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The Official BCS Thread for October 18th: LSU ranked No. 9
Posted on 10/18/09 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 10/18/09 at 12:43 pm
HARRIS POLL - LSU #9
Coaches- LSU #10
BCS standings - LSU #9
Let’s try and keep all the BCS discussion in one thread if we can. Bets on the first person to claim it is too early to talk about this? Or the person who insists on making football not fun by saying LSU will lose 3 more games?
Virginia Tech’s loss was a good one as their tough OOC schedule could have caused problems for LSU. Likewise for Ohio State. Now LSU just needs either Iowa or Texas to lose and they likely control their own destiny. Here is a first guess at the BCS standings. I haven’t done any calculations or anything (Harris poll and computers not really out yet), just a best guess.
1. Florida. Win out and they are in obviously. I am not quite as high as most if Florida drops a game. Their schedule is relatively weak avoiding Ole Miss, Bama, and Auburn in the regular season. Their OOC schedule is terrible, with a mediocre FSU the only thing of note. Moreover, any loss is now is a bad loss (and a late loss). I think USC could definitely finish higher in the computers and I would bet 50/50 if it came down to those two.
2. Bama. Win out and they are in. Playing in the SECW and beating Va Tech OOC makes them more appealing than Florida (at least to the computers). I don’t think they can lose to LSU (and be left out of the SECCG) or lose the SECCG. But any other loss, and they probably get in over USC.
3. Texas. Win out and they are in. But Texas’ weak schedule doesn’t bode well at all if they lose a game. I would think most 1-loss BCS teams as well as undefeated Cincy might be in better shape.
4. Boise State. They may have hit a ceiling here. Their schedule will just get worse and their computer score potentially abysmal. They need Oregon to win out to have any shot. If Oregon becomes a National Title contender themselves, it could get interesting. The Human polls would likely have Boise higher, but Oregon would be higher in the computers. How is that for controversy if 1-loss Oregon plays over undefeated Boise for a NC?
5. Cincy. Well this will get interesting if they go undefeated and it comes down to them and a 1-loss BCS team. Cincy actually plays in the third best conference statistically and has a respectable OOC schedule. But their computer score is going to hurt them still and they dont play anyone close to a top-10 caliber opponent. 1-loss SEC and Pac10 teams get in over Cincy, but I am not sure about Texas or Big 10 schools.
6. Iowa. Win out and have Texas or both Bama and UF lose and they are in. Any loss would require a minor miracle to get them in I think. Iowa’s computer score is very good despite any top-level opponents. Not sure if they can keep it up.
7. USC. They play in the 2nd toughest conference, have 2 nice OOC road wins, lost early without their starting QB, and they have been the team perennially left out of the BCSCG. At 1-loss they are in good shape against any 1-loss team except the SEC teams. I think they even stand a good chance (50/50?) against 1-loss Florida and a decent chance against 1-loss Bama. The bad news is they lost to a Washington team that may finish with a losing record. That could weight them down like an anchor in the computers.
8. TCU. They are in a similar boat as Boise State, They play a harder overall schedule but don’t have a team like Oregon either. If they went undefeated, not sure they would jump any 1-loss teams.
9. LSU. With all of LSU’s problems, they still almost control their own destiny. Things don’t look quite as good as they did a few weeks ago for SEC teams, but LSU still plays all the big boys in the SEC (and maybe Florida twice). Their OOC schedule isn’t anything to write home about, but Washington aint bad and La Tech and ULL are better rent-a-wins than expected. I think LSU will be fine against any 1-loss team. USC would be an interesting argument, but I would think LSU finishes with a slightly better computer score. Also, if it came down to the two, Washington tanking down the stretch would probably be a good thing for LSU.
10. Miami. They play in a weak ACC, but play a good OOC schedule so they may do well in the computers. They still don’t control their destiny for the ACCCG (which would be a must). They probably get in over 1-loss Big10 teams and maybe Texas, not sure about USC though.
11. Oregon. I said before the season that they had a BCS friendly schedule and at 1-loss could be in very good shape. I like them over any 1-loss BCS school except maybe the SEC schools. Again, they probably finish above undefeated Boise in the computers, so that would be an interesting argument.
12. Ga Tech. Similar boat with Miami. Nice OOC schedule gives them hope, but they need to make the ACCCG.
13. Penn State. I think they would need a minor miracle with their relatively weak schedule. But I think we could see a repeat of 2007, with even 2-loss teams being in the race.
**I will update this as more polls and computers are released, but this is probably close. Also, I will verify some of the commentary by running some future computer poll simulations.
Coaches- LSU #10
BCS standings - LSU #9
Let’s try and keep all the BCS discussion in one thread if we can. Bets on the first person to claim it is too early to talk about this? Or the person who insists on making football not fun by saying LSU will lose 3 more games?
Virginia Tech’s loss was a good one as their tough OOC schedule could have caused problems for LSU. Likewise for Ohio State. Now LSU just needs either Iowa or Texas to lose and they likely control their own destiny. Here is a first guess at the BCS standings. I haven’t done any calculations or anything (Harris poll and computers not really out yet), just a best guess.
1. Florida. Win out and they are in obviously. I am not quite as high as most if Florida drops a game. Their schedule is relatively weak avoiding Ole Miss, Bama, and Auburn in the regular season. Their OOC schedule is terrible, with a mediocre FSU the only thing of note. Moreover, any loss is now is a bad loss (and a late loss). I think USC could definitely finish higher in the computers and I would bet 50/50 if it came down to those two.
2. Bama. Win out and they are in. Playing in the SECW and beating Va Tech OOC makes them more appealing than Florida (at least to the computers). I don’t think they can lose to LSU (and be left out of the SECCG) or lose the SECCG. But any other loss, and they probably get in over USC.
3. Texas. Win out and they are in. But Texas’ weak schedule doesn’t bode well at all if they lose a game. I would think most 1-loss BCS teams as well as undefeated Cincy might be in better shape.
4. Boise State. They may have hit a ceiling here. Their schedule will just get worse and their computer score potentially abysmal. They need Oregon to win out to have any shot. If Oregon becomes a National Title contender themselves, it could get interesting. The Human polls would likely have Boise higher, but Oregon would be higher in the computers. How is that for controversy if 1-loss Oregon plays over undefeated Boise for a NC?
5. Cincy. Well this will get interesting if they go undefeated and it comes down to them and a 1-loss BCS team. Cincy actually plays in the third best conference statistically and has a respectable OOC schedule. But their computer score is going to hurt them still and they dont play anyone close to a top-10 caliber opponent. 1-loss SEC and Pac10 teams get in over Cincy, but I am not sure about Texas or Big 10 schools.
6. Iowa. Win out and have Texas or both Bama and UF lose and they are in. Any loss would require a minor miracle to get them in I think. Iowa’s computer score is very good despite any top-level opponents. Not sure if they can keep it up.
7. USC. They play in the 2nd toughest conference, have 2 nice OOC road wins, lost early without their starting QB, and they have been the team perennially left out of the BCSCG. At 1-loss they are in good shape against any 1-loss team except the SEC teams. I think they even stand a good chance (50/50?) against 1-loss Florida and a decent chance against 1-loss Bama. The bad news is they lost to a Washington team that may finish with a losing record. That could weight them down like an anchor in the computers.
8. TCU. They are in a similar boat as Boise State, They play a harder overall schedule but don’t have a team like Oregon either. If they went undefeated, not sure they would jump any 1-loss teams.
9. LSU. With all of LSU’s problems, they still almost control their own destiny. Things don’t look quite as good as they did a few weeks ago for SEC teams, but LSU still plays all the big boys in the SEC (and maybe Florida twice). Their OOC schedule isn’t anything to write home about, but Washington aint bad and La Tech and ULL are better rent-a-wins than expected. I think LSU will be fine against any 1-loss team. USC would be an interesting argument, but I would think LSU finishes with a slightly better computer score. Also, if it came down to the two, Washington tanking down the stretch would probably be a good thing for LSU.
10. Miami. They play in a weak ACC, but play a good OOC schedule so they may do well in the computers. They still don’t control their destiny for the ACCCG (which would be a must). They probably get in over 1-loss Big10 teams and maybe Texas, not sure about USC though.
11. Oregon. I said before the season that they had a BCS friendly schedule and at 1-loss could be in very good shape. I like them over any 1-loss BCS school except maybe the SEC schools. Again, they probably finish above undefeated Boise in the computers, so that would be an interesting argument.
12. Ga Tech. Similar boat with Miami. Nice OOC schedule gives them hope, but they need to make the ACCCG.
13. Penn State. I think they would need a minor miracle with their relatively weak schedule. But I think we could see a repeat of 2007, with even 2-loss teams being in the race.
**I will update this as more polls and computers are released, but this is probably close. Also, I will verify some of the commentary by running some future computer poll simulations.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 12:47 pm to lsumatt
When does the Harris poll come out?
Posted on 10/18/09 at 12:48 pm to tigerjake
quote:
When does the Harris poll come out?
Usually around 6:00 pm, but it will be released at the same time as the BCS this week probably
Posted on 10/18/09 at 12:56 pm to lsumatt
Dude, you know LSU is gonna lose three more games right?
ETA: I am heretofore referring to a statement uttered by lsumatt in the third line of his introductory post. It was intended to be a dash of humor. Please do not take it seriously. Or maybe just read a little slower next time.
ETA: I am heretofore referring to a statement uttered by lsumatt in the third line of his introductory post. It was intended to be a dash of humor. Please do not take it seriously. Or maybe just read a little slower next time.
This post was edited on 10/18/09 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 10/18/09 at 1:14 pm to JackTMed
quote:Go post that shite in another thread!
Dude, you know LSU is gonna lose three more games right?
Posted on 10/18/09 at 1:18 pm to JackTMed
3 yeah right. No way we lose to Auburn or Ole Miss
Posted on 10/18/09 at 1:34 pm to lsumatt
Are they going to announce the BCS rankings on Fox like they do sometimes? Or is it just going to be online?
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:27 pm to Bread Orgeron
quote:
Are they going to announce the BCS rankings on Fox like they do sometimes? Or is it just going to be online?
good question, robbiesqp... local fox programming does not show a 3-6pm nfl game here in br, and nothing scheduled in cablecast, so if they were to show it like before, they would have to break in on something else, show it during a commercial break, etc. ... but it will be online, anyway... and I'm sure it will be covered in depth right here in this thread... lsumatt is all OVER stuff like this!... (and the saints score again... brees well over 300 yards, 4:10 left 3rd qtr)...
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:28 pm to lsumatt
How is USC ahead of LSU?
LSU Beat Washington.
USC Loss to Washington.
LSU Beat Washington.
USC Loss to Washington.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:30 pm to lsumatt
Thanks lsumatt. Good job as always.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:31 pm to Amocat1
quote:
LSU Beat Washington. USC Loss to Washington.
So that's it? LSU beat a team USC lost to, so LSU should automatically be higher? Really, you believe that?
USC and LSU are about even, and LSU probably passes them by then end of the season, but USC's wins over OSU, ND, and maybe Cal are better than any victory LSU has.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:37 pm to lsumatt
Good stuff again LSUMatt. I looke forward to these postings every week during the season.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:45 pm to Big Data
After we beat Auburn, Tulane and Bama, let's revisit this
Posted on 10/18/09 at 2:47 pm to BT4LSU
quote:
. Bets on the first person to claim it is too early to talk about this?
And we have a winner!!!!!
quote::
BT4LSU
quote:
After we beat Auburn, Tulane and Bama, let's revisit this
Why shouldn't we talk about it now?
Posted on 10/18/09 at 3:00 pm to lsumatt
Will LSU play Fri after Thanksgiving this year or Sat? Ala vs Aub is Fri the 27th on CBS at 1:30
Posted on 10/18/09 at 3:07 pm to mikenlsufan
quote:
Will LSU play Fri after Thanksgiving this year or Sat?
I'm pretty sure this year we have Arkansas on Saturday rather than Friday.
I just checked the schedule at LSUsports.net and it says Saturday, November 28th vs. Arkansas.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 3:14 pm to lsumatt
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