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Started By
Message
The Wall Street 'fear gauge'...
Posted on 8/2/24 at 10:23 am
Posted on 8/2/24 at 10:23 am
Might as well bring this up.
What is the VIX.
Interpreting VIX levels can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and expected volatility. Here are some general guidelines:
1. Low VIX (Below 20):
• Indicates market stability and low volatility.
• Suggests investor confidence and a lack of fear.
• Often associated with bullish market conditions.
2. Moderate VIX (20-30):
• Reflects moderate volatility and some uncertainty.
• Can indicate a transition period in the market.
• Investors might be cautious but not overly fearful.
3. High VIX (Above 30):
• Signals high volatility and significant market uncertainty.
• Often associated with bearish market conditions or market corrections.
With the Dow currently down over 900 right now, its currently at 29.35 and has risen 10.76 as of this post. 56.91% increase. Whoa. For context, it was at 14.04 January 1st.
This "fear gauge" can be used to help investors make their next market move and to interpret patterns of expected future volatility before making investment decisions.
The VIX, and the Sahm Rule, are two key indicators to watch for market trends.
What is the VIX.
Interpreting VIX levels can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and expected volatility. Here are some general guidelines:
1. Low VIX (Below 20):
• Indicates market stability and low volatility.
• Suggests investor confidence and a lack of fear.
• Often associated with bullish market conditions.
2. Moderate VIX (20-30):
• Reflects moderate volatility and some uncertainty.
• Can indicate a transition period in the market.
• Investors might be cautious but not overly fearful.
3. High VIX (Above 30):
• Signals high volatility and significant market uncertainty.
• Often associated with bearish market conditions or market corrections.
With the Dow currently down over 900 right now, its currently at 29.35 and has risen 10.76 as of this post. 56.91% increase. Whoa. For context, it was at 14.04 January 1st.
This "fear gauge" can be used to help investors make their next market move and to interpret patterns of expected future volatility before making investment decisions.
The VIX, and the Sahm Rule, are two key indicators to watch for market trends.
This post was edited on 8/2/24 at 10:30 am
11
Posted on 8/2/24 at 10:42 am to Nole Man
quote:
the Sahm Rule
99% of this board had never heard of this until yesterday.
Posted on 8/2/24 at 12:53 pm to Nole Man
Back down to 25. Problematic numbers, but likely rate cuts on the horizon. 25 seems 'right'
Posted on 8/2/24 at 1:12 pm to slackster
It's not rules for stay at home moms?
Posted on 8/3/24 at 8:58 am to Nole Man
Posted on 8/3/24 at 4:08 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Problematic numbers, but likely rate cuts on the horizon
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Posted on 8/3/24 at 4:19 pm to Nole Man
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:08 am to Nole Man
Damn. Bought Oct 15c when it was at 12 and sold wayyyyyy to early. When 200% is too early.....smh
Posted on 8/5/24 at 9:19 am to bayoumuscle21
And there we go. Index mirrors reality. Opened at 55.11. Highest level since 2020 crash.
39.37 right now. Up 66.57%.
39.37 right now. Up 66.57%.
This post was edited on 8/5/24 at 9:21 am
Posted on 8/5/24 at 9:43 am to bayoumuscle21
Yeah, I sold calls a bit too early this morning. Can't complain too much though. Keep trying to buy puts today, but can't get a fill at what I think is a good price for speculation. VIX is like a flood, it goes down very, very quickly after it rises.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 11:40 am to Nole Man
And now only 31.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 11:44 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Back down to 25. Problematic numbers, but likely rate cuts on the horizon. 25 seems 'right'
Have to think, we’ve had about 15 threads made in the last 2 days of every Tom, Dick and Harry with a few dollars laying around trying to take advantage of a low market today. The amount of people purchasing more stock is doing a good bit to offset any losses. Most stuff is already about halfway back from where it was at the closing bell on Friday.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 12:21 pm to VolSquatch
I have weekly $25 puts Wednesday expiry. It's worked out well so far today.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 12:27 pm to Iowa Golfer
Peaked at 65 earlier 
Posted on 8/6/24 at 1:57 am to VolSquatch
buy buy buy
Posted on 8/6/24 at 6:51 am to Nonetheless
quote:
buy buy buy
Actually, I think we see a rebound today. If you look at the pre-market trading right now, for stocks in the "Magnificent Seven" for example, you're seeing 2-3% increases.
Some of the ETFs that mirror the VIX, like UVIX for example, are down over 26% in pre-market trading.
This post was edited on 8/6/24 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:23 am to Nole Man
Opened at 32.31. Currently at 27.02. Dow up 344.89 currently.
Fingers crossed the downward trend continues.
Fingers crossed the downward trend continues.
Posted on 8/6/24 at 11:17 am to Nole Man
A lot of it isn't even "vol going up". It's just rolling down to strikes where skew was already higher.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:44 am to Big Scrub TX
Dow futures higher. Current up $314. VIX closed down to 22.53. NVDA and MSFT up over 2% in pre-market trading.
Looks like another good day coming up.
Looks like another good day coming up.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:54 am to Nole Man
Sunday night, it seems like the world was coming to an end, reading this board. Wild times!
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