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Real Estate Bubble Numbers
Posted on 11/30/11 at 7:31 pm
Posted on 11/30/11 at 7:31 pm
4
Posted on 11/30/11 at 8:37 pm to John Merlyn
This makes me nostalgic for the great real estate bubble threads we had in 2009 or so. Interesting times. That's around when MileHigh and Hapalap went insane and started buying guns and canned goods and shite 
Posted on 11/30/11 at 8:38 pm to John Merlyn
DFW seems to be doing the best, down from the highs but not as dramatic a dropoff as the others.
Posted on 11/30/11 at 8:43 pm to John Merlyn
he graph indicates that prices need to drop another 25-30%
Posted on 11/30/11 at 9:03 pm to LSUtoOmaha
As the graph indicates, the rate of change from 07-09 was significantly higher than the rate of change from 2009-2011. Accordingly, the number of threads started related to said changes has also decreased. Its absolutely not any less important IMO, but the broader public doesn't give a shite because there aren't hysterical headlines every month anymore.
Posted on 11/30/11 at 9:10 pm to kfizzle85
Real Estate is still climbing where I live. We dodged a bullet.
But if they cut the defense budget.....
But if they cut the defense budget.....
Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:12 pm to I Love Bama
2015-2016 is the bottom. 20 to 35% drop in most areas still to come.
Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:58 pm to MrLSU
quote:
20 to 35% drop in most areas still to come
Is that the consensus? What's the basis of that estimate? I'm just starting to try to get a handle on the housing market and all of its associated issues.
Reading up on it, I came across some comparisons of the housing prices indices from a little further back than the OP and some of them suggest we're pretty close to where we'd be if the early 2000's bubble didn't happen. Example:
So what in the story is this leaving out? Is the >20% number based on an assumption of the govt ending some of its policies incentivizing buying, or what?
Posted on 12/1/11 at 12:05 am to 90proofprofessional
No, he's just throwing a number out there for the sake of throwing a number out there.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:39 am to kfizzle85
exactly. this shite is so unique to each individual market that one number thrown out like that can't even come close to defining the complexity of where the "bottom" may actually be in some areas
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:48 am to Shankopotomus
Hey Shank. You got an email address I can get you at?
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:50 am to John Merlyn
Is this not inflation adjusted and why is 2000 an important date?
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:52 am to Shankopotomus
While I don't disagree with that, I think he was just talking about a national level. My problem is having a range that has a margin of error of like 50 percent (and of course my board pet peeve of people just throwing shite at the wall without any kind of reason for backing up their statements).
Posted on 12/1/11 at 11:14 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
so unique to each individual market that one number thrown out like that can't even come close to defining the complexity
Right, but that poster gave it as the minimum over a range, 20-35%, so the oversimplification aspect of the claim wasn't what I was concerned with. (For example, there's no way you're going to convince me to expect a 20% price drop in the DC area without some unforeseeable disaster happening, let alone 35%.)
It's the notion that there's definitely any significant drop still coming, across all local markets, that I'm asking about. Is there a rational basis for that view?
(Don't really lurk here much so I'm not familiar with the personalities, and any sarcasm will be lost on me. Also I will assume that everyone here is smarter than I am)
Posted on 12/1/11 at 11:36 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 to 35% drop in most areas still to come
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is that the consensus? What's the basis of that estimate? I'm just starting to try to get a handle on the housing market and all of its associated issues.
Hell no. In Brickell (Miami), prices have been rising all year (2011). Up about 10%. Rents are up about 15%.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 11:44 am to 90proofprofessional
I think if you asked most people who don't fall into either tail of overly bearish or overly bullish (so, using myself), they would tell you that the general trend is expected to be low single digit year over year decreases for the foreseeable future, or basically just flat. Its up to you to decide how relatively good or bad that might be.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 12:00 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
basically just flat
This is what I'd been coming to think, excluding the possibility of some significant change in govt incentives for buying.
One thing I came across that was interesting was that the mortgage deduction wasn't even on the deficit supercommittee's chopping block, despite the political climate. Safety net programs and defense spending were, but not that.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 3:44 pm to kfizzle85
One could also throw out that the states which allow non-judicial foreclosure could be much nearer a bottom than those that don't. Almost 700 days in some states to foreclose??? Free ride those mortgage payments. That shite don't happen in GA unless there is a serious issue with documentation. Wham, bam, thank you very little, next.
Posted on 12/2/11 at 10:17 am to tirebiter
The best factoid I've seen recently said that if you count all the "owners" who are currently not paying their mortgage, the "ownership" rate falls all the way to 61%.
Posted on 12/2/11 at 10:24 am to Tiger JJ
quote:
"owners"
I like the quotes there. Most people (myself included) aren't owners, we just live in the house.
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