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OFFICIAL BCS/ NATIONAL TITLE DISCUSSION
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:05 pm
BCS STANDINGS
Well AU, TCU, and Oregon all looked poise to fall in the first quarter, but all pulled out wins. I'll assume nothing will come of the Cam Newton scandal and LSU has no chance of an SEC title. That still leaves open a very slight chance at a National Title...you DO NOT have to win your conference to play for a National Championship (and don't bring up UGA...they could have played, they just weren't as deserving as LSU in 07). LSU will have an amazing computer score at 11-1, maybe better than anyone in the nation (but AU) including undefeated Oregon. But they need LOTS of help. At the very least the 2 of the following 3 would absolutely have to happen:
1. Oregon loses
2. TCU loses
3. Auburn loses to Bama and SC
It is almost impossible for LSU to pass undefeated TCU and make it into the title game. Also, if Auburn finishes 12-1 by losing to SC that almost certainly stay above LSU. While 2 of the above 3 HAVE to happen, I am mostly of the opinion that at least 2 of the following 3 also need to happen.
1. Boise loses
2. The Big12 champ (NU/Ok State) loses again
3. Wisconsin loses
Now I can see LSU finishing above any or all of those teams if a National Title is not on the line. But when push comes to shove, voters would be very inclined to vote the Big12 or Big 10 champ (and certainly Boise) above LSU for the NC. Even if LSU beat out NU/Wisconsin, they would probably steal enough votes from LSU to give Boise the human poll cushion it needs.
LSU VERSUS TCU ARGUMENT
There has been some talk of LSU passing undefeated TCU and no matter how I crunch the numbers and come up with different scenarios it seems almost impossible. Putting aside any "Cam Newton effect", it is silly to think that more than a handful of voters would put LSU above TCU. LSU's best shot at passing TCU would be the following:
1. Auburn loses twice
2. Oregon and TCU win out
3. Boise, Wisconsin, the Big12 champ, and probably Stanford/Ohio State all lose
#3 is a necessity because all of those teams would steal votes from LSU. I think LSU would be #1 in the computers and TCU would be #3; then LSU would only need to be within one full spot of TCU in the human polls. That almost seems plausible but I think TCU would get as many 1st place votes as LSU gets 2nd place votes. And this is in the ludicrous scenario where Boise, Wisconsin, Big 12 champ, Ohio State, and Stanford all lose (and AU loses twice).
* If there aren't NT implications, it is more possible that LSU passes TCU
BCS BOWL POSSIBILITIES
At 11-1 LSU would seem like a lock to make a BCS bowl. In fact, they may finish top 4 of the BCS making them an "auto qualifier". But if 12-0 Auburn loses to SC, then South Carolina goes to the Sugar and Auburn almost definitely finishes above LSU in the final BCS. If Auburn finished #3 or #4 above LSU, they get the auto bid and the SEC can only have 2 teams...so LSU is left in the cold.
Assuming AU won the SEC, LSU would have an excellent chance at 10-2 and it seems almost definite the SEC gets 2 teams in. If Bama and Arky each lose, LSU would almost certainly get that spot; otherwise it would be a tough call and that would be up to the Bowls to decide who brings the best draw (probably Bama).
BCS Bowl Projections:
1. NC game: AU versus Oregon
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
3. Rose: Wisconsin versus TCU
4. Orange: Va Tech versus Pitt
5. Fiesta: Nebraska versus Boise
*The Sugar doesn't have to take LSU and some believe that the Sugar hates taking LSU because they don't sell hotel rooms, etc. But I think their relationship with the SEC makes it likely.
Well AU, TCU, and Oregon all looked poise to fall in the first quarter, but all pulled out wins. I'll assume nothing will come of the Cam Newton scandal and LSU has no chance of an SEC title. That still leaves open a very slight chance at a National Title...you DO NOT have to win your conference to play for a National Championship (and don't bring up UGA...they could have played, they just weren't as deserving as LSU in 07). LSU will have an amazing computer score at 11-1, maybe better than anyone in the nation (but AU) including undefeated Oregon. But they need LOTS of help. At the very least the 2 of the following 3 would absolutely have to happen:
1. Oregon loses
2. TCU loses
3. Auburn loses to Bama and SC
It is almost impossible for LSU to pass undefeated TCU and make it into the title game. Also, if Auburn finishes 12-1 by losing to SC that almost certainly stay above LSU. While 2 of the above 3 HAVE to happen, I am mostly of the opinion that at least 2 of the following 3 also need to happen.
1. Boise loses
2. The Big12 champ (NU/Ok State) loses again
3. Wisconsin loses
Now I can see LSU finishing above any or all of those teams if a National Title is not on the line. But when push comes to shove, voters would be very inclined to vote the Big12 or Big 10 champ (and certainly Boise) above LSU for the NC. Even if LSU beat out NU/Wisconsin, they would probably steal enough votes from LSU to give Boise the human poll cushion it needs.
LSU VERSUS TCU ARGUMENT
There has been some talk of LSU passing undefeated TCU and no matter how I crunch the numbers and come up with different scenarios it seems almost impossible. Putting aside any "Cam Newton effect", it is silly to think that more than a handful of voters would put LSU above TCU. LSU's best shot at passing TCU would be the following:
1. Auburn loses twice
2. Oregon and TCU win out
3. Boise, Wisconsin, the Big12 champ, and probably Stanford/Ohio State all lose
#3 is a necessity because all of those teams would steal votes from LSU. I think LSU would be #1 in the computers and TCU would be #3; then LSU would only need to be within one full spot of TCU in the human polls. That almost seems plausible but I think TCU would get as many 1st place votes as LSU gets 2nd place votes. And this is in the ludicrous scenario where Boise, Wisconsin, Big 12 champ, Ohio State, and Stanford all lose (and AU loses twice).
* If there aren't NT implications, it is more possible that LSU passes TCU
BCS BOWL POSSIBILITIES
At 11-1 LSU would seem like a lock to make a BCS bowl. In fact, they may finish top 4 of the BCS making them an "auto qualifier". But if 12-0 Auburn loses to SC, then South Carolina goes to the Sugar and Auburn almost definitely finishes above LSU in the final BCS. If Auburn finished #3 or #4 above LSU, they get the auto bid and the SEC can only have 2 teams...so LSU is left in the cold.
Assuming AU won the SEC, LSU would have an excellent chance at 10-2 and it seems almost definite the SEC gets 2 teams in. If Bama and Arky each lose, LSU would almost certainly get that spot; otherwise it would be a tough call and that would be up to the Bowls to decide who brings the best draw (probably Bama).
BCS Bowl Projections:
1. NC game: AU versus Oregon
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
3. Rose: Wisconsin versus TCU
4. Orange: Va Tech versus Pitt
5. Fiesta: Nebraska versus Boise
*The Sugar doesn't have to take LSU and some believe that the Sugar hates taking LSU because they don't sell hotel rooms, etc. But I think their relationship with the SEC makes it likely.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:07 pm to lsumatt
Hopefully we don't play Ohio St. again. I'm tired of whooping their arse.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:09 pm to lsumatt
I just cannot understand how TCU's computer ranking can be so high with such a trash schedule. I know they put a ton of weight into being undefeated, maybe that is what needs to change.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:10 pm to lsumatt
quote:
1. NC game: AU versus Oregon
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
3. Rose: Wisconsin versus TCU
4. Orange: Va Tech versus Pitt
5. Fiesta: Nebraska versus Boise
LSU vs. OSU is the best game outside of the BCSCG IMO
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:11 pm to lsumatt
As always, good job and thanks.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:11 pm to lsumatt
Pissible, but pollsters will see to it a non-SEC champ will not make it to the game
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:17 pm to lsumatt
It ashame that neither TCU/Oregon/Boise State is really that good. They are all beatable. I think Auburn and Boise State have the best offensive team in the Nation. LSU has the best defense followed by TCU..
Playoff System would be great this year.
At least we have Oregon in the first game next year!
Playoff System would be great this year.
At least we have Oregon in the first game next year!
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:23 pm to lsumatt
Sagarin and the ELO-Chess would have you believe the SEC West is pretty damn stout.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:24 pm to lsumatt
Don't you think Auburn would fall further than 4 in the polls if they lose to SC? Tennessee fell to the Citrus Bowl in 01 when we beat them.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:27 pm to lsumatt
I have to respectfully disagree with your possibilites.
LSU will be closer to Boise and TCU this week. Boise St. is currently 0.0492 ahead of us. TCU is 0.1089. Both of these margins will be smaller this week if the trend from the Coaches poll is the same in the Harris Poll.
I said it last week and I will say it again. Last week TCU peaked in the BCS. It can only go down in both the computer and human polls. Boise St. is are main threat. Hopefully Nevada will take care of them but I don't see that happening.
You are going to see it all even out between LSU, Boise St. and TCU after we play Arkansas. If Auburn loses to Alabama we go to the BCSNG even if they beat South Carolina. You heard it here first.
LSU will be closer to Boise and TCU this week. Boise St. is currently 0.0492 ahead of us. TCU is 0.1089. Both of these margins will be smaller this week if the trend from the Coaches poll is the same in the Harris Poll.
I said it last week and I will say it again. Last week TCU peaked in the BCS. It can only go down in both the computer and human polls. Boise St. is are main threat. Hopefully Nevada will take care of them but I don't see that happening.
You are going to see it all even out between LSU, Boise St. and TCU after we play Arkansas. If Auburn loses to Alabama we go to the BCSNG even if they beat South Carolina. You heard it here first.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:49 pm to lsumatt
If au loses to either bama or sc, they will NOT stay above lsu in the bcs.
Other than that, and the huge implications it has on your analysis, you got good info.
Other than that, and the huge implications it has on your analysis, you got good info.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:51 pm to lsumatt
Title game is a long shot but it's all happened before with CLM. I would like one of the undefeated media darlings in the Sugar if Auburn wins out.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 12:59 pm to lsumatt
quote:
But if 12-0 Auburn loses to SC, then South Carolina goes to the Sugar and Auburn almost definitely finishes above LSU in the final BCS. If Auburn finished #3 or #4 above LSU,
How do you know that Auburn wouldn't slide any further if they lose to SC?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 1:03 pm to lsumatt
I know I'm being overly optimistic but...
Oregon can very well lose to Arizona or Oregon St.
the Big 12 Champ could also very easily be a 2 loss team as Nebraska and Ok St. both have tough games remaining, if either of them lose we simply need them to win the Big 12 Championship game which also isn't too much to ask, Okie St. will certainly be the underdogs when they go to Norman
Auburn losing to Bama is probably going to be likely since I'm assuming Bama will be a 3 pt favorite at home in that game
I really feel like we will all be at home watching football on December 4th just needing a South Carolina upset of Auburn and an Oregon St. home win against their rival....and possibly an Okie St. win over Nebraska
Oregon can very well lose to Arizona or Oregon St.
the Big 12 Champ could also very easily be a 2 loss team as Nebraska and Ok St. both have tough games remaining, if either of them lose we simply need them to win the Big 12 Championship game which also isn't too much to ask, Okie St. will certainly be the underdogs when they go to Norman
Auburn losing to Bama is probably going to be likely since I'm assuming Bama will be a 3 pt favorite at home in that game
I really feel like we will all be at home watching football on December 4th just needing a South Carolina upset of Auburn and an Oregon St. home win against their rival....and possibly an Okie St. win over Nebraska
Posted on 11/14/10 at 1:17 pm to lsumatt
quote:
ome believe that the Sugar hates taking LSU because they don't sell hotel rooms, etc
this is a false assumption. and why do you think LSU has no chance to pass TCU?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 1:37 pm to lsumatt
quote:
But if 12-0 Auburn loses to SC, then South Carolina goes to the Sugar and Auburn almost definitely finishes above LSU in the final BCS. If Auburn finished #3 or #4 above LSU, they get the auto bid and the SEC can only have 2 teams...so LSU is left in the cold.
lsumatt,
I agree with what you say here, technically, but based on the numbers, you think a #2 Auburn losing in the SECCG to possibly #15ish SC team would only drop them 1-2 spots?
I really think it would be close. Depending on how close LSU is to #3/4 going into the SECCG, it might not matter the outcome.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 1:59 pm to lsumatt
quote:
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
would bring an occasion to revisit the "SEC is Slow" signs at GAMEDAY in Columbus yesterday...
Posted on 11/14/10 at 2:02 pm to lsumatt
Matt is Wisconsin going to jump LSU for the 5 spot in the BCS today? Or will the top 5 remain the way it is?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 3:21 pm to lsumatt
quote:
BCS Bowl Projections:
1. NC game: AU versus Oregon
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
3. Rose: Wisconsin versus TCU
4. Orange: Va Tech versus Pitt
5. Fiesta: Nebraska versus Boise
Matt, I think the Orange would take either Stanford or a second Big Twelve team (Oklahoma State or Mizzou. Also Nebraska if they lose in the CCG) before Pitt. That would send Pitt to the Fiesta and knock Boise out.
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