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Question about Early Voting and "cannibalization"
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:17 pm
I am pleasantly surprised by the EV data for MAGA, and want to thank you deep-divers for keeping us up to date. However.....
Does anyone know of a metric to assess how much of an Election Day drop the Rs will suffer because of banking the early vote? IIRC, Florida EV for Dems was thought to be enough in 2016, but it eventually became apparent that they had cannibalized their Total Vote, and Election Day R turnout was enough to give the state to DJT.
I would like to think that he new-voter registrations would account for the increase in EV, and that the traditional R voters will still vote on Election Day - but I would like to base that on some objective measure.
TIA
Does anyone know of a metric to assess how much of an Election Day drop the Rs will suffer because of banking the early vote? IIRC, Florida EV for Dems was thought to be enough in 2016, but it eventually became apparent that they had cannibalized their Total Vote, and Election Day R turnout was enough to give the state to DJT.
I would like to think that he new-voter registrations would account for the increase in EV, and that the traditional R voters will still vote on Election Day - but I would like to base that on some objective measure.
TIA
4
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:28 pm to jat912
In Nevada only around 2% of R early voters are new voters. So far it’s just the same repeat voters going early instead of Election Day
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:29 pm to jat912
Across the country voting is down by Democrats. There is no enthusiasm for her.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:29 pm to OldManRiver
How many voted in 2020 and 2016?
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:31 pm to LSUGrrrl
According to the chart in the tweet, 8.5% were new voters in 2020. No idea on 2016
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:35 pm to OldManRiver
My question is about the early voters. If a small percentage of them are first time voters, what percentage of the remaining early voters voted in 2020 and 2016.
Just because they aren’t first time voters doesn’t mean they voted for Trump in the last 2 elections.
Just because they aren’t first time voters doesn’t mean they voted for Trump in the last 2 elections.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:47 pm to jat912
I have talked to more than one (R) and they said they would be more likely to vote if the lines aren't ridiculously long.
So, early voting may trim the election day lines down
So, early voting may trim the election day lines down
Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:53 pm to jat912
I'm waiting until Tuesday.
I can't wait to vote NO for all of the Oklahoma state Supreme Court justices and also vote no to Prop 833.
I can't wait to vote NO for all of the Oklahoma state Supreme Court justices and also vote no to Prop 833.
Posted on 10/27/24 at 12:10 am to OldManRiver
quote:Odd assertion. Tom Bonier has pushed the narrative that Dems are more energized than Repubs this cycle. This appears to be more of the same. "New voters" is not a sole correlate to "intensity." A surge in low-propensity voters does correlate, but Bonier isn't measuring that metric.
In Nevada only around 2% of R early voters are new voters. So far it’s just the same repeat voters going early instead of Election Day
He knows better, which raises obvious questions about his motivation. My understanding is a higher percentage of GOP early voters fall outside LV/VLV parameters, indicating greater enthusiasm and less election day vote cannibalism.
Posted on 10/27/24 at 12:16 am to NC_Tigah
You are correct. Tom Bonier is a liberal hack. Low Propensity voters vs High Propensity voters are what the data people are comparing. Using New Voters as a spin to that comparison is what he is doing
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