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College Baseball Top 8 National Seed Picture
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:19 am
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:19 am
Here's a list of LSU's main competition in a race for a top 8 national seed. I'll keep up with the results of each the remainder of the season, and try to update RPI and SOS after the weekend, and then after conference tournament.
Note:
- list isn't in any particular order
- RPI/SOS comes from Warren Nolan,
- all quad records come from Warren Nolan
GEORGIA
42-14 (18-12)
RPI -1
SOS- 5
Q1- 11-10
Q2- 6-3
Q3- 13-1
Q4- 12-0
vs aTm (won 2/3)
SECT Wednesday vs OU/Kentucky winner
AUBURN
38-17 (17-13)
RPI- 2
SOS- 1
Q1- 15-12
Q2- 5-1
Q3- 7-1
Q4- 11-3
At Ole Miss (Won 1/3)
SecT Wednesday vs Miss St/aTm winner
VANDERBILT
39-16(19-11)
RPI- 3
SOS- 2
Q1- 15-14
Q2- 8-1
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 9-1
Vs Kentucky (Swept UK)
SecT Thursday vs OU/Kentucky/UGA winners
TEXAS
42-11 (22-8)
RPI- 4
SOS- 15
Q1- 17-10
Q2- 5-0
Q3- 9-0
Q4- 11-1
At Oklahoma (Won 2/3)
SecT Thursday vs Bama/Mizzou/Tennessee winners
ARKANSAS
43-12 (20-10)
RPI- 5
SOS- 13
Q1- 14-9
Q2- 1-0
Q3- 7-2
Q4- 21-1
Vs Tennessee (won 2/3)
SecT Friday vs Florida/SC/Ole Miss winners
OREGON ST
41-12-1 (0-0)
RPI- 6
SOS- 40
Q1- 10-9
Q2- 10-2-1
Q3- 7-1
Q4- 14-0
Vs Long Beach St (swept LBSt)
Season Over
LSU
42-13 (19-11)
RPI- 8
SOS- 33
Q1- 13-10
Q2- 7-1
Q3- 3-1
Q4- 19-1
At South Carolina (won 2/3)
SecT Friday vs Miss St/aTm/Auburn winners
FLORIDA STATE
37-13 (17-10)
RPI- 14
SOS- 29
Q1- 13-11
Q2- 3-1
Q3- 6-1
Q4- 15-0
Vs UNC (Lost 2/3)
ACCT Friday vs pitt/Louisville/Duke winners
UCLA
39-15 (22-8)
RPI - 15
SOS- - 23
Q1- 3-7
Q2- 12-1
Q3- 16-5
Q4- 8-2
Vs Northwestern (won 2/3)
Big10 T - Wed vs Illinois
Thur vs Michigan
NORTH CAROLINA
39-12 (18-11)
RPI- 7
SOS- 31
Q1- 11-5
Q2-12-7
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 9-0
At FSU (Won 2/3)
AccT Friday vs BC/Notre Dame/Virginia winners
COASTAL CAROLINA
44-11 (26-4)
RPI- 11
SOS- 71
Q1- 4-6
Q2- 10-3
Q3- 13-0
Q4- 17-2
At Old Dominion (Swept ODU)
SunBelt T - Wed vs Arky St/GA Southern winner
CLEMSON
41-15 (18-12)
RPI- 10
SOS- 18
Q1- 10-10
Q2- 13-5
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 11-0
At Pitt (Swept Pitt)
ACCT Wednesday vs VT/Stanford winner
OREGON
41-13 (22-8)
RPI - 12
SOS- 35
Q1- 9-1
Q2- 3-0
Q3- 22-9
Q4- 7-3
At Iowa (Swept Iowa)
Big10 T - Thur vs Mich St
Fri vs Nebraska
Note:
- list isn't in any particular order
- RPI/SOS comes from Warren Nolan,
- all quad records come from Warren Nolan
GEORGIA
42-14 (18-12)
RPI -1
SOS- 5
Q1- 11-10
Q2- 6-3
Q3- 13-1
Q4- 12-0
vs aTm (won 2/3)
SECT Wednesday vs OU/Kentucky winner
AUBURN
38-17 (17-13)
RPI- 2
SOS- 1
Q1- 15-12
Q2- 5-1
Q3- 7-1
Q4- 11-3
At Ole Miss (Won 1/3)
SecT Wednesday vs Miss St/aTm winner
VANDERBILT
39-16(19-11)
RPI- 3
SOS- 2
Q1- 15-14
Q2- 8-1
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 9-1
Vs Kentucky (Swept UK)
SecT Thursday vs OU/Kentucky/UGA winners
TEXAS
42-11 (22-8)
RPI- 4
SOS- 15
Q1- 17-10
Q2- 5-0
Q3- 9-0
Q4- 11-1
At Oklahoma (Won 2/3)
SecT Thursday vs Bama/Mizzou/Tennessee winners
ARKANSAS
43-12 (20-10)
RPI- 5
SOS- 13
Q1- 14-9
Q2- 1-0
Q3- 7-2
Q4- 21-1
Vs Tennessee (won 2/3)
SecT Friday vs Florida/SC/Ole Miss winners
OREGON ST
41-12-1 (0-0)
RPI- 6
SOS- 40
Q1- 10-9
Q2- 10-2-1
Q3- 7-1
Q4- 14-0
Vs Long Beach St (swept LBSt)
Season Over
LSU
42-13 (19-11)
RPI- 8
SOS- 33
Q1- 13-10
Q2- 7-1
Q3- 3-1
Q4- 19-1
At South Carolina (won 2/3)
SecT Friday vs Miss St/aTm/Auburn winners
FLORIDA STATE
37-13 (17-10)
RPI- 14
SOS- 29
Q1- 13-11
Q2- 3-1
Q3- 6-1
Q4- 15-0
Vs UNC (Lost 2/3)
ACCT Friday vs pitt/Louisville/Duke winners
UCLA
39-15 (22-8)
RPI - 15
SOS- - 23
Q1- 3-7
Q2- 12-1
Q3- 16-5
Q4- 8-2
Vs Northwestern (won 2/3)
Big10 T - Wed vs Illinois
Thur vs Michigan
NORTH CAROLINA
39-12 (18-11)
RPI- 7
SOS- 31
Q1- 11-5
Q2-12-7
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 9-0
At FSU (Won 2/3)
AccT Friday vs BC/Notre Dame/Virginia winners
COASTAL CAROLINA
44-11 (26-4)
RPI- 11
SOS- 71
Q1- 4-6
Q2- 10-3
Q3- 13-0
Q4- 17-2
At Old Dominion (Swept ODU)
SunBelt T - Wed vs Arky St/GA Southern winner
CLEMSON
41-15 (18-12)
RPI- 10
SOS- 18
Q1- 10-10
Q2- 13-5
Q3- 7-0
Q4- 11-0
At Pitt (Swept Pitt)
ACCT Wednesday vs VT/Stanford winner
OREGON
41-13 (22-8)
RPI - 12
SOS- 35
Q1- 9-1
Q2- 3-0
Q3- 22-9
Q4- 7-3
At Iowa (Swept Iowa)
Big10 T - Thur vs Mich St
Fri vs Nebraska
This post was edited on 5/18/25 at 8:49 am
24
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:19 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Bottom line -
LSU is in a very good spot for a top 8. I think taking 2 at South Carolina should lock it up, assuming they don't throw a bone to the west coast and/or max out at a certain number of SEC teams.
Two huge series this weekend between FSU/UNC and Arkansas/Tennessee.
For west coast, Oregon St doesn't have the quad 1 record to justify putting them in the top 8. Same can be said for UCLA. Coastal's SOS leaves them out of the conversation for top 8.
So of 13 teams listed, 3 of them are out, if this will be done fairly. Clemson probably has to go on a big run in the ACC tournament to have a chance. If FSU can take 2/3 from UNC that would put FSU squarely in and leave UNC on the outside. Arkansas can also ruin any hope Tennessee has of top 8 by taking the series.
LSU is in a very good spot for a top 8. I think taking 2 at South Carolina should lock it up, assuming they don't throw a bone to the west coast and/or max out at a certain number of SEC teams.
Two huge series this weekend between FSU/UNC and Arkansas/Tennessee.
For west coast, Oregon St doesn't have the quad 1 record to justify putting them in the top 8. Same can be said for UCLA. Coastal's SOS leaves them out of the conversation for top 8.
So of 13 teams listed, 3 of them are out, if this will be done fairly. Clemson probably has to go on a big run in the ACC tournament to have a chance. If FSU can take 2/3 from UNC that would put FSU squarely in and leave UNC on the outside. Arkansas can also ruin any hope Tennessee has of top 8 by taking the series.
This post was edited on 5/12/25 at 6:25 am
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:28 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Need to win 2 of 3 against Carolina to lock it up
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:35 am to Hold That Tiger 10
LSU needs to sweep SC…
That’s all we can control!
I think 2 gets us a top 8 seed, and a sweep virtually ensures it.
That’s all we can control!
I think 2 gets us a top 8 seed, and a sweep virtually ensures it.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:37 am to saturncube21
I honestly believe LSU already has it locked up. They will take at least 2 at South Carolina
Posted on 5/12/25 at 6:39 am to Hold That Tiger 10
If LSU wins 2/3 against South Carolina then we secure a top 8 seed.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:11 am to lsuson
quote:
I honestly believe LSU already has it locked up
If you assume
quote:
They will take at least 2 at South Carolina
Then yes, it's most likely locked up. When you stack everybody else up, and consider some of them play each other, we would have to royally screw up not to be ranked in the top 8. Either that or that committee puts a clearly inferior resume ahead of us simply because they play baseball near the Pacific Ocean.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:12 am to Bacon84
quote:
LSU needs to sweep SC
Going on the road and sweeping any SEC team (except Mizzou, unless you are aTm) should never be expected. Plus, we don't NEED to sweep them. We NEED to take 1, and we SHOULD take 2.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:21 am to Bacon84
quote:more like 1 could get it and 2 ensures it.
I think 2 gets us a top 8 seed, and a sweep virtually ensures it.
We are not on the bubble of a top 8 seed right now at all. Lose series to usc and it could get iffy but today we are a national #1-4 seed at worst
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:25 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
but today we are a national #1-4 seed at worst
Maybe. Texas, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, FSU are all who I would consider safely in right now. Those 6 could be arranged many different ways, depending on what the committee wants to lean on. Vandy could join this group this weekend. Everybody in that group would have to play themselves out of it, while somebody else plays themselves in. UNC, Tennessee, Clemson being prime candidates.
This post was edited on 5/12/25 at 7:49 am
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:31 am to Hold That Tiger 10
LSU is getting a top 8 spot barring a total collapse at USCe
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:51 am to geauxbrown
quote:
LSU is getting a top 8 spot barring a total collapse at USCe
I'd say LSU has a better chance of being the #1 overall seed currently than being left out. Some crazy stuff can happen though. Out of everybody listed, Texas is the only team who should confidently feel like they can't even play themselves out of the top 8.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:56 am to Hold That Tiger 10
The argument against Texas getting a top 8 seed would be since losing their ace they have been swept and lost a home series. So let’s say OU sweeps or just wins the series, then you have a Texas team in spiral and that ace isn’t coming back. They could be looked at differently based on 9 games without their ace. It would be a bit wild to see it happen to Texas especially even if they only win 1 they should still be sec champs just based on arky needing a sweep vs a desperate Vols team to catch them. I could see the argument though with 3 series losses in a row that Texas has ran out of gas. I don’t think it’s enough to drop them from 1 to 8 but who knows.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:03 am to Big4SALTbro
Texas is already at 20, and you have to expect them to pick up at least 1-2 more along the way. They likely win the SEC. You could make the same argument for Arkansas losing a bunch of series late, just not with the injury. When you stack resumes Texas will be in the top 8 regardless. Now they could be bumped from 1 to maybe 5-8, but I don't see them dropping out completely.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:13 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Just for the record that series at USC will count as Q2 games
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:15 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Can’t see the committee giving the SEC 6 super hosts even though it would be deserved. Will be 5 with 2 ACC schools and Oregon State. Have to have a west coast team. Oregon and UCLA are jokes.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:21 am to ell_13
What's the most the SEC has ever gotten?
Comparing those SEC teams resumes doesn't look great aside from SEC standings (unless they factor in that we played Mizzou). RPI and SOS put us behind Texas, UGA, Auburn, Vandy, and Ark (got the h2h though). We do have a pretty good record vs Q1 and Q2 though
Win percent vs Q1/Q2 and total Q1 wins:
UGA .567 11
Auburn .633 14
Vandy .571 15
Texas .690 15
Arky .619 12
LSU .655 13
Comparing those SEC teams resumes doesn't look great aside from SEC standings (unless they factor in that we played Mizzou). RPI and SOS put us behind Texas, UGA, Auburn, Vandy, and Ark (got the h2h though). We do have a pretty good record vs Q1 and Q2 though
Win percent vs Q1/Q2 and total Q1 wins:
UGA .567 11
Auburn .633 14
Vandy .571 15
Texas .690 15
Arky .619 12
LSU .655 13
This post was edited on 5/12/25 at 8:27 am
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:22 am to Yeti_Chaser
quote:
What's the most the SEC has ever gotten?
I don't know how good that will be to go off. The SEC, as well as other conferences, are not the same as previous years.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:23 am to Bacon84
quote:
I think 2 gets us a top 8 seed, and a sweep virtually ensures it.
You think? We may be a lock right now, winning 2 guarantees it. A sweep locks in a top four seed.
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:25 am to Bacon84
quote:
think 2 gets us a top 8 seed, and a sweep virtually ensures it.
Personally think 1 win does - but honestly may already be locked in
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