re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale

quote:

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But.... I think in the early days of the Haynesville, you saw similar circumstances to what's going on now with the TMS. They all have to start somewhere. I don't think those Haynesville boys wrote $20,000/acre checks on day 1. I also mentioned before that it has been said that in the Haynesville, they really didn't know what they had until they hit the 25-30 well mark. Then all hell broke loose. My guess is the TMS should be at that level in the Tangy/Feliciana/Avoyelles/Point Coupee area sometime this year.

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Also, 2008 was pre-financial collapse and it was a different time to raise money as a large independent oil company. The two biggest players who drove costs so high in the Haynesville are not active in the Tuscaloosa (Petrohawk has been sold, and Chesapeake isn't active down there). Also, gas in 2008 was > $10 per mcf. Companies face much more stringent borrowing costs now. It is much easier to move gas molecules than oil molecules through these shale plays, and the barnett and fayetteville were not overly difficult to transfer drilling and completion techniques to the Haynesville save for some of the deeper hotter areas. The Tuscaloosa appears to be much different than any of the other liquids plays active around the country so the risk profile is much higher at this stage. No one has yet completed a commercial TMS well, and until that changes don't expect bonus money to go much higher. The odds of seeing a Haynesville type leasing flurry are slim to none.