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Started By
Message
Let's lay out the scenarios for the Lonhorns, assuming A&M leaves...
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:13 am
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:13 am
1. Texas decided to keep the remaining Big 12 teams together, and find new members to join. Schools to consider would be BYU, Notre Dame, TCU, SMU. Notre Dame is a pipe dream. Texas doesn't want to elevate TCU or SMU anymore than they need to (plus TCU is already heading to the Big East). BYU, with its own television network, could work. Wow...what a crappy conference this would become.
2. Texas decides to go to the Pac 12, assuming there is an invite. Eight of current 12 teams in the Pac-12 are more than 3+ hour flight from Austin. Wouldn't Pac-12 have issues with Longhorn Network?
3. Texas joins the Big 10, assuming it gets an invite. Geographically, this doesn't make sense either. Plus Big 10 would have issue with Longhorn Network.
4. Texas goes independent. This assumes that the Big 12 falls apart first and Texas doesn't have a new conference to join. Just don't see this being viable long term...
Now, one thing to consider is that the Big 12 loses Texas and OU in addition to A&M...but adds BYU, TCU, SMU and/or Houston. Yes, not a particularly strong conference, but it could still be a viable conference...stronger than Conference USA but right near the Big East in terms of strength.
2. Texas decides to go to the Pac 12, assuming there is an invite. Eight of current 12 teams in the Pac-12 are more than 3+ hour flight from Austin. Wouldn't Pac-12 have issues with Longhorn Network?
3. Texas joins the Big 10, assuming it gets an invite. Geographically, this doesn't make sense either. Plus Big 10 would have issue with Longhorn Network.
4. Texas goes independent. This assumes that the Big 12 falls apart first and Texas doesn't have a new conference to join. Just don't see this being viable long term...
Now, one thing to consider is that the Big 12 loses Texas and OU in addition to A&M...but adds BYU, TCU, SMU and/or Houston. Yes, not a particularly strong conference, but it could still be a viable conference...stronger than Conference USA but right near the Big East in terms of strength.
This post was edited on 8/30/11 at 10:16 am
6
Top Replies
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:25 am to Chicken
Great Post....
1. BYU is looking more and more likely, and you are correct on SMU and TCU. Although I wouldnt rule out UofH just yet. And yes, a very crappy conference without a championship game, in danger of losing it's TV contract and in a little danger of losing its BCS berth.
2. Yes, the LHN has most assuredly soured the milk when it comes to PAC12 & the BIG10. UT would have to completely back off any auspices of ever, ever broadcasting any conference games on the LHN...ever.
3. Correct once again
4. It is still my contention that after last year, and dancing around a bit, UT saw one of 3 viable options: joining the PAC12, joining the BIG10, or going independent. As talks broke down with the other conferences, UT became more and more comfortable with the notion of becoming an independent. So much so that they started to really set their sights on it. They knew the LHN was coming down the pipe, so they had their media vehicle in place, they just needed some time. Ultimately, they had no true desire to see the BIG12 survive in the long term, but jumping to independence was too premature, just a few more years to get their ducks in a row and it would be time to pull the trigger. They came back to the table to help put a band-aid on the BIG12, and they truly thought they could bide their time, for 5, 6, maybe 7 years.
now, A&M has drastically changed their timetable unexpectedly, and they're scrambling - I still dont think it changes their goal much though
1. BYU is looking more and more likely, and you are correct on SMU and TCU. Although I wouldnt rule out UofH just yet. And yes, a very crappy conference without a championship game, in danger of losing it's TV contract and in a little danger of losing its BCS berth.
2. Yes, the LHN has most assuredly soured the milk when it comes to PAC12 & the BIG10. UT would have to completely back off any auspices of ever, ever broadcasting any conference games on the LHN...ever.
3. Correct once again
4. It is still my contention that after last year, and dancing around a bit, UT saw one of 3 viable options: joining the PAC12, joining the BIG10, or going independent. As talks broke down with the other conferences, UT became more and more comfortable with the notion of becoming an independent. So much so that they started to really set their sights on it. They knew the LHN was coming down the pipe, so they had their media vehicle in place, they just needed some time. Ultimately, they had no true desire to see the BIG12 survive in the long term, but jumping to independence was too premature, just a few more years to get their ducks in a row and it would be time to pull the trigger. They came back to the table to help put a band-aid on the BIG12, and they truly thought they could bide their time, for 5, 6, maybe 7 years.
now, A&M has drastically changed their timetable unexpectedly, and they're scrambling - I still dont think it changes their goal much though
All Replies (51)
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:16 am to Chicken
quote:
Now, one thing to consider is that the Big 12 also Texas and OU in addition to A&M...but adds BYU, TCU, SMU and/or Houston. Yes, not a particularly strong conference, but it could still be a viable conference...stronger than Conference USA but right near the Big East in terms of strength.
EDIT BECAUSE I MISSED THE POINT:
I see #1 happening with adding BYU. They could add SMU and Houston to get to 12, but that's unlikely for the reasons you mentioned. It would be a virtual doormat of a conference, but OU and Texas would be winning each year (when Iowa State doesn't beat Texas down at DKR). They would prevent the blow up and you would think they could hold onto the automatic BCS bid.
This post was edited on 8/30/11 at 10:32 am
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:20 am to GerryDiNardo
Gerry, I meant, if Big 12 loses Texas, OU and A&M, it could still survive if it adds TCU and BYU and one other school. Not sure if it would keep its BCS bid (in this scenario, how could they not get one but the Big East would?).
If it didn't have the auto-BCS bid, then it would a blow to the football programs at schools like Baylor, Kansas, Ok State, etc...
If it didn't have the auto-BCS bid, then it would a blow to the football programs at schools like Baylor, Kansas, Ok State, etc...
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:22 am to Chicken
SMU to bigXXII 
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:23 am to GerryDiNardo
This is why I think its funny when all of them say "good riddance" and "dont let the door hit ya".
Three BCS level teams just left the conference because of you and now everything will be ok because you are bringing in BYU?
Do they not remember why the SWC died in the first place?
Im not sure whats gonna happen, but I know that A&M is going to be in a better position. Whatever they decide to do, its not going to be a better position than what they had for the last decade that allowed their glory run.
Three BCS level teams just left the conference because of you and now everything will be ok because you are bringing in BYU?
Do they not remember why the SWC died in the first place?
Im not sure whats gonna happen, but I know that A&M is going to be in a better position. Whatever they decide to do, its not going to be a better position than what they had for the last decade that allowed their glory run.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:25 am to Chicken
Great Post....
1. BYU is looking more and more likely, and you are correct on SMU and TCU. Although I wouldnt rule out UofH just yet. And yes, a very crappy conference without a championship game, in danger of losing it's TV contract and in a little danger of losing its BCS berth.
2. Yes, the LHN has most assuredly soured the milk when it comes to PAC12 & the BIG10. UT would have to completely back off any auspices of ever, ever broadcasting any conference games on the LHN...ever.
3. Correct once again
4. It is still my contention that after last year, and dancing around a bit, UT saw one of 3 viable options: joining the PAC12, joining the BIG10, or going independent. As talks broke down with the other conferences, UT became more and more comfortable with the notion of becoming an independent. So much so that they started to really set their sights on it. They knew the LHN was coming down the pipe, so they had their media vehicle in place, they just needed some time. Ultimately, they had no true desire to see the BIG12 survive in the long term, but jumping to independence was too premature, just a few more years to get their ducks in a row and it would be time to pull the trigger. They came back to the table to help put a band-aid on the BIG12, and they truly thought they could bide their time, for 5, 6, maybe 7 years.
now, A&M has drastically changed their timetable unexpectedly, and they're scrambling - I still dont think it changes their goal much though
1. BYU is looking more and more likely, and you are correct on SMU and TCU. Although I wouldnt rule out UofH just yet. And yes, a very crappy conference without a championship game, in danger of losing it's TV contract and in a little danger of losing its BCS berth.
2. Yes, the LHN has most assuredly soured the milk when it comes to PAC12 & the BIG10. UT would have to completely back off any auspices of ever, ever broadcasting any conference games on the LHN...ever.
3. Correct once again
4. It is still my contention that after last year, and dancing around a bit, UT saw one of 3 viable options: joining the PAC12, joining the BIG10, or going independent. As talks broke down with the other conferences, UT became more and more comfortable with the notion of becoming an independent. So much so that they started to really set their sights on it. They knew the LHN was coming down the pipe, so they had their media vehicle in place, they just needed some time. Ultimately, they had no true desire to see the BIG12 survive in the long term, but jumping to independence was too premature, just a few more years to get their ducks in a row and it would be time to pull the trigger. They came back to the table to help put a band-aid on the BIG12, and they truly thought they could bide their time, for 5, 6, maybe 7 years.
now, A&M has drastically changed their timetable unexpectedly, and they're scrambling - I still dont think it changes their goal much though
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:27 am to Chicken
TCU is the prize now.
SEC is going to want them after they take Tex A&M.
Does TCU go SEC or Tex's Big/9.
If TCU goes to the SEC, whew!
Texas would be sweating, then.
SEC is going to want them after they take Tex A&M.
Does TCU go SEC or Tex's Big/9.
If TCU goes to the SEC, whew!
Texas would be sweating, then.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:30 am to Chicken
quote:
If it didn't have the auto-BCS bid, then it would a blow to the football programs at schools like Baylor, Kansas, Ok State, etc...
My bad. Clearly they would lose the auto BCS bid if they were to lose OU or Texas. You are right about surviving by adding TCU and BYU, but I doubt TCU would give up an auto-bid conference to join the remnants. There are decent enough schools remaining (obviously excluding OU and Texas), but I don't think they would settle for a non-BCS conference and some might be targets for the BCS conferences on expansion.
OK State is a package deal with OU. Texas Tech is most likely going to try to piggy back in with OU or Texas as well. Missouri is a good program that brings the STL market, but I think the Big 10 said they weren't interested. Kansas seems like a natural fit in the Big East.. if you could imagine that conference being any better at basketball. KState might be a package deal with Kansas.
Iowa State and Baylor are screwed.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:33 am to ottothewise
quote:
TCU is the prize now.
I don't see that at all. There's no chance they join the SEC, and they've rebuilt the program because they WEREN'T in the Big XII. I think TCU is perfectly happy joining the Big East.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:36 am to GerryDiNardo
quote:
My bad. Clearly they would lose the auto BCS bid if they were to lose OU or Texas. You are right about surviving by adding TCU and BYU, but I doubt TCU would give up an auto-bid conference to join the remnants. There are decent enough schools remaining (obviously excluding OU and Texas), but I don't think they would settle for a non-BCS conference and some might be targets for the BCS conferences on expansion.
The Big 12 is grandfathered into a BCS bid for the time being, so they'd be able to retain one until the next "evaluation period" is finished, provided they survive as a conference.
"Survive" in this sense means "They have 7 members with a continuous history of playing each other", which is the NCAA requirement for a conference to be recognized. That may go out the window depending how many of the Texas Techs and Okie States of the league jump ship if/when OU and Texas leaves.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:38 am to GerryDiNardo
quote:
I think TCU is perfectly happy joining the Big East.
even if they weren't, it'd be a terrible idea for them politically to bail on the Big East before they even get going
I dont think the SEC really has their eye on TCU for this go round...maybe, perhaps when teams 15 & 16 enter the discussion years down the road, maybe
but not right now
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:39 am to Chicken
OK Chicken here's my response:
1. Even if you did add a 10th team (BYU, Houston, even Air Force) you still have instability.
Mizzou wants out and prays that the B1G takes it in (this is why I'm not a fan of Mizzou going to the SEC, they'll always be looking to leave).
Kansas (either with or without K-State) is looking to the Big East (where its basketball tradition best fits).
2. Notwithstanding the Longhorn Network issues, would the PAC-12 accept Texas as a standalone invite, or would it have to be a package deal with one or more schools? If the latter, how bad would the PAC-12 take Texas (most likely with OU) IF it had to bring Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?
3. Again notwithstanding the Longhorn Network issues, could Mizzou try to get in on this deal as a package (the B1G is their dream destination after all)?
4. Texas may try this, Big 12-2-1 or no Big 12-2-1. OU would get royally hosed at this point.
If the conference loses both Texas and OU (in addition to A&M's departure) it would probably lose its AQ status no matter who comes in.
1. Even if you did add a 10th team (BYU, Houston, even Air Force) you still have instability.
Mizzou wants out and prays that the B1G takes it in (this is why I'm not a fan of Mizzou going to the SEC, they'll always be looking to leave).
Kansas (either with or without K-State) is looking to the Big East (where its basketball tradition best fits).
2. Notwithstanding the Longhorn Network issues, would the PAC-12 accept Texas as a standalone invite, or would it have to be a package deal with one or more schools? If the latter, how bad would the PAC-12 take Texas (most likely with OU) IF it had to bring Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?
3. Again notwithstanding the Longhorn Network issues, could Mizzou try to get in on this deal as a package (the B1G is their dream destination after all)?
4. Texas may try this, Big 12-2-1 or no Big 12-2-1. OU would get royally hosed at this point.
If the conference loses both Texas and OU (in addition to A&M's departure) it would probably lose its AQ status no matter who comes in.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:41 am to teke184
quote:
The Big 12 is grandfathered into a BCS bid for the time being
Valid point. The current eval period is from 2010-2013. So depending on when the cards fall, this might give them at least a year and possibly 4 years should it happen after the 2013 season.
This post was edited on 8/30/11 at 10:42 am
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:42 am to Chicken
I think Texas will wind up in either the Pac 16 or B1G. Issues over the LHN can be resolved.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 10:46 am to Quidam65
I have a hard time seeing the Pac-12 and Big 10, as tradition rich as they claim they are, going to 16 teams or even 14 teams, especially if those teams are so far removed geographically...talk about losing your identity that you try so hard to preserve.
I think Stu is correct in that Texas has a plan to be independent, if they are forced to go that route. However, Notre Dame is not independent in sports outside of football. Would Texas go this route...perhaps competing in the weakened Big 12 in other sports?
I think Stu is correct in that Texas has a plan to be independent, if they are forced to go that route. However, Notre Dame is not independent in sports outside of football. Would Texas go this route...perhaps competing in the weakened Big 12 in other sports?
Posted on 8/30/11 at 11:37 am to Chicken
big mistake for football fans if they go independent. with tv, maybe they can make more money. For example, Look at NOtre Dame. who cares about them? it has got to hurt recruiting that they dont belong to a conference with rivalries and a CHAMPIONSHIP!
It used to be big to play ND, but that day has passed. The BCS changed all that. Penn State and Florida State were smart enough to figure that out.
YOu can't play for the NC every year, but it's great to compete for your division and conference championships.
i would think the same for Texas. Sooner or later you become irrelevant to the rest of College Football as an Independent.
better to take less money and belong to a football tradition for the school. IMO.
It used to be big to play ND, but that day has passed. The BCS changed all that. Penn State and Florida State were smart enough to figure that out.
YOu can't play for the NC every year, but it's great to compete for your division and conference championships.
i would think the same for Texas. Sooner or later you become irrelevant to the rest of College Football as an Independent.
better to take less money and belong to a football tradition for the school. IMO.
This post was edited on 8/30/11 at 11:40 am
Posted on 8/30/11 at 12:06 pm to Chicken
B1G--My argument there would be if Texas were to get an invite, Mizzou would try to tag along as that's where they want to be.
PAC-12--I can see them going to 16 teams, that's what they tried to do last year. Scott's pushing the 16-team model. And apparently they're fine with mid-level schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State tagging along with Texas and OU, just don't push things by discussing bottom-feeders like Baylor. Would they do a deal without Texas, if say OU was the main prize? We may well find out within another year.
I can't see Texas being independent in all their sports. Their baseball team is a powerhouse. Indy in football and the SunBelt Upgrade in everything else is most likely. But if the football thing flops will any conference want their drama?
PAC-12--I can see them going to 16 teams, that's what they tried to do last year. Scott's pushing the 16-team model. And apparently they're fine with mid-level schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State tagging along with Texas and OU, just don't push things by discussing bottom-feeders like Baylor. Would they do a deal without Texas, if say OU was the main prize? We may well find out within another year.
I can't see Texas being independent in all their sports. Their baseball team is a powerhouse. Indy in football and the SunBelt Upgrade in everything else is most likely. But if the football thing flops will any conference want their drama?
Posted on 8/30/11 at 12:26 pm to Chicken
quote:
I have a hard time seeing the Pac-12 and Big 10, as tradition rich as they claim they are, going to 16 teams or even 14 teams, especially if those teams are so far removed geographically...talk about losing your identity that you try so hard to preserve.
They both just exanded, tradition rich is code for wanting to keep the Rose Bowl deal. I suspect both have contingency's for expansion already. Texas may not fit geographically with either, but culturally, academically and finacially they do. Notre Dame and Texas have to be the B1G's wet dream.
As far as going Indy, I agree Texas has looked at it, but I think they realize they are better off in a conference. In a BCS conference you have 2 ways to make a BCS bowl, as an Indy just 1.
And someone mentioned ND making more money. I don't think that's true anymore, they were getting about 8-9M a year, vs $20M for all B1G teams.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 12:43 pm to H-Town Tiger
Texas home slate for 2012 assuming A&M gets replaced by BYU.
WYOMING
NEW MEXICO
IOWA STATE
BAYLOR
MISSOURI
BYU
2013
NEW MEXICO STATE
OLE MISS
OSU
KANSAS
TEXAS TECH
KSU
that is absolutely horrible.
WYOMING
NEW MEXICO
IOWA STATE
BAYLOR
MISSOURI
BYU
2013
NEW MEXICO STATE
OLE MISS
OSU
KANSAS
TEXAS TECH
KSU
that is absolutely horrible.
Posted on 8/30/11 at 12:49 pm to G4LSU
quote:
WYOMING
NEW MEXICO
IOWA STATE
BAYLOR
MISSOURI
BYU
That's straight up CUSA level. Missouri and BYU are only threats and even then moderate.
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