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JD Vance: We are seeing foreign policy develop that will change the country for the better
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:32 am
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:32 am
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This post was edited on 6/24/25 at 9:33 am
9
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:33 am to hawgfaninc
This is the way.
Minimize involvement in Old World feuds.
Minimize involvement in Old World feuds.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:34 am to hawgfaninc
Clinton: The US Embassy will move to Jerusalem
Bush: The US Embassy will move to Jerusalem
Obama: The US Embassy will move to Jerusalem
Trump: I have moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem
Bush: Israel cannot make peace with any more Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Obama: Israel cannot make peace with any more Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Trump: I have brokered peace deals between Israel and four Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Clinton: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Bush: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Obama: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Biden: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Trump: I have destroyed Iran’s nuclear weapons
Bush: The US Embassy will move to Jerusalem
Obama: The US Embassy will move to Jerusalem
Trump: I have moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem
Bush: Israel cannot make peace with any more Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Obama: Israel cannot make peace with any more Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Trump: I have brokered peace deals between Israel and four Arab nations without a Palestinian state
Clinton: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Bush: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Obama: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Biden: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons
Trump: I have destroyed Iran’s nuclear weapons
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:36 am to Wellborn
GOAT president
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:39 am to hawgfaninc
Does this mean we quit the strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan / China?
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:42 am to SallysHuman
quote:
Does this mean we quit the strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan / China?
We've created a serious strategic vulnerability by offshoring advanced semiconductor fabrication to asia.
We're stuck deterring action there until we can reshore that capability. Taiwan is very reluctant to give up their silicon shield.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:43 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:44 am to Wellborn
This is actually a great illustration of the difference between Trump and his immediate predecessors. Well done. 
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:11 am to The Baker
quote:It's really not at all simple, yet, at the same time, it is.
We're stuck deterring action there until we can reshore that capability. Taiwan is very reluctant to give up their silicon shield.
Everything that is built today uses some form of semiconductor technology. If you want to make those in the US, you need (a) an ultra clean fabrication facility loaded with extremely expensive lithography machines and (b) you need another facility that produces the wafers these semiconductors and sensors are printed to. This requires rare earth materials. And finally, (c) you also need to own the patent designs.
Everything engineered takes years to design, test theories, hand build prototypes, and continue testing and evolving until a final design is approved, then you have to build out the tooling to match the design. More years. Typically, it takes 4-7 years for many products to ever start being marketed. That means products are designed using the semiconductors, processors and sensors already designed and tooled when they start the design process. They can't turn around and start using different designs with different power and pin out requirements on the semiconductors. This is why the chip shortage prevented many automobiles from being sold and stored on lots. The semiconductors weren't available and the owner of the patents wasn't sharing the designs with other companies, plus, anyone wanting to make them would have to tool up to make them. That takes years and tens of billion$ of dollars in investment.
The only way the US can take control of this is to invest heavily in companies that have a solid long-term plan, a network of great sales partners, a training program so good that design engineers see the value in switching products for better, faster, smaller and less energy reliant products. That would take a decade to get to the point where the US produces 10% of the semiconductors, sensors and processors for it's manufacturing requirements, but it would grow exponentially from there as more and more engineers adopt new designs and in 20 years the US could be a dominant player in this industry, but it will only happen if there's vision that makes it happen. Semiconductor production is a long-term play that the US ignored and allowed to be offshored to keep costs down. We need to bring it back but it will take commitment and government/industry partnership if we're going to compete against Taiwan, South Korea and China.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:17 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
brick by brick
Collective groan from eastern Tennessee
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:18 am to hawgfaninc
This is what I voted for.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:27 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
JD Vance: We are seeing foreign policy develop that will change the country for the better
I don't know if it is actually for the better but it is more aligned with the ground truth of modern geopolitics. The US simply has too many soft power competitors trying to sway nations below the superpower cut line. If the US wants something and cannot accept not having what they want, force is going to be required now. They can't just sanction and pull back money and programs to get desired effects. These countries will align with China's soft power teat instead. The problem with this approach is that it is more prone to getting trapped in Vietnam and Afghanistan War type of conflicts. The US is bad about falling into these traps and slow to admit the lost cause and retreat because it would damage their own self-perception about their international prestige.
I have low confidence that this ceasefire is maintained for long and certainly do not expect Trump to leave office with a pathway or realization of peace between Iran and Israel. This is just a tactical retreat by Iran to regain their footing and allow Russia and China to steadily rebuild their military and uranium enrichment capacity. At best, Trump has bought the US the rest of his presidency without Iranian nuclear program emergencies. They still have their 60% enriched uranium and it doesn't take nearly as long to go from 60 to 90% (weapon-grade) as it does to get the first 20-30%. This problem will emerge again. Hell, I've heard recently that Iran may have an even deeper facility/bunker built into a mountain that we do not possess the ability to touch with bunker busters at this time. The likelihood that is about to be their next enrichment site is pretty damn high.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:32 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
It's really not at all simple, yet, at the same time, it is.
Indeed. I would say what needs to be done is known, but it will be extremely painful.
quote:
Everything that is built today uses some form of semiconductor technology. If you want to make those in the US, you need (a) an ultra clean fabrication facility loaded with extremely expensive lithography machines and (b) you need another facility that produces the wafers these semiconductors and sensors are printed to. This requires rare earth materials. And finally, (c) you also need to own the patent designs.
Everything engineered takes years to design, test theories, hand build prototypes, and continue testing and evolving until a final design is approved, then you have to build out the tooling to match the design. More years. Typically, it takes 4-7 years for many products to ever start being marketed. That means products are designed using the semiconductors, processors and sensors already designed and tooled when they start the design process. They can't turn around and start using different designs with different power and pin out requirements on the semiconductors. This is why the chip shortage prevented many automobiles from being sold and stored on lots. The semiconductors weren't available and the owner of the patents wasn't sharing the designs with other companies, plus, anyone wanting to make them would have to tool up to make them. That takes years and tens of billion$ of dollars in investment.
The only way the US can take control of this is to invest heavily in companies that have a solid long-term plan, a network of great sales partners, a training program so good that design engineers see the value in switching products for better, faster, smaller and less energy reliant products. That would take a decade to get to the point where the US produces 10% of the semiconductors, sensors and processors for it's manufacturing requirements, but it would grow exponentially from there as more and more engineers adopt new designs and in 20 years the US could be a dominant player in this industry, but it will only happen if there's vision that makes it happen. Semiconductor production is a long-term play that the US ignored and allowed to be offshored to keep costs down. We need to bring it back but it will take commitment and government/industry partnership if we're going to compete against Taiwan, South Korea and China.
All the above.
The only leverage point I can find to tilt things in our favor sooner, is to aggressively persuade ASML to come to the US. Is there a way to pry them from the Dutch with a massive sweetheart deal they can't refuse? I.e. No taxes, no oversight, massive government investment, etc...
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:21 am to The Baker
AMSL has a dozen facilities in the US but if our country doesn't settle the frick down where the government is working on real economic issues and infrastructure instead of constantly squabbling over social issues, why would any company with a global 90% market share move to the US where you never know when Dems will be in charge and frick up companies like AMSL with their social bs.
Canon would love to supplant AMSL and has the technology to do so, but they're a Japanese company and I don't think the government of Japan would approve of a move like that, anyway.
OnSemi would be a good candidate for US expansion.
Canon would love to supplant AMSL and has the technology to do so, but they're a Japanese company and I don't think the government of Japan would approve of a move like that, anyway.
OnSemi would be a good candidate for US expansion.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:24 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
The problem with this approach is that it is more prone to getting trapped in Vietnam and Afghanistan War type of conflicts.
They’ll never be another Vietnam type war for the US - Air & Sea maybe
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:25 am to hawgfaninc
Panicans are getting a beat down from JD also 
Rough week so far for them
Rough week so far for them
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:43 am to SallysHuman
Why?
It's worked so far.
It's worked so far.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:44 am to goatmilker
quote:
Why? It's worked so far.
Because of what Vance said regarding making clear statements on policy... ??
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:49 am to hawgfaninc
It’s true. Long term consequences remain to be seen, but this Iran stuff was pretty much perfect.
There’s a lot of other discussion to be had regarding broader geopolitical implications here, but they are all positive for the U.S. IMO.
There’s a lot of other discussion to be had regarding broader geopolitical implications here, but they are all positive for the U.S. IMO.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 11:51 am to SallysHuman
Strategic ambiguity is the clear policy on Taiwan.
China has to be able to say Taiwan is theirs and we have to be able to get semiconductors.
As long as that balance is maintained, there will be no issue with Taiwan.
China has to be able to say Taiwan is theirs and we have to be able to get semiconductors.
As long as that balance is maintained, there will be no issue with Taiwan.
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