Guess on how the Stock Market reacts

Up. Starting wars is a great way to boost the economy

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Starting wars is a great way to boost the economy

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What war started?

Up bigly unless China sees this as a green light to take Taiwan.

Up

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Guess on how the Stock Market reacts

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Likely... .

Buy Oil stocks

Since when did we start a war?

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Futures are up

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I'm not sure what futures you're looking at but the U.S. futures markets are closed.

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Up bigly unless China sees this as a green light to take Taiwan.

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China isn't quite ready for that, yet. Not sure they will be, not anytime in the near future anyway.

China has a LOT to lose if they move on Taiwan, and a lot of different first-world Western and European nations would support Taiwan in their defensive efforts. I've studied quite a few war game scenarios on this topic, and things look optimistic (if you will) for Taiwan if Chini moves on them. Their location is militarily strategic and they are capable of making one hell of a deadly defensive stand, especially with support from other nations.

In full disclosure, when i say optimistic*, I'm not saying Taiwan just mops the floor with China. Far from it. China would actually take them if the right players don't join Taiwan's defense campaign. I'm saying that the potential losses for China aren't in any way negligible, even if Taiwan stands completely alone in their defense.

I would caution oil stocks

Venezuela oil is heavy sour, tough to extract, and will take time to ramp up infrastructure. Years not months. Well beyond Trump's term and will not be reflected in gasoline prices anytime soon outside of futures moving lower on the news.

Light Sweet crude( what we mainly produce) is ideal for gasoline and other light byproducts. Heavy sour more for heavy byproducts generally.

It will help keep their oil from rogue countries.