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5A State Playoff Predictions

Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:51 am
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
89718 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:51 am
winners are in bold
ROUND ONE
quote:




32 Covington at 1 Dutchtown

Dutchtown has 7 wins over teams .500 or better and they rolled through one of the toughest 5A districts in the state. Covington barely beat an 0-10 Fontainebleau and got rolled up by St Paul's. So give me Dutchtown by 4+TDs


17 Brother Martin at 16 Carencro

Carencro has a nice team full of young talent, but they are extremely one dimensional on offense. Brother Martin is a bit more balanced on offense and they are coming off a huge upset of Jesuit last Friday. I say Brother Martin in a mild upset on the road

24 Westgate at 9 Ponchatoula

I have a want to predict the annual Westgate roll in the playoffs but this Westgate team is in disarray from discipline issues. They are running a Wing-T offense that they are either ill suited for or don't understand. However they are VERY tough on defense and could give Ponchy a scare for a while. So I say Ponchy at home comfortably dispatches westgate with some late scoring.

25 Denham Springs at 8 Higgins

DS started off the season 2-3 with three straight losses and looked to be dead in the water. Then they ripped off 5 straight wins (against opponents with a combined 15-35 record) to close out the season. Higgins has been steady all season scoring a lot of points against a fairly weak schedule and winning 8 in a row. The difference here is DS going to the West Bank. So I say Higgins at home in a pickem.

28 Sulphur at 5 Jesuit

Sulphur is a young team that has had some mighty struggles over the last 4 weeks. The schedule says Sulphur 2 Acadiana 0 but on the field it was Acadiana 75 Sulphur 14. Couple that with a terrible loss to a mediocre Lafayette High and then getting smoked by Barbe and Sulphur is ending their season on a down note. Consequently taking a long trip to New Orleans and playing a very well coached Jesuit team is bad news for the Tors. Jesuit wins this one pretty easy .

21 Mandeville at 12 Terrebonne

Wow what a historic match up of uninteresting teams. Both teams have a total of 2 wins against teams with winning records. Both teams have head scratching losses (Rummel and New Iberia). Both teams play in big districts that skewer their power rankings and make it tough to gauge their real ability. So I will go with Terrebonne reluctantly but I would not be surprised if Mandeville pulls off the upset.

20 Slidell at 13 Barbe

Barbe is a very interesting team that could make a serious run in the playoffs. They spread the field with their WRs but can also run it. They are a bit spotty on defense but they should have no problem dispatching Slidell

29 Chalmette at 4 West Monroe

Hey thanks for coming all this way to see us Owls, enjoyed your visit, be careful going home. Sorry about the score and stuff, we tried to get the 4th string kids in there as fast as we could.

30 Natch Central at 3 St Paul's

NCHS slides into the playoffs at the end of the season and their reward is a trip to Covington to face a supremely physical St Paul's team. St Paul's is not flashy, they prefer to maul you up front and that is not a good match up for NCHS. St Paul's wins easily

19 Central at 14 NISH

An intriguing game here in New Iberia. Central HS Doug Dotson is a former STM asst coach and he no doubt spoke to the STM staff this week about NISH after STM struggled with NISH in the first half and blew them out in the second half. Central was wide open last year but this year they are more ground oriented on offense which could be a problem for NISH. NISH HC Rick Hutson is an offensive specialist and SR QB Jordy Joseph is a special talent. I have to think Central will have success running the ball against NISH and so I say Central in the upset.

22 Assumption at 11 Zachary

Zachary has gotten better each week, Assumption has a 7-3 record but they haven't really played anybody. I like Zachary and their spread option attack at home.

27 Acadiana at 6 East St John

ESJ wants you to play a shootout, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ wants you to turn the ball over, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ wants you to give up the big play, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ doesn't want to get into a situation where they are making adjustments to what Acadiana is doing, which is what Acadiana will make you do. I predict Acadiana will win based on two things: 1) Micah Eugene will play offense and defense and he is a game changer. 2) Ted Davidson is one of the top 3 5A coaches in the state and he is extremely experienced, where as I dont have a clue who is coaching ESJ since Larry Dauterive stepped down. Acadiana wins on the road in an upset by seeding, but not on the field.

26 Byrd at 7 Ouachita

Ouachita Parish has had a nice season under the radar. Their only loss was to WM in week 6. They beat Byrd 34-7 in district play, expect more of the same.

23 Catholic BR at 10 St Augustine

I saw CHSBR play STM in week 3 and they were the softest team I think I have ever seen STM play. St Aug is reportedly not very well coached but they have talent stacked upon talent. I expect St Aug to win by two TDs or more in what should be a fairly high scoring game.

18 West Jeff at 15 Hahnville

I know 15 vs 18 should be a close matchup but these two teams are unusually close. They have two common opponents, both lost to Dutchtown, both beat John Ehret. The main difference I see is Hahnville playing at home in what is historically a VERY tough place to play. So I will say Hahnville wins a tight ball game.

31 Airline at 2 STM

STM has way too many weapons and is extremely efficient in getting the ball to those weapons. STM has been keyed by a strong running game and a Soph QB that throws it. Airline also has a Soph QB that doesn't have the running game to fall back on. I say STM wins at home comfortably.

14-2



ROUND TWO
quote:


(1)Dutchtown @ (17)Brother Martin

(8)Higgins @ (24)Westgate

(12)Terrebonne @ (5)Jesuit

(13)Barbe @ (4)West Monroe

(14)New Iberia @ (3)St. Paul's

(11)Zachary @ (27)Acadiana

(10)St. Aug @ (7)Ouachita

(15)Hahnville @ (2)St. Thomas More

7-1



quote:

Quarter Finals

Dutchtown over Westgate
Wess Funrowe over Jesuit
Acadiana over St Paul's
STM over St Aug

3-1



quote:

West Monroe at Westgate

Acadiana at STM

1-1
This post was edited on 12/6/10 at 10:12 am
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
215970 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:52 am to
quote:

The difference here is DS going to the West Bank



I still like the Jackets chances.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
89718 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:55 am to
yeah me too, that is why I said it was a pickem with higgins getting the nod over the home field
Posted by NOLATiger86
New Orleans
Member since Oct 2005
8250 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:56 am to
quote:

29 Chalmette at 4 West Monroe

Hey thanks for coming all this way to see us Owls, enjoyed your visit, be careful going home. Sorry about the score and stuff, we tried to get the 4th string kids in there as fast as we could.


Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
64460 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:01 am to
quote:

supatigah


Posted by bubbz
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
23083 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:06 am to
Good predicitions. I too like Central in a mild accident.
Posted by GeauxColonels
Tottenham Fan | LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2009
25606 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:07 am to
Good assessments here. Looks like you and I are pretty much on the same page:

Dutchtown over Covington
Brother Martin over Carencro
Ponchatoula over Westgate
Higgins over Denham Springs
Jesuit over Sulphur
Mandeville over Terrebonne
Barbe over Slidell
West Monroe over Chalmette
St. Paul's over Natchitoches Central
Central over New Iberia
Zachary over Assumption
Acadiana over East St. John
Ouachita over Byrd
St. Augustine over Catholic
Hahnville over West Jefferson
St. Thomas More over Airline


Although I think there are a few games that could go either way:
I picked Hahnville in their match-up with West Jeff. And, as you said, these teams historically play close games. However, Hahnville has been very "up-and-down" with their play this year. With Ensminger nursing a bad knee for pretty much the second half of the season, they're relied heavily on Ahmad White...he's good, but he's no Alfred Blue. What gives them the nod in my mind is the fact that they got blown out by ESJ last week. I don't think Coach Lou Valdin will let this team lose focus this week.

I picked Mandeville mainly because I think Terrebonne's record is a fraud. I've watched teams in the bayou region play for years and can't remember the last time any of them made any real "noise" in the playoffs.

Central over New Iberia. Central is tough to figure out. They've had a few solid wins, had one win practically gifted to them by Zachary (I believe) after the Broncos scored at the end of the game but flubbed the XP. But then they lost to Capitol. I don't understand it. I still think that this team is good and the coaching staff will have the kids turn it on in the playoffs.

Acadiana is, in my mind, one of the top 3 teams in the state. However, they've been given a draw that shouldn't have occurred until at least the Quarterfinals...if not the Semi-Finals. ESJ is as explosive on offense as you'll find in 5A...but they have no defense. I see this possibly being a shoot-out, with Acadiana pulling away late and winning by 10-14 points.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:14 am to
quote:

26 Byrd at 7 Ouachita

Ouachita Parish has had a nice season under the radar. Their only loss was to WM in week 6. They beat Byrd 34-7 in district play, expect more of the same.


Yellow Jackets gonna run Wahhshitall outta town brah
Posted by RedPop4
Santiago de Compostela
Member since Jan 2005
15053 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:15 am to
quote:

I have a want to predict the annual Westgate


LOVE the Milespeak.
Good work. I hope you're right about Brother Martin, but I don't think they're as balanced on offense as you do. Ronnie Arant tends to float the ball too high, and when he DOES make good passes, his receivers drop the ball. :(
Posted by bwallcubfan
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2007
38773 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:15 am to
quote:

32 Covington at 1 Dutchtown

17 Brother Martin at 16 Carencro

24 Westgate at 9 Ponchatoula

25 Denham Springs at 8 Higgins

28 Sulphur at 5 Jesuit

21 Mandeville at 12 Terrebonne

20 Slidell at 13 Barbe

29 Chalmette at 4 West Monroe

30 Natch Central at 3 St Paul's

19 Central at 14 NISH

22 Assumption at 11 Zachary

27 Acadiana at 6 East St John

26 Byrd at 7 Ouachita

23 Catholic BR at 10 St Augustine

18 West Jeff at 15 Hahnville

31 Airline at 2 STM

Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:18 am to
quote:

24 Westgate at 9 Ponchatoula


please explain
Posted by RaginCajunsULL
Da Berry
Member since Jan 2009
13993 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:20 am to
quote:

I have a want to predict the annual Westgate roll in the playoffs but this Westgate team is in disarray from discipline issues. They are running a Wing-T offense that they are either ill suited for or don't understand. However they are VERY tough on defense and could give Ponchy a scare for a while. So I say Ponchy at home comfortably dispatches westgate with some late scoring.




Westgate 7-0 on the Road in the Playoffs lol. ALLTIME
This post was edited on 11/12/10 at 11:22 am
Posted by SouthBR Tiger
Prairieville
Member since Dec 2003
1339 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:27 am to
quote:

27 Acadiana at 6 East St John

ESJ wants you to play a shootout, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ wants you to turn the ball over, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ wants you to give up the big play, which Acadiana won't do. ESJ doesn't want to get into a situation where they are making adjustments to what Acadiana is doing, which is what Acadiana will make you do. I predict Acadiana will win based on two things: 1) Micah Eugene will play offense and defense and he is a game changer. 2) Ted Davidson is one of the top 3 5A coaches in the state and he is extremely experienced, where as I dont have a clue who is coaching ESJ since Larry Dauterive stepped down. Acadiana wins on the road in an upset by seeding, but not on the field


ESJ's coach is named Ronald Barrilleaux. He's been at ESJ for the past 9 years. He is much more of a disciplinarian than Dautrieve was and the kids respect him.
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
54156 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:30 am to
CHS will beat St.Aug
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
54156 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:30 am to
wait a minute, who the frick am i kidding? that jackass is still coaching

st.aug rolls most likely
Posted by starlight
A beach somewhere in the Caribbean
Member since Oct 2008
2041 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:34 am to
Can I just mention Denhams running back Kaleb Blanchard has over 1500 yards rushing for the season and since the Central game he has mostly played 1st halves of games. When he broke the record he cried and thanked the o line for blocking for him. Kid is a great player and person
Posted by etow69
Lake Charles
Member since Nov 2007
1050 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:37 am to
Does Acadiana have a legit chance to make it to the Dome? I know having being forfieted all those game they had to get a lower seed and now have to play nothing but highly ranked teams the whole way through. Do they still have enough to overcome that and make it to the dome?
Posted by Hogkiller10
LP
Member since Jan 2010
1538 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:40 am to
Here are the lines we set at the site. We dont use the Massey Ranking system but do use it for stat purporses. After running it through a simulator 25 times, here are the results:

Dutchtown (-22.5) vs Covington (+22.5)
Carencro (-2.5) vs Brother Martin (+2.5)
Ponchatoula (-2.5) vs Westgate (+2.5)
Higgins (-2.5) vs Denham Springs (+2.5)
Jesuit (-23.5) vs Sulphur (+23.5)
Terrebone (-4.5) vs Mandeville (+4.5)
Barbe (-5.5) vs Slidell (+5.5)
West Monroe (-29.5) vs Chalmette (+29.5)
St Pauls (-29.5) vs Natchitoches Central (+29.5)
New Iberia (PICKEM) vs Central (PICKEM)
Zachary (-4.5) vs Assumption (+4.5)
East St John (+7.5) vs Acadiana (-7.5)
Ouchita (-19.5) vs Byrd (+19.5)
Hahnville (-8.5) vs West Jeff (+8.5)
St Augustine (-2.5) vs Catholic (+2.5)
St Thomas More (-29.5) vs Airline (+29.5)

Of course, some lines look off, but of course, thats why we play the game.

This post was edited on 11/12/10 at 11:41 am
Posted by KBeezy
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2004
13611 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:45 am to
quote:

Can I just mention Denhams running back Kaleb Blanchard has over 1500 yards rushing for the season and since the Central game he has mostly played 1st halves of games. When he broke the record he cried and thanked the o line for blocking for him. Kid is a great player and person



1650 yards and 20 touchdowns on 160 carries. 10.3 ypc on the season in 5A through a district that sent 4 to the playoffs

I like DS chances
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
215970 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:52 am to
quote:

1650 yards and 20 touchdowns on 160 carries. 10.3 ypc on the season in 5A through a district that sent 4 to the playoffs

I like DS chances






AGREED!!!! I think they go along way this year. That shitty start hurt what seed they are. I think its way to low.
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