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re: ND schedule, not SEC caliber, but harder than I thought
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:56 pm to rocket31
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:56 pm to rocket31
quote:
because one has a statistically greater chance of losing to purdue on any given year than they do vs western kentucky.
not in any meaningful way
it's like the star example i gave. if your odds go from 0.1% to 0.01%, the odds increased tenfold, but in reality there is no difference
quote:
the talent level is just superior and the NFL drafts and recruiting rankings confirm as much
so playing a really good 1AA team is a lot better than playing a bad 1AA team? c'mon. they're both auto-wins for a legit team
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:57 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i've argued for 9 years that SOS should only take into account the top 4-6 teams on a schedule
It's a very good point. At least weighted more heavily toward games played against teams on the Top 25 and Top 50.
I'd guess you may at least see this with a selection committee in the future like with basketball?
I don't dislike the human polls as much as many seem to because I think a lot of voters already do consider this.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:58 pm to wm72
quote:
I'd guess you may at least see this with a selection committee
don't get me started on that horrible idea
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
not in any meaningful way
obviously the talent level is more stratified than you are insinuating.
a hierarchy exists and it should be rewarded, its silly to suggest otherwise. hell, might as well just play 5 teams per year according to your logic.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:03 pm to rocket31
quote:
obviously the talent level is more stratified than you are insinuating.
they could have 100x the talent and 100x the chance of winning, but both are so close to 0 that it just doesn't matter to me
quote:
hell, might as well just play 5 teams per year according to your logic
honestly most CFB schedules come down to fewer than 5 real tests
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
but both are so close to 0 that it just doesn't matter to me
but that is not true; poverty AQ players get drafted at much higher rates than nonAQs.
why shouldnt one be rewarded for scheduling *tougher* competition?
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:07 pm to rocket31
quote:
that one anecdotal example is just not statistically significant whatsoever.
in general, the trend is for the poverty AQ schools (such as purdue) to be more talented than nonAQ schools (such as wku).
Over the long run I agree with about talent levels. Tennessee or Mich State, even if they're not great in a given year, do probably wear a team down slightly more than Navy or Western Kentucky.
However, back to my original point, all this arguing about cupcake opponents shifts focus away from top end strength which is where the overwhelming percentage of losses by Top10 teams derive.
Whether the difference is a 1/75 chance of losing or a 1/100 chance in losing between teams we're discussing is also not nearly as statistically relevant as playing three Top 15 teams instead of two.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:12 pm to KnoxvilleBerryTiger
ND has better wins then all of the sec except fla
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
honestly most CFB schedules come down to fewer than 5 real tests
Exactly, this year ND is an outlier a throwback to the 80's independents a full schedule, conference teams simpily aren't capable of playing a schedule as tough as ND played this year.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:13 pm to rocket31
quote:
why shouldnt one be rewarded for scheduling *tougher* competition?
because i don't think the difference has any real effect on the seasons, and it warps actual comparisons to the aspects of SOS that matter, imho
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:15 pm to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Exactly, this year ND is an outlier a throwback to the 80's independents a full schedule,
ND's schedule that "matters"
Stanford
OU
USC
Michigan
4 < 5
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
You can cherry pick all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:21 pm to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.
wake forest is a slightly bigger fly to get swatted by an elite team like ND. it's still just a fly
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:25 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Wake Forest would beat Western Kentucky by 40 how is that slightly bigger.
wake forest is a slightly bigger fly to get swatted by an elite team like ND. it's still just a fly
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:30 pm to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Wake Forest would beat Western Kentucky by 40
irrelevant
i'm not saying that wake isn't better
i'm saying that neither are legit threats to an elite team, so they're all in a big mass of teams who pose essentially equal risks to an elite team. any difference in threat level is negligible
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
Doesn't Michigan St belong on that list? So it would be 5=5
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:36 pm to sms151t
quote:
Doesn't Michigan St belong on that list?
they're 5-6
in the big10
so...no
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:36 pm to KnoxvilleBerryTiger
quote:
not SEC caliber
Bama and UGA's schedules are not as good as ND's.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:51 pm to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
You can cherry pick all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.
If I'm a legit team and you let me pick playing Wake 12 times in a season, or WKU 11 times and Bama once, I'm taking the Wake option every damn time.
Stanford, OU, Michigan, and USC is a solid top 4 games though, and definitely deserving of going to an NC game if the team that has that schedule goes undefeated, regardless of who else they play. I just don't see why any weight should be given to teams 8-12 on the schedule that aren't real threats, just because they've got a better name than the non-threats on everybody else's schedule.
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