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Early round upset predictions
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:44 am
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:44 am
Unless I've skimmed over it I don't see a similar thread already so figured I'd start one. What are some of the 1/2 round games you're thinking upsets? Of course the 12/5 is usually a trendy pick. I feel like I haven't watched near as much NCAAB this year as usual so I'm mostly clueless on my upsets this year.
Drake over Missouri seems to be a somewhat common one I've seen so far. I'm really not sold on Clemson at ALL so I have no qualms taking Mcneese. Vandy and Arkansas as 10s have piqued my interest although a 10 over a 7 isn't really anything to write home about I guess.
Who are some of the real sleepers as double digit seeds I should be looking for?
Drake over Missouri seems to be a somewhat common one I've seen so far. I'm really not sold on Clemson at ALL so I have no qualms taking Mcneese. Vandy and Arkansas as 10s have piqued my interest although a 10 over a 7 isn't really anything to write home about I guess.
Who are some of the real sleepers as double digit seeds I should be looking for?
14
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:51 am to WG_Dawg
Troy over Kentucky wouldn’t surprise me but there’s no real incentive to pick that in a bracket
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:51 am to WG_Dawg
Colorado State is favored as a 12 seed over Memphis.
I like UCSD and VCU also
I like UCSD and VCU also
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:51 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Who are some of the real sleepers as double digit seeds I should be looking for?
Torvik has UC San Diego as a Top 25 team over the last 5 weeks. I have them going to S16
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:51 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Drake over Missouri
Missouri is a 6 point favorite. You call that an upset?
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:56 am to tzimme4
Yes upsets are when a higher seed beats a lower seed regardless of the line.
I don’t expect a 16 over 1 or a 14 over 3 this year
I don’t expect a 16 over 1 or a 14 over 3 this year
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:56 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
UC San Diego
I don’t get how they are an upset pick. I watched them play a couple of times, they don’t impress me much.
Michigan is going to turn them over and dominate the glass.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 11:57 am to tzimme4
quote:
Drake over Missouri
quote:
Missouri is a 6 point favorite
quote:
You call that an upset?
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:02 pm to WG_Dawg
I say beware of UNC. It seems like every year, the team on the bubble that got in that probably shouldn't have gotten in makes a run.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:15 pm to usc6158
I had each of those as well.
Michigan got screwed in the draw.
Michigan got screwed in the draw.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:20 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Torvik has UC San Diego as a Top 25 team over the last 5 weeks. I have them going to S16
ooh good one. What do you look at when making picks besides Torvik? Does stuff like NET come into play or is that too broad?
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:26 pm to WG_Dawg
I have Xavier getting to the sweet 16
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:30 pm to WG_Dawg
If you like March Madness trends, last season was just the third time in the last 27 years that all 2 seeds reached the S16. If you follow, think you almost have to look at St. John's against Arkansas or Kansas. Last few 7/10 seeds to bounce a 2 have come from power conferences.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:32 pm to hoopsgalore
I picked Omaha to beat St. John's and make it to the elite 8
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:43 pm to Brodeur
UC-San Diego or San Diego Stare?
The latter is having a down year by their standards. UC-San Diego has been crushing their opposition, albeit in an easy conference.
Fewer losses than everyone in D-1 besides Duke and Drake.
The latter is having a down year by their standards. UC-San Diego has been crushing their opposition, albeit in an easy conference.
Fewer losses than everyone in D-1 besides Duke and Drake.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:51 pm to usc6158
quote:
Colorado State is favored as a 12 seed over Memphis.
Medved is a good coach, but he can make games ugly and he hasn't had much success in the NCAA Tournament. If they were playing anyone else but Memphis, I would fade CSU. Memphis though is your boom/bust team. They have top 20 talent (maybe even top 15), but they don't always play to that level. That's why despite being a 5 seed, they are ranked 51st in KenPom...behind all of the 11 seeded playing in the First 4 games. If it clicks, Memphis can beat anyone. I just don't trust Hardaway to make it happen.
quote:
I like UCSD
The advanced metrics love them for such a small program. They didn't play a great schedule, but they dominated it for the most part. I want to pick them, but I think Michigan is a tough matchup with their size.
VCU is a trendy pick. They are really good and BYU seems to always fade in the tournament
If you want to go deep, I like Yale over A&M. Yale's HC has been there forever and has a lot of tournament experience (they beat #4 Auburn last year). A&M's offense blows. The only way they score consistently (if Taylor isn't on) is by dominating the offensive glass. For his part, Buzz has been come an early exit coach. He's only made it past the first weekend once in his last 5 tournaments. This is his best team at A&M. But sometimes bad offenses can go REALLY bad in March. They are also 2-5 in their last seven games. One of the wins was @ Auburn (great) the other @ LSU (who has become great at losing to everyone)
This post was edited on 3/18/25 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:56 pm to WG_Dawg
I like Akron. They have poised upper-classmen with tournament experience from last year.
Posted on 3/18/25 at 12:59 pm to dukke v
quote:
I have Xavier getting to the sweet 16
quote:
by dukke v
Texas ML +135
Posted on 3/18/25 at 1:02 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
What do you look at when making picks besides Torvik?
I used to use a mix of KenPom, Torvik, and other metrics to fill out my bracket.
This year, I’m trying not to overthink things. Seems like every year someone who has watched approximately 0 minutes of college basketball ends up winning the groups I’m in.
This year, I’m just using best teams over last 5 weeks on Torvik as a baseline but honestly just picking t what I feel.
If you want to take a deeper dive into the analytics, this guy has some pretty cool stuff
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 3/18/25 at 1:08 pm to diddlydawg7
Some other fun facts that may or may not matter:
Every champion since 1985 has made it to the semi-finals of their conference tournament. Here are those teams this year:
Every champion since 2004 was ranked in the Top 12 of the Week 6 Top 25:
Also:
Teams that satisfy all 3:
Tennessee
Auburn
Duke
Marquette
Bama
Florida
Every champion since 1985 has made it to the semi-finals of their conference tournament. Here are those teams this year:
Every champion since 2004 was ranked in the Top 12 of the Week 6 Top 25:
Also:
Teams that satisfy all 3:
Tennessee
Auburn
Duke
Marquette
Bama
Florida
This post was edited on 3/18/25 at 1:12 pm
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