Not sure if Trump could have handled this any worse for market purposes

At this point it seems pretty obvious he is trying to orchestrate a mini recession early on - can "blame" the economy he was given. Bond yields drop as people flock to "safety". It then forces the Fed's hand to lower rates. Debt can be refinanced at the lowerrates thus improving the future outlook. Markets get the adrenalin injection they have learned to be addicted to heading into the 2026 and the midterms

He’s doing what he needs to do, got to have uncertainty to bring the market and ten year yields down. It’s the only way to kill inflation and refinance the debt, cause Powell will hold rates high without something in the dual mandate to falter; so Trump is helping everyone out, except those that will lose their jobs in the reset.

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The only way to refinance our debt is by creating a short term economic crash. Bessent basically admitted as much in his CNBC interview. Anyone who didn’t swiftly move to safety after that is just plain uninformed

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Huh?

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He’s doing what he needs to do, got to have uncertainty to bring the market and ten year yields down. It’s the only way to kill inflation and refinance the debt, cause Powell will hold rates high without something in the dual mandate to falter; so Trump is helping everyone out, except those that will lose their jobs in the reset.

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This sounds like a new talking point now that the market has clearly shown they’re not happy with the delivery of these tariffs.

Also, this idea of “refinancing” the debt is asinine. The government can’t just refinance their long term debt. Only around 25% of the US debt matures within the next 12 months, and the government cannot simply refinance it all in long term bills without putting significant upward pressure on long term rates - the supply/demand imbalance would destroy whatever he’s allegedly trying to do.

“Only around 25% of the US debt matures within the next 12 months, and the government cannot simply refinance it all in long term bills without putting significant upward pressure on long term rates “


Yes, around 8-10 trillion rolls over of the 36 Trillion, but you need to refinance that at a cheap rate, and Since Yellen didn’t, when the 30 year rates were zero, it’s going to bite everyone now that rates are much higher. She financed everything at the short term rates, and now Trump is in a pickle, can’t really spend much of anything, tax relief, etc, cause servicing the debt will be the highest expenditure in the budget very soon…

I don't like it either, but I don't think he's had much wiggle room if he really wants to address our overall increasing trade deficit.

Canada and Mexico are our nearest trading partners and both have been very protectionist in trade with the US. I can't blame them, but at the same time what benefits them doesn't benefit the US and the US should be any President's focus.

They have a massive trade dependency on us (US trade is something like 1/4-1/3 of their GDPs each, while together they make up less than 3% of ours) so if Trump can't bring them into alignment with that much leverage, other trading partners like China or the EU are going to see him as weak.

My gut feeling is that he under-estimated Canada, thinking they would come to the table sooner rather than get their backs up this much. I think he probably had some plan for ratcheting up the heat over time, but didn't really think he would need to use it so soon.

All this sky screaming about the market for what doesn’t even amount to a run of the mill correction at this point.

I’m going to laugh when this thing V-recovers by Memorial Day.

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But you can’t just drop 8-10 trillion with 30 year maturities and expect those rates to go lower. That’s the rub.

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Well yeah, unless you create the low rate environment, ie….Trump

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Well yeah, unless you create the low rate environment, ie….Trump

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You don’t seem to understand how supply and demand works on US treasuries. Who is going to buy up all of this long term debt for a country that hasn’t had a fiscally responsible government in 30 years?

This would be exponentially more supply than the market could handle.

There have been no mis steps to this point. If you are going to finally stand up to foreign tariffs, there is going to be a detox period. Lets get it over with.