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No combination for Harris to win

Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:16 am
Posted by RedHog260
Member since Oct 2023
1016 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:16 am
Polymarket prediction

Oddschecker
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 10:20 am
Posted by Paddyshack
Land of the Free
Member since Sep 2015
10972 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:20 am to
Sure there is.

Mail-in ballots, illegal aliens, dead voters, busted mains, election challenges, alternate electors, outright violence, Biden's F-16s that he has threatened to use.

There is definitely a combination for Harris to win.
Posted by prouddawg
Member since Sep 2024
6910 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:23 am to
I just don’t see all hell not breaking loose if they cheat to the extent they’re gonna have to cheat to steal it. But then again, I’m sitting here 30# overweight on my iPhone in the A/C, so it’s not like I’m leading a charge or anything.
Posted by POTUS2024
Member since Nov 2022
20943 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:25 am to
God help us all if Kamala "wins" - people really should not underestimate what Democrats will do to stay in power.
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
17593 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:26 am to
Are you kidding me? Biden was dead man walking, they hid him in a basement blaming COVID. He was beyond unlikeable and from 11pm through 5am, magical votes appeared, They did it once, they know how to do it again.

This may be tougher because of the swap, what Biden became, and how God awful Harris is as a candidate, but don't ever think she can't win.
Posted by UncleRuckus
Member since Feb 2013
9627 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:26 am to
quote:

people really should not underestimate what Democrats will do to stay in power.

Deep state isn’t giving up power.
Posted by RedHog260
Member since Oct 2023
1016 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:30 am to
Legitimately that is.

Are you kidding me? Biden was dead man walking, they hid him in a basement blaming COVID. He was beyond unlikeable and from 11pm through 5am, magical votes appeared, They did it once, they know how to do it again.

This may be tougher because of the swap, what Biden became, and how God awful Harris is as a candidate, but don't ever think she can't win
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138057 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:31 am to
quote:

Mail-in ballots, illegal aliens, dead voters,

This is why I think she wins.

I don’t think Trump is up enough to counter the amount of shite they’re about to pull.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
112282 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:33 am to
It ain't over until Stacey Abrams sings
Posted by FooManChoo
Member since Dec 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:33 am to
I expect to see examples of 150% turnout across the country, especially in blue districts of swing states.
Posted by JellyRoll
Member since Apr 2024
1417 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:36 am to
quote:

Are you kidding me? Biden was dead man walking, they hid him in a basement blaming COVID. He was beyond unlikeable and from 11pm through 5am, magical votes appeared, They did it once, they know how to do it again.

This may be tougher because of the swap, what Biden became, and how God awful Harris is as a candidate, but don't ever think she can't win.


yep, I am not confident until Trump is named the winner three weeks after the election. It should be a crime not to have a result the night of the election.
Posted by MyNameIsTokyo
Member since Oct 2024
46 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:41 am to
its like yall are trying to go to jail.

UK gambling websites are not polls.

and dont say theyre the most accurate historically, rules are different for each one, and these two didnt exist last time, this is their first election.

if you think youre gonna hold up a gambling map after trump loses and claim it proves the election was stolen, and then pull your bullshite again, you are living in a fantasy world.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
50769 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:42 am to
If Trump gets 81 million, and Dems get 91 million, something's fricky.
Posted by Perfect Circle
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
7676 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:47 am to
Listen very closely. It's going to take a MIRACLE for Trump to beat the cheat.
Posted by LSUbacchus81
Hendersonville, TN
Member since Aug 2007
5462 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:50 am to
how do people allow themselves to be this naive after everything we've witnessed over the last 4 years?
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
34042 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:57 am to
quote:

This is why I think she wins.

I don’t think Trump is up enough to counter the amount of shite they’re about to pull.


"Up enough" is a bit ambiguous because there are only a few actual "points" on the scoreboard (early voting). So determining whether or not Trump is "up" is based upon the polls. To that end, here's what the polling looks like TODAY in comparison to 2016 and 2020 on this date:

Pennsylvania:

2016 (Clinton + 6.2)
2020 (Biden +4.9)
2024 (Trump +0.8)

2016 actual (Trump +0.7)
2020 actual (Biden +1.2)

Arizona

2016 (Clinton +1.5)
2020 (Biden +3.2)
2024 (Trump +1.8)

2016 actual (Trump +3.5)
2020 actual (Biden +0.4)

Wisconsin

2016 (Clinton +6.5)
2020 (Biden +4.6)
2024 (Trump +0.4)

2016 actual (Trump +1.8)
2020 actual (Biden +0.6)

Nevada

2016 (Clinton +4.7)
2020 (Biden +5.2)
2024 (Trump +0.7)

2016 actual (Clinton +2.4)
2020 actual (Biden +2.4)

North Carolina

2016 (Clinton +2.9)
2020 (Biden +1.8)
2024 (Trump +0.5)

2016 actual (Trump 3.7)
2020 actual (Trump +1.3)

Georgia

2016 (Trump +4.0)
2020 (Biden +0.8)
2024 (Trump +2.5)

2016 actual (Trump +5.1)
2020 actual (Biden +0.3)

National Vote Poll average:

2016 (Clinton +6.1)
2020 (Biden +7.9)
2024 (Harris +0.8)

2016 actual (Clinton +2.1)
2020 actual (Biden +4.4)

Trump significantly over performed (or the Democrats significantly underperformed) relative to the 10/22 polling in every one of those states. So if Harris were to win it would be a huge deviation relative to the polling in both 2016 and 2020. I'm not saying that can't happen. But given the data from the last two elections (both involving Trump) significantly overshot the Democratic support in all of those swing states, the fact that Trump is up in all of them today seems to suggest his is likely "up" even more than what the polling suggest.
Posted by TN Tygah
Member since Nov 2023
7837 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 10:58 am to
There’s definitely a path for her to get to 270

It just seems less likely now. But this election could easily go her way.
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21483 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:06 am to
I've already voted. Things wont matter till Election Day. They may cheat, they may not cheat. Obviously there was a huge reason for them stealing 2020. Ever since 2016 globalist have been disruptive to the transfer of power with false stories and "impeachments". They knew the power that Trump held especially with nominating judges. They needed to steal 2020 to finalize some protections before Trump can take back over. I would be truly somewhat shocked if they double down on 2024.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138057 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:09 am to
quote:

Trump significantly over performed (or the Democrats significantly underperformed) relative to the 10/22 polling in every one of those states. So if Harris were to win it would be a huge deviation relative to the polling in both 2016 and 2020. I'm not saying that can't happen. But given the data from the last two elections (both involving Trump) significantly overshot the Democratic support in all of those swing states, the fact that Trump is up in all of them today seems to suggest his is likely "up" even more than what the polling suggest.

I will never rule out democrats magically finding votes in the 11th hour like they did in 2020.
Posted by Barstools
Atlanta
Member since Jan 2016
11211 posts
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:12 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 3:32 am
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