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Started By
Message
Anybody wanna weigh in on the state of the markets right now?
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:58 am
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:58 am
Seems like its held up pretty well under tons of global uncertainty. Got some dry powder in case we dump
7
Posted on 6/23/25 at 11:24 am to LChama
I'm no expert so take this with a grain of salt...
I expect at least a small, maybe five percent, correction in the next month. The markets have been booming since the tariff issue ended and I don't think it'll last. I think institutional traders will take their profits and a small international event will be the catalyst (or pretext) for doing so.
I expect at least a small, maybe five percent, correction in the next month. The markets have been booming since the tariff issue ended and I don't think it'll last. I think institutional traders will take their profits and a small international event will be the catalyst (or pretext) for doing so.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 11:42 am to LChama
Rates will be cut in the latter half of the year. Tariff deals will be made or a steady-state will be achieved that will not destroy the economy. The Iran situation is overblown by hypersensitive forecasters which will impact the market in the short term but will be fine in the long term. New highs by the end of the year.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 11:50 am to Mr Happy
quote:
The markets have been booming since the tariff issue ended and I don't think it'll last
Let's see what happens with the reciprocal tariff expiration on July 9th for everyone other than China. Feels like it may get extended considering the recent developments, but I've still been waiting for this update to see how things are impacted.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 11:59 am to LChama
Who knows what actually happen with tariffs.
Stocks in general are expensive (how many bull markets do you know that start from a base of 24X?)
Oil will very likely settle back in much lower.
Stocks in general are expensive (how many bull markets do you know that start from a base of 24X?)
Oil will very likely settle back in much lower.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:22 pm to RoyalWe
quote:
Rates will be cut in the latter half of the year. Tariff deals will be made or a steady-state will be achieved that will not destroy the economy. The Iran situation is overblown by hypersensitive forecasters which will impact the market in the short term but will be fine in the long term. New highs by the end of the year.
Agree. I'm accumulating some cash in cash we get some big swings in the short term, but l'm betting on Trump.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:31 pm to RoyalWe
Why is the iran situation having such a minimal affect? Seems like unrest, uncertainty of boots on ground, oil, chinas oil supply being jeopardized, uncertainty of dirty bomb capabilities… would all be adding to market chaos… if based on how it has reacted in previous years
This post was edited on 6/23/25 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:46 pm to LChama
Trump ordered oil sector to keep prices down, he's watching. Emphasized that supply has not been affected so don't gouge. Seems to be working as priced just dipped below $70 briefly.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:46 pm to LChama
There is no appetite for boots on the ground. The only way Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz is with mines or missiles fired from shore and the shelf life of either of those will be measured in minutes. Just really think this crap is going to be contained.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:48 pm to bigjoe1
And Iran's retaliation will just be for show. Trump is fine with letting them save face, as long as they don't harm one hair on an innocent head.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 12:59 pm to LChama
What everyone else said. Iran is a toothless amoeba. Boots on the ground won’t happen.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:00 pm to SmackoverHawg
And that’s exactly what happened. A nothing burger, zero casualties and US was made aware before strike. We did operation dindu nothin and they reciprocated
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:03 pm to LChama
Sometimes up. Sometimes down.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:10 pm to LChama
Today is completely not understandable to me.
Iran has now fired missiles towards the US bases and Qatar and Iraq! Putting tens of thousands of US troops at risk!
Article
Putin slammed the U.S. for bombing Iran.
Article
You'd expect extreme volatility today, yet the VIX is declining and the Dow's up 306 currently? Can't understand it.
Iran has now fired missiles towards the US bases and Qatar and Iraq! Putting tens of thousands of US troops at risk!
Article
Putin slammed the U.S. for bombing Iran.
Article
You'd expect extreme volatility today, yet the VIX is declining and the Dow's up 306 currently? Can't understand it.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:14 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:Nothing to do with Trump. There's no reason for oil to have gone up in the first place. I predict it settles back into the high 50s - if not lower - within weeks.
Trump ordered oil sector to keep prices down, he's watching. Emphasized that supply has not been affected so don't gouge. Seems to be working as priced just dipped below $70 briefly.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:14 pm to Nole Man
At this point, it's like everything is being staged to allow the players to save face.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:17 pm to Nole Man
quote:
Can't understand it.
You seem to be working of a "take the past and project it indefinitely into the future" outlook on things. That's a bad way to invest.
Nothing is happening that would be bad for US stocks or bullish for oil. Might be surprising, but it's true.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:31 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
You seem to be working of a "take the past and project it indefinitely into the future" outlook on things. That's a bad way to invest.
Nothing is happening that would be bad for US stocks or bullish for oil. Might be surprising, but it's true.
Uh, I'd think what's happening in the Middle East right now would qualify. Don't know about you, but I'm scared shitless about further US involvement, Russia's possible assistance to Iran, etc.
But..
Regardless, I DCA ever week into a number of ETFs in my non-retirement account and have been doing so for years despite world events. I did roll most of my 401k earlier in the year into some conservative funds because I plan to start drawing soon and didn't want to lose huge chunks. Have had that happen several times over the years and you can't recover at this age. That's turned out to be a prudent move for me.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:47 pm to Nole Man
quote:Well, good thing the markets better understand facts instead of irrational fears. Perhaps this could be a good time for you to interrogate your priors?
Uh, I'd think what's happening in the Middle East right now would qualify. Don't know about you, but I'm scared shitless about further US involvement, Russia's possible assistance to Iran, etc.
quote:I can quasi-support this given how expensive equities are. But market timing ain't a great strategy in general.
Regardless, I DCA ever week into a number of ETFs in my non-retirement account and have been doing so for years despite world events. I did roll most of my 401k earlier in the year into some conservative funds because I plan to start drawing soon and didn't want to lose huge chunks. Have had that happen several times over the years and you can't recover at this age. That's turned out to be a prudent move for me.
Posted on 6/23/25 at 5:23 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
At this point, it's like everything is being staged to allow the players to save face.
Yah think?
Thanks Iran!
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday afternoon.
Markets seem to think so.
After hours
UVIX/$25.99/-1.2803/(-4.69%)
pre market hours active
Pre-market
Yep. Dropping even more this morning.
$24.90/-2.37/(-8.69%) As of Jun-24-20258:20:42AM ET
This post was edited on 6/24/25 at 7:23 am
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