Oil and gas baws - refining question

Bout Tree Fiddy

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10 days to 10 years. So average is just under 5 years I guess. Median is maybe a few weeks.

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I’m trying to figure out how your answer could ever be explained mathematically.

According to Grok:

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Here’s a breakdown of the typical process and estimated time from extraction to pump: 1. Extraction to Refinery (Transportation of Crude Oil)?Gulf of Mexico oil is often produced from offshore platforms and transported relatively quickly to onshore refineries, primarily along the U.S. Gulf Coast (Texas and Louisiana, where many major refineries like those in Houston, Port Arthur, or Lake Charles are located). This uses pipelines (common for closer platforms), barges, or short tanker trips.?This step usually takes days to a couple of weeks — often faster than imported oil, which might involve transoceanic shipping. 2. Refining Crude into Gasoline?At the refinery, crude oil undergoes distillation, cracking, reforming, blending, and other processes to produce gasoline and other products. The actual physical processing time through a refinery is typically days (refineries operate continuously, with crude moving through units in hours to a few days per batch). However, accounting for scheduling, storage, and throughput, the crude-to-finished gasoline stage often takes 1–2 weeks. 3. Post-Refining Distribution to Gas Stations?Finished gasoline is moved via pipelines to terminals, where it’s often blended with ethanol or additives, then trucked to retail stations. This distribution leg can take days to a few weeks, depending on location, inventory levels, and trucking logistics. Overall estimates from industry sources and analyses of the U.S. supply chain (including Gulf-sourced oil, which feeds many nearby Gulf Coast refineries) point to a full journey from wellhead/extraction to retail pump of roughly 2–4 weeks on average: • In efficient, low-inventory/high-demand scenarios, it can be as short as about 2 weeks. • In cases with delays (e.g., maintenance, high storage, or logistics issues), it can stretch to a month or more. Gulf of Mexico oil benefits from shorter transport times compared to overseas imports, so it tends toward the quicker end of that range for stations in the southern and central U.S. (though gasoline is fungible and mixed in pipelines/storage, so exact sourcing isn’t traceable to individual pumps). Note that this covers the post-extraction supply chain — the full project development from discovery to first production can take years, but that’s not part of turning already-produced oil into gasoline. Sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) describe the stages but don’t give a precise single timeline, while industry analyses and explanations (e.g., from fuel experts) commonly cite this 2–4 week range for the crude-to-pump process in the U.S. context.

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On the rig/platform I’m currently on, that sounds about right.

Let me guess, you're wondering how the price of gas jumps 60 cents in ten days.

They're not pricing the gas that's actually in the tank that you're pumping, they're pricing what it's going to cost them to fill the next tank. This ripples all the way back to when it gets pulled out of the ground, in essence.

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Let me guess, you're wondering how the price of gas jumps 60 cents in ten days.

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Pretty much, but more from the view point of, how does this mesh with the / principles of economics?

It seems that retail gas pricing is based not on economic principles, but other factors.

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I would assume this would vary based on where the oil is coming from… so consider that.

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Are you kidding?

If I told you next month that coffee beans were going to be 3x higher and hard to get would you just say oh well and pay the price then or would you go buy some coffee beans right now at a lower price since and ride through the wave?

If you were selling coffee beans would you just let them go for a normal price?

There are a lot of steps between oil out the ground and your tank. They plan more than 24hrs ahead for pricing.

Crude is bought in advance and there is a steady supply.

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Does the same mentality apply if coffee beans were going to be 59% lower?

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Without a doubt it does.

One thing to note is there is far less upside than downside. You can only reach 100% utilization, truly mid-90's so supply can only grow so much.

Whereas if you aren't making money you have near unlimited ability to cut supply.