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How will tariffs impact the markets tomorrow and this week?

Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:22 am
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21061 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:22 am
Any predictions or expectations?
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38299 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:31 am to
Markets hate uncertainty. I think just watching the Bitcoin price action this weekend tells you where we are headed tomorrow and this week.

Thankfully, I don't see this "trade war" lasting more than a week or two. We are too powerful and stubborn.
Posted by zzemme
Member since Nov 2008
10378 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:44 am to
I expect a few down weeks until everything settles down
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
29864 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Markets hate uncertainty. I think just watching the Bitcoin price action this weekend tells you where we are headed tomorrow and this week.
100% agree.
quote:

Thankfully, I don't see this "trade war" lasting more than a week or two. We are too powerful and stubborn.

This I'm less sure about. On the one hand, the US is obviously an economic behemoth. On the other, Trump loves being adored. If the boos get loud enough, it's hard to say what he will do.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38299 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:54 am to
Our leverage here can not be overstated. Canada can not afford the route they are about to go down.

Mexico on the other hand will just devalue their currency 25%. I'm expecting to see $1=25 MXN if this continues on.

Time to put AMERICA first baby.
Posted by kaaj24
Dallas
Member since Jan 2010
784 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 8:59 am to
Trump is very tuned into what stock market is doing that makes me feel good in long term.

However, short term it will be rocky.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
47222 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:01 am to
Feels like we are down until the details ultimately shake out. Definitely adds a lot of uncertainty.

If past tells us anything these tariffs eventually we have very little teeth once the complaining starts
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
29864 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:03 am to
quote:

Our leverage here can not be overstated. Canada can not afford the route they are about to go down.

In a vacuum, I agree with you. But Trump ran on lowering the cost of groceries. You and I both knew that was an absurd promise, but I've been saying since the election that I foresee a large swath of middle America being in for a very rude awakening if they thought their monthly budgets were already tight.

Now, is there a solid chunk of Trump's base that would eat canned beans for years if it meant "winning"? Absolutely. But we'll see how Trump handles having to listen to the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the large chunk of the population in the middle who support him but care far more about the balance of their checking account than they do shifting balances on a trade ledger.

We live in interesting times, no doubt.
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
279 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Any predictions or expectations?


The only short term prediction I have any confidence in is increasing volatility. Long term, seems pretty obvious that we're headed toward usd weakened against the yuan, yuan strengthened against usd. Both fall against gold/btc/commodities as USTs are relocated from foreign CB balance sheets to the Fed. US manufactures more of its consumption, China consumes more of its production. Europe/GB are long term collateral damage, Mexico/Canada/Taiwan are short term collateral damage.

Both Trump and Xi seem to be aiming for this outcome. There will be some chaos and a lot of volatility before the negotiating table is set. Deepseek and tariffs are the opening volleys.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
25316 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:18 am to
No predictions but one fact.

Been in the market since the mid 90s. Life of the portfolio 54% to the good. Made a lot of money.

Taking all my profit and 50% of investment out. Going to cash.

Two Reasons:

Getting ready to retire (again). My third retirement all with different pots of money:

Not risking my profit or investment because Trump wants a trade war. I dont think this ends well for America and investors (non oligarch investors) bottom line.

I'm sure I'm wrong, enjoy.

Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
47222 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:22 am to
quote:

Been in the market since the mid 90s. Life of the portfolio 54%


Only 54% since the 90s i hope that's a typo
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
25316 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Only 54% since the 90s i hope that's a typo


Yeah, there was this thing called a "tech bubble". Good lesson. Really good lesson.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
29864 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:47 am to
quote:

Yeah, there was this thing called a "tech bubble". Good lesson. Really good lesson.

If you invested every dollar you had at the very peak of the Dot Com bubble (NASDAQ at 4,963 points in the year 2000) and never invested another dollar, your initial investment would be up 295% today.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21061 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:52 am to
quote:

Yeah, there was this thing called a "tech bubble". Good lesson. Really good lesson.
Still, something isn’t adding up. Without even looking at a chart, you could have gone ALL IN in both ‘99 and ‘07 and still be well above 100%
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43086 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:52 am to
i am not optimistic either short or long term. an exogenous event like this (COVID, trade war, etc) can upend the markets without discretion, and reset years of careful planning by the little guy.

this is straight up insanity that will very much hurt the very middle class that voted this administration in by acclaim. i would very much like to hear any arguments to the contrary
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21061 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:53 am to
SECOND Question:
How’s everyone taking advantage of volatility?
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
3092 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:54 am to
I’m worried because Canada has a bit of a “Trump” card. Oil. We import a shite ton of their crude.



They can make this politically untenable for Trump if they want to do so. They could lose every other aspect of the trade war, but Trump will get roasted if gas prices increase.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
29579 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:55 am to
quote:

Been in the market since the mid 90s. Life of the portfolio 54% to the good.


Yikes
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43086 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:57 am to
quote:

But we'll see how Trump handles having to listen to the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the large chunk of the population in the middle who support him but care far more about the balance of their checking account than they do shifting balances on a trade ledger
hey, no offense, but... he never will need another vote from anyone ever again. he has been handed all three branches of government on a silver platter. WTF makes anyone think he cares one iota about how these policies affect anyone but him and his cronies/backers/cohorts.

maybe it will work maybe it wont, i said above i'm pretty certain it wont (because it never has). either way the outcome will not be affected by popular outcry
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43086 posts
Posted on 2/2/25 at 9:58 am to
quote:

but Trump will get roasted if gas prices increase.
by who?
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