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Started By
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re: Stats Don't Lie: LSU/Bama Stat Comparison
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:01 am to CajunBandit
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:01 am to CajunBandit
quote:i don't think anyone could say this better. comparing this team to bama at this point is just an academic exercise.
I get your point, but looking at the numbers makes me feel worse about what has happened so far this season. Inferior showings against inferior opposition. Turnovers and penalties indicate inferior coaching and/or composure.
we trailed freaking towson last night, and could not protect our QB against an FCS defensive line. call it lack of motivation, call it lack of preparation, call it whatever -- it is an ominous fact going into the meat of our schedule.
ETA: the best thing about this thread is the line about stats, when properly tortured, will confess to anything.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:03 am
1
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:05 am to jdd267
Are you fricking kidding me. You're actually going to try and argue that we're even comparable to bama right now? What a moron. We played North Texas, Idaho, and frickING TOWSON who is apparantely really good now to all the miles supporters. You people are sheep and cannot be reasoned with. Based on competition the stats should be in our favor in all categories. I'm done with these idiots who just accept mediocrity in life.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:06 am to oilfieldtiger
quote:Yeah, I lol'd at that one.
ETA: the best thing about this thread is the line about stats, when properly tortured, will confess to anything.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:17 am to Dijkstra
quote:
You're valuing 3 stats over every other stat.
Well you are putting way to much into these stats of yours. There is something called intangables that come into effect in every game.Bama has been very solid with the intangable part. Look I will put it this way. Bama has NOT had a game this year that I thought they even hada remote chance of losing. LSU can't say that.
quote:
Georgia is being heralded as a powerhouse
BY who???? Not this guy.
quote:
LSU isn't allowed to have bad games in the eyes of the fanbase.
I have never said this. ALL teams have bad games.
quote:
They then have two rough games against an embarrassed Auburn and an opponent no one even looked at on the roster, and as always, everyone becomes irrational. quote:
Well to be fair they looked like shite in both those games.IF you can't see that then I feel for ya. Can we rebound and improve??? SURE. But it better happen by Sat afternoon or a loss is coming our way.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:19 am to Dijkstra
Pirate, I think you might need a new major. Statistics obviously isn't your forte.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:21 am to jdrumdog
Let's be honest. This LSU football team is no where close to Bama's. Not close. 
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:25 am to CanIPlay636
There are FIVE things that genuinely concern me:
- T/O margin
- Mett's lack of awareness in the pocket
- Penalties
- The O-line
- Intensity
The last one bothers me most. LSU seems to play up or down to their opponents, but they were flat at Auburn, too. How do you not get up for a rivalry game? This team has played flat for all but one game. They were sleepwalking last night. Their best game was against their best opponent (UW), so they HAVE flipped the switch once, so hopefully they'll find the mojo this week. If not, it could be a long, frustrating season.
Play harder and smarter, which they are certainly capable of, and they are talented enough to run the table.
Also, not being superstitious, but for whatever reason, LSU does play like shite in the purple jerseys.
- T/O margin
- Mett's lack of awareness in the pocket
- Penalties
- The O-line
- Intensity
The last one bothers me most. LSU seems to play up or down to their opponents, but they were flat at Auburn, too. How do you not get up for a rivalry game? This team has played flat for all but one game. They were sleepwalking last night. Their best game was against their best opponent (UW), so they HAVE flipped the switch once, so hopefully they'll find the mojo this week. If not, it could be a long, frustrating season.
Play harder and smarter, which they are certainly capable of, and they are talented enough to run the table.
Also, not being superstitious, but for whatever reason, LSU does play like shite in the purple jerseys.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:25 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Piratezac
Serious question albeit off subject. Know a free tO cheap piece of software to calculate inter-eater reliability.
I have 3 raters who are not randomly chosen. We basically are using a tool with 10 markers. They look at an athlete on video and grade each marker a yes or no, whether the athlete has the market or not.
They are grading the same 5 athletes. Basically trying to determine if they grade those 5 similarly so that on the larger project they can split up the task of grading hundreds of athletes.
5 athletes each with ten markers (yes or no) and 3 graders.
Eta: sorry for spelling. On iphone
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:27 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:55 am to southernelite
quote:I disagree completely.
Sorry but stats do lie.
Stats never lie.
How an individual presents the stats and how they are interpreted can cause an individual to draw many different conclusions.
But stats in and of themselves tell exactly what they are supposed to tell. It is the person who lies... not the stats.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:58 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 11:04 am to Carlton Banks
Beat me to it. Stats don't lie. People who use them do.
It's amazing that the OP really just presented the stats and you can see how people use their bias to interpret the stats however they want.
It's amazing that the OP really just presented the stats and you can see how people use their bias to interpret the stats however they want.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 11:15 am to jwill37
quote:
Are you fricking kidding me. You're actually going to try and argue that we're even comparable to bama right now? What a moron. We played North Texas, Idaho, and frickING TOWSON who is apparantely really good now to all the miles supporters. You people are sheep and cannot be reasoned with. Based on competition the stats should be in our favor in all categories. I'm done with these idiots who just accept mediocrity in life.
Based on competition? You need to go check the records. LSU's faced defenses ranked at an average 65.75 in points allowed. Bama's average defense faced in the same category? 74.2. Towson would literally have to be rated 110-120 for LSU's average defense faced to be close. Considering Towson has faced 2 FBS and 2 FCS schools schools, which is similar to several FBS schools who are ranked and get to use their matchups against FCS schools in the rankings, I'd say that them allowing 28.25 PPG is not worthy of a 110-120 rank up there with teams who have faced FCS schools as well and are still giving up an average around 40 PPG. The competition's record is also skewed considering Bama's opponents have played more game.
Honestly, which do you think is a bigger win, a 41-14 win over Michigan or 41-3 win over Washington? I'm going with the one over the team who has actually beat a ranked opponent.
quote:
You people are sheep and cannot be reasoned with.
The irony is this statement. I come here with fact that support my claim. You base yours on anger, emotion, and stupidity. Nice.
quote:
Pirate, I think you might need a new major. Statistics obviously isn't your forte.
You go look at every stat I've posted and then come and tell me which ones outside of turnovers and penalties, which I said from the start were obvious, do not support my claim. My statistics are solid, and if you look through being upset over a bad game, you'll see that Bama is facing opponents with the same low quality as LSU. 3-2 Ole Miss, whose 3 wins come from Central Arkansas, Tulane, and UTEP, was their most competitive game, and it ended 33-14. The problem is that Bama's shitty opponents have more prestigious names and conferences, but they're still awful.
quote:
Let's be honest. This LSU football team is no where close to Bama's. Not close.
Only in your head. In every other category that matters, LSU has a better match up against Bama than its had in years. A power running game and a QB who can sling the ball is Alabama's kryptonite because they can't just stack the box or play the pass. When they're forced to do both, they have trouble. If and when LSU beats Bama this year, I don't want to see any of you coming here to brag.
quote:
The last one bothers me most. LSU seems to play up or down to their opponents, but they were flat at Auburn, too. How do you not get up for a rivalry game? This team has played flat for all but one game. They were sleepwalking last night. Their best game was against their best opponent (UW), so they HAVE flipped the switch once, so hopefully they'll find the mojo this week. If not, it could be a long, frustrating season. Play harder and smarter, which they are certainly capable of, and they are talented enough to run the table.
Wow. It's refreshing to see someone who actually watches the game for reasons other than to hate their life and become irrational. Thank you for being sensible.
quote:
Serious question albeit off subject. Know a free tO cheap piece of software to calculate inter-eater reliability.
Most software in that field is a bit pricey if you want quality. There may be a basic web app, but that's not a long term solution. Your best bet is to bite the bullet and get someone to build the system custom for you. That way instead of fighting with software to get it to do what you want. You specify the functionality, you get a finished product, and you can upgrade it as you see fit.
Let me ask this question. If I'd have changed the team names to Team A and Team B and you were never told which team was which, would you have thought that the teams are similar or near each other in caliber? If I took out the turnovers and penalties, would you have known who was who without taking a good look? If you say yes to that second one, I am incredibly interested in talking to you about analyzing some program logs for me because you have an incredible gift.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 11:22 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 11:42 am to Dijkstra
quote:this is meaningless without context. Scoring defense or yards allowed? What is the actual difference between those two defensive ranks? It could be as little as 1 point and 5 yards. I don't have to tell you that data in large sample tends to bunch in the middle.
LSU's faced defenses ranked at an average 65.75 in points allowed. Bama's average defense faced in the same category? 74.2.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 12:13 pm to Dijkstra
quote:
and a QB who can sling the ball
I highly doubt that our passing game is making Bama nervous at all.
quote:
A power running game
That power runnibg game didn't look to good on Jan 9th. Just sayin.I know its a different year, But for Our running game to be effective against Bama, Our PASSING game MUST improve. FACT.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:30 pm to dukke v
i'm an engineer, i love stats, and i love analytics by nature.
that said, i am completely biased by what i've seen the last two weeks to really take this statistical comparison seriously. i don't doubt the veracity of the stats, i just don't think they present an accurate assessment of LSU at this point in time.
LSU is 110th nationally in penalties per game, and 31st nationally in turnover margin -- with 8 turnovers this season compared to 10 all last season. Moreover, our two worst games have been the last two against Auburn and Towson. To me, these are indications of a team that's not really focused on beating opponents week-in week-out.
all that said, i'm hopeful we can improve going forward. it does seem like the intensity and focus ebbs and flows relative to the quality of opponent.
that said, i am completely biased by what i've seen the last two weeks to really take this statistical comparison seriously. i don't doubt the veracity of the stats, i just don't think they present an accurate assessment of LSU at this point in time.
LSU is 110th nationally in penalties per game, and 31st nationally in turnover margin -- with 8 turnovers this season compared to 10 all last season. Moreover, our two worst games have been the last two against Auburn and Towson. To me, these are indications of a team that's not really focused on beating opponents week-in week-out.
all that said, i'm hopeful we can improve going forward. it does seem like the intensity and focus ebbs and flows relative to the quality of opponent.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:29 pm to Dijkstra
quote:
the lack of offense, and the difficulty of running the ball against Bama. Those all played a major role in the outcomes of both match ups against Bama
quote:
Am I missing something? Thats still a problem
quote:
Yeah, apparently, you're missing these stats.
Passing Yards
LSU: 1016 yards (203.2 yards/game)
Bama: 1064 yards (212 yards/game)
Difference: +48 passing yards (8.8 yards/game), Bama
Rushing Yards
LSU: 1148 yards (212 yards/game)
Bama: 941 yards (188.2 yards/game)
Difference:+207 yards (23.8 yards/game), LSU
Rushing Yards Against
LSU: 415 yards (65 yards/game)
Bama: 329 yards (83 yards/game)
Difference: +86 rushing yards (18 yards/game) given up, LSU
Passing Yards Against
LSU: 674 yards (134.8 yards/game)
Bama: 629 yards (125.8 yards/game)
Difference: +45 passing yards (9 yards/game) given up, LSU
This post doesn't prove what I'm missing about the lack of running the ball and stuggles on offense against Bama
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:37 pm to Dijkstra
So, Bama is consistently better than us in just about every stat you posted, despite playing a tougher sched.
In reference to the tougher sched, id like to see some kind of average opponent ratings by sagarin or something to put it in to perspective. I dont think opponent W-L record does it justice when we're both playing cupcakes.
In reference to the tougher sched, id like to see some kind of average opponent ratings by sagarin or something to put it in to perspective. I dont think opponent W-L record does it justice when we're both playing cupcakes.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:37 pm to Dijkstra
Stats would rather climb the tallest tree and lie, than stand on the ground and tell the truth.
Damn Stats.
Damn Stats.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:48 pm to CanIPlay636
I don't see huge margins, except that we aren't palying to our full potential and they seem to be. I think we click tis week and roll through the res tof the schedule.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 1:04 pm to Dijkstra
We might as well not even show up November 3. WE FUUUUUUUCCCKKKKKEEEEDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!
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