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Started By
Message
How big of a swing we talking about with Fed's Powell speaking today
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:37 am
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:37 am
I'm interested in a few stocks today but feel should wait to buy after or during speech. Any guesses on how much we drop ? Or do you think we go up ? My bet : -300
5
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:45 am to FLObserver
-300 doesn’t mean anything anymore.
Assuming you’re referring to the DOW, that’s like a .60 percent move. Practically nothing.
If he doesn’t cut, then all markets will be down 2-4 percent. Thats my guess.
If he cuts .25 but doesn’t signal much regarding further cuts and talks a lot about inflation the markets still down. Maybe not as much.
If he cuts .25 and indicates future cuts, we fly.
I suppose there’s also a scenario where he doesn’t cut but hints at cuts in the future that avoids immediate market disaster. Bit I find this the least likely.
Assuming you’re referring to the DOW, that’s like a .60 percent move. Practically nothing.
If he doesn’t cut, then all markets will be down 2-4 percent. Thats my guess.
If he cuts .25 but doesn’t signal much regarding further cuts and talks a lot about inflation the markets still down. Maybe not as much.
If he cuts .25 and indicates future cuts, we fly.
I suppose there’s also a scenario where he doesn’t cut but hints at cuts in the future that avoids immediate market disaster. Bit I find this the least likely.
This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 5:51 am
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:51 am to FLObserver
Great day to set up crazy limit orders.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:04 am to beaverfever
Or get paid for cash secured puts and hopefully don’t get assigned (after the crash).
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:42 am to FLObserver
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:43 am to FLObserver
So key note is 9:00 AM central?
That’s when the action happens?
That’s when the action happens?
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:55 am to FLObserver
quote:Here' from CNBC this morning CNBC
Markets are expecting Powell to tee up a September rate cut. At each of his previous Jackson Hole speeches, starting in 2018, he indicated significant policy shifts. From pushing for quarterly cuts in that first speech to a pivotal switch in how it would view inflation in 2020 to last year’s nod towards an aggressive September move, markets have taken their cues from the chair’s keynote.
Wall Street commentary reflects similar expectations this time around, if in somewhat subtler terms.
“We do not expect Powell to decisively signal a September cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:03 am to bigjoe1
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:05 am to bayoubengals88
What? There won’t be cuts today
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:05 am to bayoubengals88
Powell indicates conditions ‘may warrant’ interest rate cuts as Fed proceeds ‘carefully’
Pop!
Pop!
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:06 am to bayoubengals88
I can’t think of any rationale that would lead Powell to cut based on his comments in the past. If he cut now but not in the past when data was more supportive, it’s a head scratcher
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:07 am to bayoubengals88
So far i missed on my prediction. 
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:08 am to SlidellCajun
He's late on action.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:09 am to BCreed1
Market seems happy right now.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:10 am to BCreed1
Oh wow a .25 cut signal and crying about tariffs. Who could have predicted that
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:13 am to VABuckeye
Dow is only 800 points away from its record in dec 2024
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:15 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Let's bring this bitch straight into a Santa Claus rally 
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:17 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:18 am to BCreed1
This guy is cracking me up
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:23 am to bayoubengals88
Oh he is now trying to correct the record on what he actually said.....
LOL
LOL
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