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Started By
Message
Bookie says they won't play
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:18 am
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:18 am
Take this for what it's worth. My good friend is a professional gambler. He's putting a lot on the LSU game. So, he called his bookie to find out how the line might move on the UNC game if these players are held out.
The bookie says it's already been decided but not officially announced that the players being investigated will not play.
Interestingly, the bookie said it will not make a big difference on the line. Vegas is very concerned about this scenario... A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
The bookie says it's already been decided but not officially announced that the players being investigated will not play.
Interestingly, the bookie said it will not make a big difference on the line. Vegas is very concerned about this scenario... A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
13
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:44 am to Zach
Interesting!
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:48 am to Zach
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:48 am to Zach
hmmmmmmmm interesting
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:49 am to Zach
quote:
Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
There are probably not very many people that did that, the odds are very low it hits right down the middle, if it does, what they lose is not a big deal.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:55 am to Zach
The most likely scenario is that the guy placing that double bet loses one and wins the other. Whcih means Vegas wins by collecting the vig on the bets, and the win/loss cancels out. Multiply by all the gmablers employing this stupid stategy and Vegas will make a killing so long as LSU doesn't win "within" the spread.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:55 am to Zach
Well I did see on the news that Vegas pulled the game off the boards....citing the UNC players being suspended as the main reason
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:58 am to Zach
quote:
A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed
Not that I have lots of sympathy for bookies, but the line moves to LSU -4 not because of the announcement about players sitting, but because the betters drive it there due to the announcement. And if there's a lot of money put on UNC + 4, that will drive the spread wider. Vegas is all about balancing the book.
This post was edited on 8/31/10 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:08 pm to Zach
quote:
last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions
Losing 6 defensive starters only moves the line 3 points!!!!!!!
Boy they must really think highly of our offense.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:17 pm to Zach
quote:This.
Vegas is all about balancing the book.
The whole point of a moving line is to ensure that the bookie has an equal number of losing bets and winning bets so that the losers cover the winners and the bookie takes the vig. If one side is being bet more than the other, the line moves to entice more bets on the other side to even things out. The whole idea of "Vegas taking a beating" from an unlikely outcome is simply incorrect.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:50 pm to Zach
quote:Vegas gets creamed on those bets, but they will be offset by bets the other way. I'm not sure you understand how Vegas bookies make money.
and Vegas gets creamed.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:15 am to Zach
quote:
Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
frick vegas! They have "creamed" so many people for so many years that it is nice to see them take a fricking every now and then.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:00 pm to Zach
quote:
If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets
the rant will explode if LSU by a FG
This post was edited on 9/3/10 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:38 pm to Zach
trying to middle a game is tough.
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