily.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 5:31 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
As others have said, after a certain point, the margins of victory become somewhat useless. To date Bama has played 1 opponent that is still ranked. They beat A&M by 7 points.
I am not even going to look at tOSU as their schedule is a complete joke.
Oregon beat UW by 21 and UCLA by 28 or an average of 23.5 points.
FSU beat Clemson by 37 and Miami by 27 for an average of 32 points.
Based off of this stuff and the fact that Bama's best 2nd win is Ole Miss or Va Tech (both unranked), I'd say that FSU and Oregon are most deserving as of now.
I am not even going to look at tOSU as their schedule is a complete joke.
Oregon beat UW by 21 and UCLA by 28 or an average of 23.5 points.
FSU beat Clemson by 37 and Miami by 27 for an average of 32 points.
Based off of this stuff and the fact that Bama's best 2nd win is Ole Miss or Va Tech (both unranked), I'd say that FSU and Oregon are most deserving as of now.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 5:40 pm to Mahootney
quote:
Setting all time records for victory margin over Top 25, Top 10, & spread vs undefeated top 10 opponent. As in.... EVER!
So, all you doubters come in here saying Maryland wasn't good or Miami was a soft top 10....
Ask yourself, we're they the worst ever? Not likely.
Oh yeah, Clemson that beat a loaded UGA.
FSU should be number 1 on performance to date. Easily.
I agree that if you had fluid polls where voters move teams around weekly and not just mainly when they win or lose, FSU should be #1 right now. However, that's based on the Clemson win.
None of the rest of FSU's wins impress me any more than Oregon's or Alabama's against similar opponents.
I'm not sure why I should consider Maryland as any better an opponent than Tennessee, for example, in considering point differential.
I'm also not sure I'd say Miami is any more impressive than Ole Miss or UCLA (Ole Miss has better wins and UCLA close).
Let's not overlook which teams are currently unranked or ranked lower simply because they've lost to Top10/25 teams that others haven't played or else it's a similar problem with the polls as the one you're arguing against.
One could argue forever about these opponents but that's the point: they're all pretty close and Oregon and Alabama all had equally impressive wins against teams of this caliber.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 5:44 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 5:41 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Not trying to slam Alabama here at all, but this stuck out to me.
Like genro said, saban isn't one to run up the score...so those cupcakes they've played the last month probably skew that 1st half / 2nd half differential. They seal the deal early due to the low level of competition.
Should be interesting to keep up with through their next few games.
Like genro said, saban isn't one to run up the score...so those cupcakes they've played the last month probably skew that 1st half / 2nd half differential. They seal the deal early due to the low level of competition.
Should be interesting to keep up with through their next few games.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 6:00 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
Based off of this stuff and the fact that Bama's best 2nd win is Ole Miss or Va Tech (both unranked),
To suggest that Ole Miss is inseparable from Virginia Tech and obviously inferior to Washington, UCLA or Miami kind of flies in the face of looking at strength of schedule.
Ole Miss has better wins (@Texas by a lot and LSU) than any of those and have only lost to 2 top10/15 teams in one possession games aside from Alabama.
Ole Miss is the poster child this season for being punished in the polls for losing to good teams while teams pass them beating cupcakes.
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