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Started By
Message
Jerome Powell coming to Congress today
Posted on 6/24/25 at 7:35 am
Posted on 6/24/25 at 7:35 am
I’m sure it’ll be another light news days today 
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5
Posted on 6/24/25 at 7:43 am to RebelExpress38
I want to know why he went from “I’m data dependent” to “I’m waiting to confirm my own assumptions on future data”.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 7:48 am to RebelExpress38
Too Late said hes forward thinking cause Tariffs
Yet he uses old data to make decisions
Kinda reminds me of when he said inflafion was transitory
Yet he uses old data to make decisions
Kinda reminds me of when he said inflafion was transitory
Posted on 6/24/25 at 9:51 am to SDVTiger
Powell made Talib and Trump agree.......dude is a peacemaker.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:03 am to BHTiger
If we have to finance debt at 100 basis points higher than we otherwise could (if the fed lowered rates), how is that looking out for inflation? They know how much monetary inflation we’re going to see from that added debt.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:11 am to beaverfever
quote:Cause he looks for anything possible to support his already made up mind. Data good for him, great he uses it......data bad for his position, no problem, he will still do what he wants because he thinks the data in the future will support him.
I want to know why he went from “I’m data dependent” to “I’m waiting to confirm my own assumptions on future data”.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 10:14 am to tigerfoot
Nm
This post was edited on 6/24/25 at 10:28 am
Posted on 6/24/25 at 12:13 pm to beaverfever
I’m honestly not sure they’re thinking about this.
They’re trying to slow velocity of money but it only works with actual market effects in play.
We aren’t going to cut our debt just because it gets more expensive. We’ve proven that.
They’re trying to slow velocity of money but it only works with actual market effects in play.
We aren’t going to cut our debt just because it gets more expensive. We’ve proven that.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 12:45 pm to RebelExpress38
Should be:
R* + inflation reading(s) = ~3.50%
Taylor Rule(s) = ~3.50%
Instead:
R* + ATSIX "Expectations" = ~4.50%
Add to that Gundlach's view of Wu and Xia's ‘What was the effect of quantitative easing?’ whereas every $200B of addition and subtraction via quantitative easing and quantitative tightening is equivalent to about another 25bps. About 2.2T in roll-off so that's another 275bps in shadow Fed Funds rate hikes.
So we should probably be closer to 3.50% but he has us effectively running closer to 7.25%?
R* + inflation reading(s) = ~3.50%
Taylor Rule(s) = ~3.50%
Instead:
R* + ATSIX "Expectations" = ~4.50%
Add to that Gundlach's view of Wu and Xia's ‘What was the effect of quantitative easing?’ whereas every $200B of addition and subtraction via quantitative easing and quantitative tightening is equivalent to about another 25bps. About 2.2T in roll-off so that's another 275bps in shadow Fed Funds rate hikes.
So we should probably be closer to 3.50% but he has us effectively running closer to 7.25%?
Posted on 6/24/25 at 1:24 pm to Hand
All because his base case is stagflation (which is exceptionally rare).
Posted on 6/24/25 at 2:23 pm to SDVTiger
I think this is the one thing you and I agree on.
Drop it a little in July. See where June and July data comes in at, then drop more in September if data looks good.
Drop it a little in July. See where June and July data comes in at, then drop more in September if data looks good.
Posted on 6/24/25 at 3:32 pm to Hand
quote:
Should be:
R* + inflation reading(s) = ~3.50%
Taylor Rule(s) = ~3.50%
Instead:
R* + ATSIX "Expectations" = ~4.50%
Add to that Gundlach's view of Wu and Xia's ‘What was the effect of quantitative easing?’ whereas every $200B of addition and subtraction via quantitative easing and quantitative tightening is equivalent to about another 25bps. About 2.2T in roll-off so that's another 275bps in shadow Fed Funds rate hikes.
So we should probably be closer to 3.50% but he has us effectively running closer to 7.25%?
Posted on 6/25/25 at 2:33 pm to RebelExpress38
Do Congressional Hearings ever resolve anything other than give politicians soundbites to use?
Posted on 6/25/25 at 2:51 pm to Auburn80
quote:
Do Congressional Hearings ever resolve anything other than give politicians soundbites to use?
No.
Posted on 6/25/25 at 3:42 pm to RebelExpress38
Blah blah blah … blah blah blah …
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