Subprime is over.

fair enough. IMO all of this mark to fantasy bullshite has obscured the real NPV of what's coming.

LINK

definitely. A few of us (mostly you) have been watching this for 18+ months. And I'd point out that even if they were able to refi at the teaser rate, THEY STILL CAN'T GET A LOAN FOR MORE THAN 80% LTV. Many of these people started out higher than that and haven't paid down a lick of principle, not to mention the people who have capitalized interest to worry about. And that all ignores the property value collapse that we've seen around the country.

Most people don't understand the difference between a recast and a reset either. It's one thing to have your ARM reset up (or down) 2-3%. It's completely different when that reset is coupled with a monthly payment recast to pay down principal, and you're stuck with another $500/month in payments. A lot of those recasts could come well before their contracted date if property values keep falling (likely) and they start hitting LTV limits. There is definitely plenty of pain left. Have fun with the 110B Wachovia Option-Arm portfolio WFC. Your purchase accounting shield runs out in 4 months too.

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or what other .gov measures get implemented.

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The fed & treasury went "all in" this year with TARP, TALF, PPIP, and the purchasing of T-bills.

If more $$ is needed, what options are left?
Who gives the fed and Treasury the authority to put Trillions of dollars on the line?

We're screwed. No nation has ever done what we are doing, so no one knows the outcome.

It seems obvious that taxes will have to be raised to pay off all of this debt, and that will be like spraying round-up on any "green shoots" of growth. If there's no growth for the next 2 decades, then how will the market react to that? Will it be like Japan's market has been the last 20 years?

TARP TALF and the PPIP are (for the most part) about stabilizing the institutions that made the loans, they're not doing much to effectively alter the problem this thread is referring to. The only thing left they can really do to effectively alter the future recast landscape (at least, its the only thing I can think of), is to force banks to do principal writedowns via bk judges. The tried that, and it was soundly defeated in the Senate. But you know how they are, I have no doubt that they'll "do something" again.

They initially said it would start in June. Of course, just yesterday they announced it would be up and running by July. I think they're well tuned to the fact that it isn't going to amount to shite at this point, so they're not really in a rush.

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What's changed since the last one?

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I didn't want to start a new thread for this, so I dug up the first one that I could find where posters were debating this topic.

Does this affect your outlook? If so, why? If not, why not?

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NEW YORK--U.S. foreclosure activity for May ebbed from April's record, but mortgages still failed at a staggering pace as President Barack Obama's rescue programs had not had time to fully take root, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

Foreclosure filings dipped 6% in the month but increased 18% from May 2008, marking the third highest month on record.

"There were almost one million foreclosure filings in a three-month period, and that's simply unprecedented," Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac in Irvine, California, said in an interview.

Temporary freezes on foreclosure activity ended in March. Failures of many seriously delinquent loans that were put on hold during those moratoria have been thrust back into the foreclosure cycle.

One in every 398 households with loans got a foreclosure filing in May. Filings, which include notices of default and auctions, were reported on 321,480 properties last month.

Stemming foreclosures is seen critical to bolstering home prices, consumer confidence and the recessionary U.S. economy.

Bank repossessions, known as real-estate owned or REOs, rose in May and should spike in coming months because the moratoria ended, RealtyTrac said.

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And a LINK

If I understand this correctly, one in every 398 households with loans received new foreclosure filings last month. Couple this with rising interest rates and higher unemployment and I can't see how there is not more mortgage pain ahead.

I'm not trying to single you out for having a different opinion, I want to hear what you have to say.

Does this mean I will be able to get a good deal when I buy next spring?