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![locked post](https://www.tigerdroppings.com/images/layout/lock.gif)
QB debate should center around one thing: Offensive Production
Posted on 3/30/10 at 6:34 pm
Posted on 3/30/10 at 6:34 pm
I went back to each game, counted the number of series that each QB was under center, and the results. QBs were not given credit for defensive or special teams points. I also did not count series where LSU was running out the clock at the end of a half. Here are the facts:
Lee
App St – 4 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
No. Tex – 3 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Auburn – 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 23 points
Miss St – 9 series, 4 TDs, 2 FGs = 34 points
Fla - 10 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
So. Car - 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Ga - 12 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Tulane - 8 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Bama - 13 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Troy - 13 series, 5 TDs, 2 FGs = 40 points
Ole Miss - 5 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 1 series, = 0 points
Tul - 1 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Bama - 4 series, 1 TD = 7 points
La Tech - 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Jefferson
No. Tex – 1 series, = 0 points
Tulane - 1 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Troy - 4 series, = 0 points
Ole Miss - 6 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Ark - 13 series, 3 TDs, 3 FGs = 30 points
Ga Tech - 11 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Wash - 9 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Vandy - 11 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
ULL - 8 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Miss St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Ga - 11 series, 2 TDs, 2 FGs = 20 points
Fla – 8 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 10 series, 4 TDs, 1 FG = 31 points
Tul - 7 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Bama - 6 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Ole Miss - 11 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 16 points
Ark - 9 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
Penn St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Totals:
Lee -- 105 series, 48 scores, 286 points; 2.72 points per series, scored on 46% of drives
JJ -- 152 series, 52 scores, 297 points; 1.95 points per series, scored on 34% of drives
That scoring % is quite a difference. I was also stunned that despite having 5 more starts, JJ only has Lee by 11 points. One would think Miles and Crowton have stats people that could produce these same numbers.
Lee
App St – 4 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
No. Tex – 3 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Auburn – 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 23 points
Miss St – 9 series, 4 TDs, 2 FGs = 34 points
Fla - 10 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
So. Car - 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Ga - 12 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Tulane - 8 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Bama - 13 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Troy - 13 series, 5 TDs, 2 FGs = 40 points
Ole Miss - 5 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 1 series, = 0 points
Tul - 1 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Bama - 4 series, 1 TD = 7 points
La Tech - 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Jefferson
No. Tex – 1 series, = 0 points
Tulane - 1 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Troy - 4 series, = 0 points
Ole Miss - 6 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Ark - 13 series, 3 TDs, 3 FGs = 30 points
Ga Tech - 11 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Wash - 9 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Vandy - 11 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
ULL - 8 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Miss St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Ga - 11 series, 2 TDs, 2 FGs = 20 points
Fla – 8 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 10 series, 4 TDs, 1 FG = 31 points
Tul - 7 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Bama - 6 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Ole Miss - 11 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 16 points
Ark - 9 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
Penn St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Totals:
Lee -- 105 series, 48 scores, 286 points; 2.72 points per series, scored on 46% of drives
JJ -- 152 series, 52 scores, 297 points; 1.95 points per series, scored on 34% of drives
That scoring % is quite a difference. I was also stunned that despite having 5 more starts, JJ only has Lee by 11 points. One would think Miles and Crowton have stats people that could produce these same numbers.
Posted on 3/30/10 at 6:36 pm to TIsuGGER
can we get a stat on how many of their INTs and fumbles have led to points for the opponent?
Posted on 3/30/10 at 6:46 pm to TIsuGGER
quote:
I was also stunned that despite having 5 more starts, JJ only has Lee by 11 points
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/icons/surprised.gif)
Posted on 3/30/10 at 6:53 pm to TIsuGGER
And what were the stats for Charles Scott in 2008 and 2009 respectively? This is getting ridiculous people. ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconspank.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconspank.gif)
Posted on 3/30/10 at 7:05 pm to TIsuGGER
You can't directly compare them unless you take into account the differing lines/WRs.
Posted on 3/30/10 at 7:05 pm to TIsuGGER
You did a lot of analysis to ignore a very basic and important fact. The OL in 2008 was 10x better than the OL in 2009. Compare the production of Charles Scott from the two years and you'll see a huge difference.
Lee may indeed be the better QB. But, your analysis is very simplistic and frankly is useless.
Lee may indeed be the better QB. But, your analysis is very simplistic and frankly is useless.
Posted on 3/30/10 at 7:14 pm to TIsuGGER
Let's do it fairly and just look at games against "real" opponents
Totals:
Lee -- 70 series, 28 scores, 171 points; 2.44 points per series, scored on 40% of drives
JJ -- 131 series, 47 scores, 252 points; 1.92 points per series, scored on 36% of drives
Then if you don't count the games against Florida and Bama...
JJ - 117 series, 45 scores, 242 points; 2.07 points per series, scored on 38% of drives
Still impressive to see difference, but just wanted to be more fair and not count games against Tulane, LaTech, and ULL
quote:
Lee
Auburn – 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 23 points
Miss St – 9 series, 4 TDs, 2 FGs = 34 points
Fla - 10 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
So. Car - 8 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Ga - 12 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Bama - 13 series, 3 TDs = 21 points
Ole Miss - 5 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 1 series, = 0 points
Bama - 4 series, 1 TD = 7 points
quote:
Jefferson
Ole Miss - 6 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Ark - 13 series, 3 TDs, 3 FGs = 30 points
Ga Tech - 11 series, 5 TDs, 1 FG = 38 points
Wash - 9 series, 3 TDs, 1 FG = 24 points
Vandy - 11 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
Miss St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Ga - 11 series, 2 TDs, 2 FGs = 20 points
Fla – 8 series, 1 FG = 3 points
Aub - 10 series, 4 TDs, 1 FG = 31 points
Bama - 6 series, 1 TD = 7 points
Ole Miss - 11 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 16 points
Ark - 9 series, 2 TDs, 3 FGs = 23 points
Penn St - 13 series, 2 TDs, 1 FG = 17 points
Totals:
Lee -- 70 series, 28 scores, 171 points; 2.44 points per series, scored on 40% of drives
JJ -- 131 series, 47 scores, 252 points; 1.92 points per series, scored on 36% of drives
Then if you don't count the games against Florida and Bama...
JJ - 117 series, 45 scores, 242 points; 2.07 points per series, scored on 38% of drives
Still impressive to see difference, but just wanted to be more fair and not count games against Tulane, LaTech, and ULL
Posted on 3/30/10 at 7:23 pm to TIsuGGER
Honestly your thread is very flawed, you have to factor in the run game contributing to scores, chuck had 18 rushing tds in that 2008 season... I wonder if that has anything to do with it... ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconrolleyes.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconrolleyes.gif)
Posted on 3/30/10 at 7:27 pm to TIsuGGER
I thought it was the JL haters that crowned their argument on stats?
good post tigger.![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
good post tigger.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
Posted on 3/30/10 at 8:06 pm to TIsuGGER
I'd like to see the Three & OUT stat.
it seems we always give eams the short field when JJ is in.
it seems we always give eams the short field when JJ is in.
Posted on 3/30/10 at 8:34 pm to TIsuGGER
quote:
TIsuGGER
Nice post. I like the idea and agree that of the two , JL probably has a higher ceiling for getting us wins next year...however- when using the "real" games that that easter bunny listed the difference in JL's points per series (2.08) is not a "statistically significant" difference to JJ's 1.74 using a 2 sample Ztest. This means that although the numbers do differ, we cannot say for sure that there is a "real" difference in true statistical terms.
Posted on 3/31/10 at 4:32 am to TIsuGGER
I cant believe this is even still being argued. The 2008 offensive line actually blocked, Lee would have noone within ten ft of him and still throw a pass right into the hands of the opposing cornerback. Do you even remember the alabama game in 2008? Lee threw 4 frickin interceptions...4, that is unforgettable. Lee lost that game singlehandedly. Also dont give me lee's 2009 stats, thats the dumbest thing i've ever heard, he came in for mop up duty and LA Tech(Completion % for that game?), any half assed quarterback can score points against the teams he faced
Posted on 3/31/10 at 7:17 am to TIsuGGER
I thought JJ threw a touchdown to TT before halftime against Ole Miss in '08
Posted on 3/31/10 at 10:22 am to TIsuGGER
Ding Ding
Excellent analysis
Excellent analysis
Posted on 3/31/10 at 10:41 am to TIsuGGER
i think the only fair way for these stats to determine a starter is to count the interceptions and fumbles that lead to touchdowns, take that number and subtract it from their total touchdowns. then use those percentages
Posted on 3/31/10 at 4:46 pm to TIsuGGER
you should subtract how many points each qb has given to the other opponent then you will have a better number to judge from.
I just dont think Lee should start the first game. rather have a close game and win then let lee give the other team pints.
I just dont think Lee should start the first game. rather have a close game and win then let lee give the other team pints.
This post was edited on 3/31/10 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 4/1/10 at 9:23 am to TIsuGGER
Are your stats accurate???
I'm not reading through the 11 pages to see if my post is German or not, but Jefferson scored a touchdown against Troy.
quote:
Jefferson
Troy - 4 series, = 0 points
I'm not reading through the 11 pages to see if my post is German or not, but Jefferson scored a touchdown against Troy.
This post was edited on 4/1/10 at 9:29 am
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