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Can Kellen Moore turn Derek Carr into crucial stat QB from a trash stat QB?
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:19 am
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:19 am
At this moment in Derek Carr's career he reminds me of Jim Everett. Jim Everett was the king of stat padding after getting handled in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters only to pad his stats after the opposing teams defense goes into prevent mode in the 4th quarter.
Although Aaron Brooks was not necessarily a state padding QB he was definitely not a crucial stat QB. You could see a big difference in this history of Saints' stat padding QBs and crucial stat QB in Drew Brees.
When Drew came in, he was converting third and fourth downs when it mattered, in crucial game time situations. The Saints need a QB like this again.
I have no idea what it takes to turn a trash stat QB into a crucial stat QB but hopefully Kellen Moore has the blueprint.
Although Aaron Brooks was not necessarily a state padding QB he was definitely not a crucial stat QB. You could see a big difference in this history of Saints' stat padding QBs and crucial stat QB in Drew Brees.
When Drew came in, he was converting third and fourth downs when it mattered, in crucial game time situations. The Saints need a QB like this again.
I have no idea what it takes to turn a trash stat QB into a crucial stat QB but hopefully Kellen Moore has the blueprint.
7
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:26 am to GumboPot
What are you calling derek carr stats game 1 and game 2 of 2024 when we were healthy?
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:32 am to GumboPot
I think we need to start with whether having Carr on this team is a viable option given the salary cap problems we have and the goal of solving those problems in the semi-near future.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:33 am to Chad504boy
quote:
What are you calling derek carr stats game 1 and game 2 of 2024 when we were healthy?
Team stats.
Seriously, where would the Bengals be without Burrow? DA is probably not getting fired if Burrow is running the show at the Saints. Same with JD and Washington. Imagine Derek Carr QBing Washington?
The point is, the Saints need to get better at the most important position on the field. Can that be done with coaching? I think it's possible. Baltimore did it with a team led by Trent Dilfer where the QB position was probably the most inconsequential of any Superbowl winning team in NFL history.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:35 am to GumboPot
He’s 34. He is what he is at this point in his career.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:36 am to Chad504boy
quote:
What are you calling derek carr stats game 1 and game 2 of 2024 when we were healthy?
Correct me if I’m wrong as it’s been a minute. Didn’t we have crazy YAC plays in those two games. I feel like with the fresh legs we busted open several short passes into huge gains/TDs.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:37 am to GumboPot
quote:
Team stats.
I think you're getting lost in your own head. Derek Carr has already shown he can be the type of qb you are asking KM to turn Carr into.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:37 am to St Augustine
quote:
He’s 34. He is what he is at this point in his career.
I want Kellen to have success so badly. I see Derek Carr as the biggest barrier to success. It would be an incredible coaching feat if Kellen can overcome it.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:40 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Derek Carr has already shown he can be the type of qb you are asking KM to turn Carr into.
I never got the impression that Carr exceled on 3rd and 4th downs and in the redzone. I never researched it but I just watched it in games.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 10:58 am to GumboPot
Saints have a winning record with Carr. What's their record without him?
Posted on 2/14/25 at 11:07 am to msstate7
"Saints have a winning record with Carr. What's their record without him?"
I have no problem if the Saints decide because of cap considerations or to build for the future, that it is time to let Carr go. But it is also true that Carr is by far the best QB presently on the roster.
I have no problem if the Saints decide because of cap considerations or to build for the future, that it is time to let Carr go. But it is also true that Carr is by far the best QB presently on the roster.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 11:08 am to GumboPot
The eye test is an important part of judging a player, but the eye test can also be biased. With that said, trying to judge a player on stats can easily be biased with how easily it is to manipulate stats or find the ones that serve your argument the best.
Regarding his 3rd & 4th down abilities, you can check out his splits on pro football reference
Not killing it on 3rd down, but also not that far off of his average. Total completion percentage in 2024 was 67.74%, 3rd down was 64.56%. Overall 2024 QB rating of 101.0, 3rd down was 109.6. Also had 60.78% conversion rate when he actually completed the pass, 38.8% overall. Would have to imagine that is pretty low when compared to his peers.
4th down was abysmal, but he also only had 5 attempts (~1.6% of his drop backs)
IMO, there is not enough red zone info here. On the surface, it looks like only 10 1st downs and 8 TDs in the red zone on 27 drop backs. But, the more important factor would be the number of RZ trips. Make it to the 20 and take 3 attempts to get a 1st, and another 3 attempts to get a TD looks like a bad trip, but it did ultimately lead to the desired result (this never happened, just using it as an example of why I believe these splits are missing important info).
An interesting stat is inside the 10-yard line. He threw 7 passes and completed 4 of them for 12 yards. All 4 completions went for a TD. Obviously the completion percentage is low, I'd imagine that's the lowest part for all QBs due to the tight windows; but that efficiency is not terrible.
Also, looks like the stat padding isn't as bad as many people claim (at least in 2024). Only 98 yards and 1 TD when trailing with less than 4 minutes in the game.
His accuracy when he has more time in the pocket is laughable. IMO, this is a lack of ability to process and get through reads, and he is much better when he is able to make that decision within his first 3 reads. I.E., does better when he can go off of the play design, decision making/accuracy struggles when he has to ad-lib.
Regarding his 3rd & 4th down abilities, you can check out his splits on pro football reference
Not killing it on 3rd down, but also not that far off of his average. Total completion percentage in 2024 was 67.74%, 3rd down was 64.56%. Overall 2024 QB rating of 101.0, 3rd down was 109.6. Also had 60.78% conversion rate when he actually completed the pass, 38.8% overall. Would have to imagine that is pretty low when compared to his peers.
4th down was abysmal, but he also only had 5 attempts (~1.6% of his drop backs)
IMO, there is not enough red zone info here. On the surface, it looks like only 10 1st downs and 8 TDs in the red zone on 27 drop backs. But, the more important factor would be the number of RZ trips. Make it to the 20 and take 3 attempts to get a 1st, and another 3 attempts to get a TD looks like a bad trip, but it did ultimately lead to the desired result (this never happened, just using it as an example of why I believe these splits are missing important info).
An interesting stat is inside the 10-yard line. He threw 7 passes and completed 4 of them for 12 yards. All 4 completions went for a TD. Obviously the completion percentage is low, I'd imagine that's the lowest part for all QBs due to the tight windows; but that efficiency is not terrible.
Also, looks like the stat padding isn't as bad as many people claim (at least in 2024). Only 98 yards and 1 TD when trailing with less than 4 minutes in the game.
His accuracy when he has more time in the pocket is laughable. IMO, this is a lack of ability to process and get through reads, and he is much better when he is able to make that decision within his first 3 reads. I.E., does better when he can go off of the play design, decision making/accuracy struggles when he has to ad-lib.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 11:11 am to Weekend Warrior79
Posted on 2/14/25 at 11:45 am to GumboPot
Moore is canning Carr anyway so we won’t have to worry about it
Posted on 2/14/25 at 11:48 am to GumboPot
Derek Carr will not start week one for the Saints.
Putting positivity out into the universe.
Putting positivity out into the universe.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 12:06 pm to whitetiger1234
In the presser Moore did give Carr compliments but said he was going to go through the process with Carr. When asked about Kamara he was excited and spoke about being lucky to have him and he is one of one.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 12:11 pm to GumboPot
No miracle worker can turn Carr into anything other than dogshit.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 1:11 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
What are you calling derek carr stats game 1 and game 2 of 2024 when we were healthy?
He has made 170 career starts
Can Moore
- shore up the OL both starters and depth
- add an alpha WR who is effective from jump
- add a TE with a pulse
- keep Olave and shaheed healthy
- add WR depth
- fix the defense
Posted on 2/14/25 at 1:42 pm to Chad504boy
quote:When did he show that? He is not a leader. He throws his teammates under the bus. He intentionally sat out until the Panthers game so that he did not have to face a tough defense. He played more with an offense line that was a healthy as it was all season than any other QB. He is what he is, an average QB who can put up decent stats, especially in trash time.
Derek Carr has already shown he can be the type of qb you are asking KM to turn Carr into.
Posted on 2/14/25 at 2:05 pm to moneyg
I don't think we have a choice unless we pad a trade to have someone take his cap number off our hands!
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