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Started By
Message
Before you Bet on Bills vs. Broncos Here’s a Wild Stat
Posted on 1/17/26 at 10:40 am
Posted on 1/17/26 at 10:40 am
4
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:06 am to SingleMalt1973
If you put money on the Bills you are simply betting on Allen
I would absolutely stay away from putting money on any Bills game here on out.
1. If you bet with Buffalo you are betting on a team that is injured as frick with no WR room at all or run defense
2. If you bet against Buffalo you are betting against the best playoff QB
It to me is a team you want to stay away from on both sides of the line
I would absolutely stay away from putting money on any Bills game here on out.
1. If you bet with Buffalo you are betting on a team that is injured as frick with no WR room at all or run defense
2. If you bet against Buffalo you are betting against the best playoff QB
It to me is a team you want to stay away from on both sides of the line
This post was edited on 1/17/26 at 11:07 am
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:33 am to lsupride87
The Bills will have a matchup with a Broncos defense that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
The Bills receivers have not exactly been terrific against man coverage. Shakir has been above average, but is below league average in YPRR where each of Cooks and Coleman have their major weakness as well.
Meanwhile, this is a Broncos CB room with all 3 of Moss, Surtain, and McMillian as above average in both separation and all play, giving them the advantage and with no weak link.
Let’s discuss how this interacts with Josh Allen’s performance and injury and my overall view of this game relative to market. As we discussed last week, Allen’s injury could effect his ability to extend plays and create—where he is at his best.
And the result was Allen having one of his lowest career play extension games (0.7) while maintaining a near 50% quick pass rate and low ADOT. It took Allen his singular best career PFF Passing Grade for the Bills to eek by. And while Allen is all-world he did it in a way he never has before. That isn’t to say he can’t repeat it only that it was likely the 99th percentile outcomes and indexing on that one game is perhaps a bit misleading. The broader data would suggest this is a terrible matchup and Allen’s best ability to mitigate that— by creating and extending— is effectively off the table if he is going to be getting rid of the ball quickly and not looking to extend he play.
SirWinston will be on a variety of Broncos spread alternates bets, Bills unders, and Allen unders. Good luck to all who tail
The Bills receivers have not exactly been terrific against man coverage. Shakir has been above average, but is below league average in YPRR where each of Cooks and Coleman have their major weakness as well.
Meanwhile, this is a Broncos CB room with all 3 of Moss, Surtain, and McMillian as above average in both separation and all play, giving them the advantage and with no weak link.
Let’s discuss how this interacts with Josh Allen’s performance and injury and my overall view of this game relative to market. As we discussed last week, Allen’s injury could effect his ability to extend plays and create—where he is at his best.
And the result was Allen having one of his lowest career play extension games (0.7) while maintaining a near 50% quick pass rate and low ADOT. It took Allen his singular best career PFF Passing Grade for the Bills to eek by. And while Allen is all-world he did it in a way he never has before. That isn’t to say he can’t repeat it only that it was likely the 99th percentile outcomes and indexing on that one game is perhaps a bit misleading. The broader data would suggest this is a terrible matchup and Allen’s best ability to mitigate that— by creating and extending— is effectively off the table if he is going to be getting rid of the ball quickly and not looking to extend he play.
SirWinston will be on a variety of Broncos spread alternates bets, Bills unders, and Allen unders. Good luck to all who tail
This post was edited on 1/17/26 at 11:36 am
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:35 am to SirWinston
You pretty much said exactly what I said in just a ton of chat gpt words 
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:38 am to SirWinston
quote:
DIV Week Gameplan
Tails, Matchup Angles & SGPs
Judah Fortgang
Jan 16, 2026
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:44 am to UncleFestersLegs
Its so true
Posted on 1/17/26 at 11:57 am to SingleMalt1973
I’m sure no one, no one in particular at least, will make an arse out of himself in regards to this game.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 12:22 pm to SingleMalt1973
Of course this won't be the first time that Sean Payton and Sean McDermott have matched wits
They used to go toe to toe in the NFC South a good bit
They used to go toe to toe in the NFC South a good bit
Posted on 1/17/26 at 12:31 pm to LooseCannon22282
They played in the playoffs a year ago in Buffalo
Posted on 1/17/26 at 12:34 pm to SingleMalt1973
I’ll be rooting like hell for the Bills but I wouldn’t put YOUR money on them today.
No way he can carry them without being close to 100%.
I predict he doesn’t finish the game.
No way he can carry them without being close to 100%.
I predict he doesn’t finish the game.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 12:35 pm to SirWinston
quote:
SirWinston
Those are a lot of words
The Bills will utilize Kincaid, Knox, and Hawes a good bit
Posted on 1/17/26 at 1:59 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:Are you saying a limb is going to fall off?
I predict he doesn’t finish the game.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 2:01 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
No way he can carry them without being close to 100%.
He's the best for a reason. Don't doubt him.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:07 pm to saintsfan1977
Never betting against Josh
And Josh has played very well against Vance Joseph defenses
And Josh has played very well against Vance Joseph defenses
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:10 pm to VermilionTiger
quote:
The Bills will utilize Kincaid, Knox, and Hawes a good bit
I think some genuine upside with Samuel back. I’m not saying a huge game but I think he contributes
Ed Oliver could change the face of the defense though. When he’s impactful he’s a force
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:10 pm to lsupride87
quote:
If you bet against Buffalo you are betting against the best playoff QB
Buffalo might be injured but Denver is a paper tiger.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:10 pm to NoSaint
NFL doesn’t want Denver vs Texans
Follow the script
Bills ML
Follow the script
Bills ML
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:13 pm to Dire Wolf
Yeah kind of feel like it’s the Bills turn. NFL needs the Bills.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:17 pm to Allthatfades
Josh runs for 2 TDs and the Bills win. frick Sean.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 3:19 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
be rooting like hell for the Bills but I wouldn’t put YOUR money on them today.
Too late baw
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