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Duck and Cover! NASA probe plunging down tonight 3/10
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:07 pm
A 1,300-Pound NASA Probe Will Make an Uncontrolled Plunge Through Earth’s Atmosphere Today
The other one is supposed to come down in 2030
Gizmodo link
quote:
A NASA probe tasked with gathering data on Earth’s radiation belts has run out of fuel and is set to reenter through the atmosphere on Tuesday.
NASA’s Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. ET on March 10, according to data provided by the U.S. Space Force. The space agency expects most of the spacecraft to burn up during its journey through the atmosphere, but some parts may survive the uncontrolled reentry. Although the risk of harm to anyone on Earth is low, it’s not exactly zero.
The other one is supposed to come down in 2030
Gizmodo link
10
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:14 pm to sqerty
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:17 pm to sqerty
quote:
Based on its trajectory, NASA estimates that the risk of injury for anyone on Earth is about 0.02%, or approximately 1 in 4,200. Those are very low odds indeed
1 in 4200 seems really high for the chance of getting killed by this.
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:21 pm to sqerty
quote:Thanks Obama.
The probe launched in August 2012
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:28 pm to sqerty
According to NASA it will enter our atmosphere in 17 minutes.
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:32 pm to sqerty
It was approved at some point before its 2012 launch to have this higher risk.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/03/nasa-approved-a-safety-waiver-for-this-weeks-reentry-of-van-allen-probe/
quote:
This reentry is notable because it poses a higher risk to the public than the US government typically allows. The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is still low, approximately 1 in 4,200, but it exceeds the government standard of a 1 in 10,000 chance of an uncontrolled reentry causing a casualty.
“Due to late-stage design changes, the potential risk of uncontrolled reentry increased,” a NASA spokesperson told Ars. “After taking into account the mission’s scientific benefits and the low risk of harm to anyone on Earth, NASA granted a waiver to address the non-compliance with the US Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices. Consistent with national policy, NASA notified the US Department of State about the exception.”
quote:
While NASA has exceeded its standards before, the US government is not a top offender when it comes to unmitigated reentry risks. China launched four heavy-lift Long March 5B rockets between 2020 and 2022, and left its massive core stages in orbit to fall back to Earth. The four abandoned rocket cores, each nearly 24 tons in mass, reentered the atmosphere uncontrolled. Two of them dropped wreckage on land—in the Ivory Coast and Borneo—but no injuries were reported.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/03/nasa-approved-a-safety-waiver-for-this-weeks-reentry-of-van-allen-probe/
This post was edited on 3/10/26 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:37 pm to sqerty
Read whole article… doesn’t say anything about where they expect entry into atmosphere. If they don’t know then just say it.
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:41 pm to sqerty
5 minutes…any guesses to landing spot?
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:43 pm to Bloodworth
Another article said this estimate was from yesterday and also had at the time a 24hour window of additional possibilities.
Not sure if anything more recent announced as they have gathered more data. Aerospace is estimating it at around 11:41pm eastern time. Estimate in western hemisphere was around equator (little above to a little below based on exact location).
Not sure if anything more recent announced as they have gathered more data. Aerospace is estimating it at around 11:41pm eastern time. Estimate in western hemisphere was around equator (little above to a little below based on exact location).
This post was edited on 3/10/26 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:44 pm to Marco Esquandolas
They know but won't say where.
Avoiding an unnecessary public panic
Avoiding an unnecessary public panic
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:53 pm to sqerty
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:56 pm to sqerty
I don't see anything. Mark me safe.
Posted on 3/10/26 at 6:56 pm to Marco Esquandolas
>Tehran
....and call it an act of GOD
....and call it an act of GOD
Posted on 3/11/26 at 6:10 pm to sqerty
It hit somewhere in the eastern pacific around 6:30am this morning.
I forgot to save what I read, but it didn’t have a lot of details.
I forgot to save what I read, but it didn’t have a lot of details.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 6:22 pm to dallastigers
quote:
“Due to late-stage design changes, the potential risk of uncontrolled reentry increased,”
Translation: We put a 20 lb ball of tool steel in the middle of it. That shite is definitely surviving re-entry.
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