re: Ouch! 275k Jobs Added in February

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I am. Whether they say it out loud or not, I believe the Fed is as well. As long as we have positive GDP growth (especially if it's anything like Q3 & Q4), raising rates risks inflation going back up due to the liquidity problem we still have. We're going to have positive GDP as long as we have strong job creation and low Unemployment, but we're also going to have continued sticky inflation.

So something has to give and that something has to be a contraction. That's why all their talk of a "soft landing" is only as credible as was their talk about inflation being "transitory".

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I was 100% in this camp for the last couple years, now I'm more 50/50. With spending running above 6% of gdp it is just hard for a real slow down in gdp to develop.

CRE is a problem but consumers and corps termed out their debt for the most part during covid. People on the low end are upside down with 25% cc balances but middle and upper end folks are fine, sitting on 3% mortgages.

Higher for longer will eventually break things but the first to go will be the US Govt. Yellen did not term us out when she had the chance and I don't think it's because she's an idiot. I think it was due to the clownish amount of issuance. Now we're running at a clip of 1T every 100 days. The govt is paying a trillion a year in interest, mostly to boomers, and they're plowing it back into the economy (and invidia, lol).