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Started By
Message
re: Is Davis a disappointment?
Posted on 2/25/13 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 2/25/13 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
on a side note, i'm really interested to see what davis and big jonas do next year. before his injury people liked to compare davis to drummond on here, but jonas is playing pretty well for a 20-year old rookie who hasn't played the american game until this year
Motiejunas is only getting 5.5 mpg, so it's hard to compare him to guys logging substantial minutes.
1
Posted on 2/25/13 at 10:29 am to Jester
jonas valunciunas, of the raptors. the better of the 2 young lituanian bigs
jonas was drafted in 2011 and stayed in europe for a year and would have been the #2 pick this year if he was in teh 2012 draft
jonas is getting about 20-21 mpg and putting up 7/6 with a block and good %s. he's on a shorter leash than davis is, but when he gets minutes he usually produces. he also was injured for a bunch of games, like davis
jonas was drafted in 2011 and stayed in europe for a year and would have been the #2 pick this year if he was in teh 2012 draft
jonas is getting about 20-21 mpg and putting up 7/6 with a block and good %s. he's on a shorter leash than davis is, but when he gets minutes he usually produces. he also was injured for a bunch of games, like davis
Posted on 2/25/13 at 10:49 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
there's a big difference in being a 4/5 and a 2/3 (durant started out at the 2 his rookie year, as a 7-footer)
Durants rookie year was not that great. All we saw were lots of points but with terrible FG and 3PT%.
You could certainly see he would be very good, but he wasnt there as a rookie....sounds familiar
If you understand that they are different players with very different skills, Davis compares favorably to Durant as a rookie
Posted on 2/25/13 at 11:32 am to corndeaux
Davis is going to be a perennial all star. I can't wait for him to get a little stronger and more fine tuned. Gonna be tearing up the NBA, sons!!
Posted on 2/25/13 at 12:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
jonas valunciunas, of the raptors.
Don't mind me.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 3:44 pm to Jester
Do you want want with the analysis results below. Some will pick on them, and it is far from conclusive, but it's an accurate description of the association between some box score stats and game outcomes.
I took the top minute-getters since Gordon’s return (Aminu, Anderson, Davis, Gordon, Lopez, Vasquez) and looked at the correlation between several stats reported in the standard box score (not just minutes played) and the outcome of each game in that span of time.
Below are the most significant results of the study, ignoring the double-dips (e.g. when defensive rebounds couple, then significance of total rebounds, if present, is redundant). The team’s record during this span in the games in which the player recorded time is listed by each player’s name.
Aminu (12-14): The results are not terribly surprising. Aminu’s defensive rebounding and scoring couple significantly with victory. That’s about it. That’s not to say that he shouldn’t try to do anything else . . . the results may fail to hold if he leaves the `footprint’ the data has established.
Anderson (13-14): Something a little more interesting here. Anderson’s made three’s couple significantly to victory, as does the associated percentage. The more surprising result is that his number of free throw makes and free throw attempts are negatively correlated with victory; the make rate does not matter. These facts likely combine to mean that a team that forces Anderson inside the arc more often is more likely to win that does so less often, even at the cost of a foul.
Davis (13-14): The result shows that Monty is correct . . . lower minutes for Davis correlates with victory. This is not to say the Hornets will win more games if they continue to reduce Davis’ minutes. It doesn’t work that way. Other stats, such as free throw makes and free throw attempts, are negatively correlated with victory, but they all simply reflect that they tend to increase as playing time increases.
Gordon (10-10): The most significant thing Gordon does in terms of fueling wins is keeping his turnovers down, with more assists and higher free throw percentage contributing as well. Keeping his three pointers lower is a help, as well.
Lopez (13-14): More offensive rebounding by Lopez leads to more victories.
Vasquez (13-14): Not surprisingly, his scoring correlates to victory. Same with steals; his contributions here matter. More surprisingly, his assists are not correlated with victory, and his turnovers are not negatively correlated with victory (actually the correlation is positive, just not strong).
There’s some interesting stuff here, some of which confirm observations recently. Keep in mind, the absence of a factor likely means that it does not correlated to victory. For example, Lopez’s blocks do strongly affect the game. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, operating at the `upper end’ of his offensive rebounding range is what he can do to most help the team succeed on the court this season.
I took the top minute-getters since Gordon’s return (Aminu, Anderson, Davis, Gordon, Lopez, Vasquez) and looked at the correlation between several stats reported in the standard box score (not just minutes played) and the outcome of each game in that span of time.
Below are the most significant results of the study, ignoring the double-dips (e.g. when defensive rebounds couple, then significance of total rebounds, if present, is redundant). The team’s record during this span in the games in which the player recorded time is listed by each player’s name.
Aminu (12-14): The results are not terribly surprising. Aminu’s defensive rebounding and scoring couple significantly with victory. That’s about it. That’s not to say that he shouldn’t try to do anything else . . . the results may fail to hold if he leaves the `footprint’ the data has established.
Anderson (13-14): Something a little more interesting here. Anderson’s made three’s couple significantly to victory, as does the associated percentage. The more surprising result is that his number of free throw makes and free throw attempts are negatively correlated with victory; the make rate does not matter. These facts likely combine to mean that a team that forces Anderson inside the arc more often is more likely to win that does so less often, even at the cost of a foul.
Davis (13-14): The result shows that Monty is correct . . . lower minutes for Davis correlates with victory. This is not to say the Hornets will win more games if they continue to reduce Davis’ minutes. It doesn’t work that way. Other stats, such as free throw makes and free throw attempts, are negatively correlated with victory, but they all simply reflect that they tend to increase as playing time increases.
Gordon (10-10): The most significant thing Gordon does in terms of fueling wins is keeping his turnovers down, with more assists and higher free throw percentage contributing as well. Keeping his three pointers lower is a help, as well.
Lopez (13-14): More offensive rebounding by Lopez leads to more victories.
Vasquez (13-14): Not surprisingly, his scoring correlates to victory. Same with steals; his contributions here matter. More surprisingly, his assists are not correlated with victory, and his turnovers are not negatively correlated with victory (actually the correlation is positive, just not strong).
There’s some interesting stuff here, some of which confirm observations recently. Keep in mind, the absence of a factor likely means that it does not correlated to victory. For example, Lopez’s blocks do strongly affect the game. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, operating at the `upper end’ of his offensive rebounding range is what he can do to most help the team succeed on the court this season.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 4:02 pm to 42
The Davis is kind of chicken-egg though. Does him playing alot make us more likely to lose, or does Monty play him more in games where we don't have a shot to win? Personally, it's seemed to me that competitive games or games where we're winning in the fourth Monty is more likely to stick with smith, in games that are blowouts he lets Davis play more
Posted on 2/25/13 at 4:08 pm to tigerfan88
That would seem to draw the opposite conclusion.
One is free to check the play-by-play for games to get an idea for the allocation.
One is free to check the play-by-play for games to get an idea for the allocation.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:16 pm to 42
Anderson #s are interesting in that it is obvious limiting his 3s limit his effectiveness, so how does the staff stop that? What are some ways to stop teams from putting a 3 on him?
More time with Davis and the other starters? Less Aminu/Anderson? We saw Mason at the three v Sacramento with success, but Sacramento also is horrendous on defense.
He's getting better in the post, but I don't want him to live there. He needs half dozen 3PA a game
More time with Davis and the other starters? Less Aminu/Anderson? We saw Mason at the three v Sacramento with success, but Sacramento also is horrendous on defense.
He's getting better in the post, but I don't want him to live there. He needs half dozen 3PA a game
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:26 pm to Nissanmaxima
I'd say mildly, I'm sure he'll have a much better year next year.
he's certainly no rookie phenom like I was hoping he was.
With a record of 18-38, everybody's a dissapointment i'd say.
he's certainly no rookie phenom like I was hoping he was.
With a record of 18-38, everybody's a dissapointment i'd say.
This post was edited on 2/25/13 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:28 pm to primemover225
quote:
he's certainly no rookie phenom like I was hoping he was
He looked like it yesterday. Dude is dropping hammers left and right.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:39 pm to primemover225
i don't know...he's pretty great.
3 out of his last five games were double-doubles. The fourth was a 20 and 8 game.
...only one of these five games did he play 30 minutes or more.
averaging 16 and 10 with 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes...not to mention his outrageously good PER.
Lillard, who everyone is obsessed with, just isn't as good imho...playing 39 minute a game, averaging 18 points and 6.5 assists on 42% shooting. 15.7 PER (and Lillard is 3 years older).
Davis averages 13 and 8 with 2 blocks per game in 11 less minutes per game.
If Davis were playing those type of minutes, no doubt in my mind he'd be averaging a double-double.
I'm anticipating many MONSTER double-doubles next season. he's 19, getting better every day. 20,15, and 5 stat lines will be a regularity.
He should continue to get more minutes for the rest of the season, and the rookie phenom will shine.
3 out of his last five games were double-doubles. The fourth was a 20 and 8 game.
...only one of these five games did he play 30 minutes or more.
averaging 16 and 10 with 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes...not to mention his outrageously good PER.
Lillard, who everyone is obsessed with, just isn't as good imho...playing 39 minute a game, averaging 18 points and 6.5 assists on 42% shooting. 15.7 PER (and Lillard is 3 years older).
Davis averages 13 and 8 with 2 blocks per game in 11 less minutes per game.
If Davis were playing those type of minutes, no doubt in my mind he'd be averaging a double-double.
I'm anticipating many MONSTER double-doubles next season. he's 19, getting better every day. 20,15, and 5 stat lines will be a regularity.
He should continue to get more minutes for the rest of the season, and the rookie phenom will shine.
This post was edited on 2/25/13 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:41 pm to Jester
quote:
I don't give credit for being able to walk in heals.
they don't play basketball in socks
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:42 pm to HeadyBrosevelt
He is #21 in overall PER this year. He's doing just fine.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:46 pm to Brageous
Garnett as a skinny 19 year old rookie averaged 10 and 6 in 29 minutes.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:48 pm to primemover225
This should be posted on every page
quote:
lets examine a few other players in their 19 yr old season Dwight Howard- 12pts 10 rebs 1.7 blks 17.2 PER
Kevin Garnett- 10pts 6 rebs 1.6 blks 15.8 PER
Chris Bosh 11pts 7 rebs 1.4 blks 15.1 PER
Amare- 13pts 8 rebs 1 blk 16.2 PER
Andrew Bynum 6pts 7 reb 1.6 blk 15.4 PER
Josh Smith 9pts 6 rebs 1.9 BLK 15.4 PER
Jermaine O'Neal 4pts 3rebs 1blk 12.7 PER
Anthony Davis 12 pts 7 rebs 1.9 blks 20.5 PER IMo he's on a pretty good pace.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 5:50 pm to drake20
that's my biggest Monty complaint...more minutes for Davis the rest of the way
Posted on 2/25/13 at 6:19 pm to drake20
exactly why I don't understand people not getting it
AD is having a good year his rookie season compared to others in their time
He WILL get better and he WILL be an all star if he can stay healthy.
AD is having a good year his rookie season compared to others in their time
He WILL get better and he WILL be an all star if he can stay healthy.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 6:33 pm to Brageous
quote:
exactly why I don't understand people not getting it
AD is having a good year his rookie season compared to others in their time
He WILL get better and he WILL be an all star if he can stay healthy.
yep
...i knew he was gonna be a big time rebounder and shot blocker in the league. I questioned his scoring ability at this level. I think this was most people's concern.
that deep jump shot he has, to go along with the hustle plays, alley-oops, and very solid free throw percentage, is gonna make him a very good scorer....his high and low post moves should continue to improve drastically as well.
13 ppg in 28 mpg is much better than what i was expecting....with his minutes up, 17 and 10 averages or better are happening.
Posted on 2/25/13 at 6:41 pm to Brageous
quote:
exactly why I don't understand people not getting it
AD is having a good year his rookie season compared to others in their time
He WILL get better and he WILL be an all star if he can stay healthy.
Anyone who thought he'd be averaging over 20/10 this year is pretty dumb
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