What age do you think you'll retire and how much do you think you'll have

I’m hoping for 55 with 2.5 in savings. I have a small side business that I hope to ramp up after retirement.
Currently at 1.3 plus a pension. This is not accounting for social security.

Am I crazy with the math seeming like you'll have a ton left over? I was listening to Dave and a guy at 55 with 2.5 mil wanted to retire and wasn't sure and Ramsey said man, you've got so much you can live as long as you want.

Somewhere between 50 and 52. Current projections put us at about 6-7m.

Unless you are already very close to 60, you have much more long term faith in Social Security and the USD in general than I do.

I semi retired at 45. Just work part time as desired but dont need the $. Havent tapped into investments yet just living on military pension. We have enough in retirement and taxable to sustain our lifestyle at 4% SWR without pension. I'd like to hit $6m but that's just an arbitrary #

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The "4%" rule, and a lot of other suggestions for retirement spending, are made for financially ignorant people. There's nothing at all wrong with going by it, it is relatively sound advice, but if the long term stock market return is greater than 10%, you can certainly do better most years if you want to accept the risk and burden of managing your own money.

I have posted my situation before. I retired at age 56 with about half as much assets as I thought I needed. I lost my job and decided I didn't want another one. When I really crunched the numbers, I decided since my bring home pay was half my salary anyway, I could continue to live the same lifestyle with half as much as I had planned. Three years in my outlook and assets have only improved.

If you expect to get a bunch of expensive hobbies, travel the world, or worse yet, buy a boat, then you better stick to the 4% rule or something more conservative. On the other hand, when you retire, you won't be contributing to 401K/IRA, and won't be paying FICA. You may not be paying into an HSA. You may not be paying for a house anymore. What you need out of a car might be a lot different. You might be able to keep your taxes in the (currently) 12% bracket and live very well. At least in my case, I spend a lot less money in retirement than I did while working.

Historic stock market returns are 10%+, but they are not consistent. It seems to me that there are many years where you could withdraw a lot more money then 4%, and then some years, where you better try to tighten up and not take as much. That sounds like something I have done all my life. So if I have been practicing to live like that so long, why can't I just decide what makes sense each year and take what I need/want?

I use the 4% to plan for spending, but I expect to tap it much more heavily at times based on conditions. However, once SS kicks in I won't even hit it for 4%, regardless of what age I take SS.

It's really the same as trying to lose weight. You know what you can eat every day, and you know that eating a little more one day won't really hurt in the long run if you get back on plan, but sometimes, you do have to adjust your plan.

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you have much more long term faith in Social Security and the USD in general than I do.

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Social security will be funded as long as the US government is solvent. If the US government becomes insolvent then we're all doing a Mad Max anyway.

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Somewhere between 55 to 60 and I’m hoping 8 mil to 10 mil.

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Truly wondering, do you think you'll need / spend that much money or do you just want to accumulate a lot to pass on?

Well the most common interpretation of the rule is that you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year 1 and then withdraw that same amount, adjusted for inflation, each year thereafter.


You're not supposed to look at your portfolio on January 1st each year and say "I can withdraw 4% of this number". That reintroduces SOR risk each year.